Dan Mullen is not a great recruiter.
He’s not bad, but he’s not elite. But in the new reality of college football where the transfer portal exists, there’s a real question whether that even matters.
Historically, coaches have taken a step back in their third year. Nick Saban went 8-5 in his third year at LSU. Urban Meyer went 9-4 in his third year at Florida. Steve Spurrier took a step back in his third season (9-4) as well.
Those are really good records, but those are also really good coaches. Will Muschamp went 4-8 in his third year at Florida. Jim McElwain got fired in his third season.
So expecting a championship team in year three is probably unrealistic. The problem is, there are a lot of reasons that there is a window for Mullen to exploit right now. History says the 2020 team might take a step back.
But for Mullen’s tenure at Florida, the time to make a move is right now.
The SEC loses a ton of QBs
With the early entry of Georgia QB Jake Fromm into the NFL Draft, there is the potential for a shake-up at the top of the SEC.
Tua Tagovailoa is gone from Alabama and we saw what happened to that offense without an elite signal caller. That was with three potential first-round receivers as well, and two of those three guys are now gone.
LSU moves on from Joe Burrow in 2020. While the Tigers appear to have been able to keep Joe Brady for the time being, I doubt it’s a smooth transition from Burrow to Myles Brennan. Even in mop-up duty this year, Brennan has been less than spectacular (passer rating = 137.4).
The rest of the East is dealing with turnover, injuries and ineffectiveness at the most important position as well.
Lynn Bowden is gone from Kentucky. While Terry Wilson will be back, the Gators will get him early in the season coming off of a serious injury.
Senior transfers Kelly Bryant(Missouri) and Riley Neal (Vanderbilt) are gone as well. Ryan Hilinski showed some flashes at South Carolina, but still graded out as the worst QB in the SEC last season (passer rating = 113.4).
That means the returners are Jarrett Guarantano ane Kyle Trask. Guarantano played well down the stretch, but he was also benched early in the year before UT’s schedule got easier. He actually had a better passer rating than Trask, but was absolutely awful against Florida, Alabama and barely played against Georgia.
That leaves Trask. If he can build on his successful 2019 campaign, he is poised to be the best QB in the conference.
That’s a big deal for a lot of reasons. But the biggest reason is that teams that haven’t recruited at a top-5 level have only been able to win titles one other way: elite QB play.
Auburn did it with Cam Newton. Clemson did it with Deshaun Watson.
Trask gives Florida a chance to do it too in 2020.
Nobody is – or should be – scared of Jamie Newman
This past week it was announced that Jamie Newman will be transferring from Wake Forest to Georgia. Because he’s a graduate transfer, he’ll be eligible immediately.
That’s good news for the Gators.
Newman was a servicable QB for the Demon Deacons, but servicable doesn’t get you a title in the SEC. Heck, it only got Wake third place in the ACC Atlantic Division.
Newman completed 60.9 percent of his throws at a 7.9 yards per attempt average. He averaged 3.2 yards per rush on 180 carries. That equates to a YAR of 0.31, or just slightly above average.
But then you look at his splits.
QB Jamie Newman splits for the 2019 season at Wake Forest. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
He was terrible against decent teams. He was below average against top-75 teams. Basically, he played lights-out against two cupcakes and Utah State (80th in FPI) and played poorly against all others.
That really shows up in his home/road splits, where he had a passer rating of 157.1 at home but 128.8 away from home. Compare that to Trask, who had a home rating of 168.9 and a road rating of 149.0, including that trip to Baton Rouge.
Jake Fromm was bad in 2019, but he was excellent in 2017 and 2018. While he may have struggled last year, he showed he was capable of having a big game against an elite opponent and he carved up Florida each of the last three years.
I don’t think Florida will have to worry about that with Newman.
Georgia has no offense coming back
With the loss of Fromm and the transfer of guard Cade Mays to Tennessee, Georgia has a lot to replace.
Just checking on ya @jayer4 @defnotstickmag1? Yall good over there? pic.twitter.com/vm3xl8AoSA
— ATL Gator (@champton85) January 8, 2020
In fact, as pointed out in the above tweet, everybody is gone save for center Trey Hill and WR George Pickens.
Yes, Georgia has recruited at an unbelievable level. But experience matters too. We were reminded of that with Fromm’s struggles this year. Some of that was likely the switch to James Coley at offensive coordinator. But some of it was also due to the departures of J.J. Holloman, Riley Ridley, Mecole Hardman, Terry Godwin and Isaac Nauta.
This makes two straight seasons that Georgia has had to try and reload. But this time, they’re doing so without a clear-cut number one at QB. Perhaps Newman is better than I think. Perhaps Carson Beck just had a poor senior year of high school (48.9 comp. %).
But if Kirby Smart thought reloading without a ton of experience at wide receiver was tough, wait until he tries the same thing at QB.
Georgia/Florida 2018 talent
The 2018 recruiting class for Georgia was considered transcendent.
But with Justin Fields, Cade Mays and Brenton Cox – all 5-star recruits – having transferred, the class looks much different these days.
Meanwhile, Florida has added Cox and fellow 5-star running back Lorenzo Lingard to the fold via transfer.
As pointed out by my podcast colleague David Waters, this means that while UGA beat Florida in top-100 recruits at the time by a count of 12-4, the count now stands at 7-5, with Florida poised to potentially add 5-star WR Justin Shorter.
The third year after a recruiting class is when that class becomes the most likely to make an impact. Of Florida’s 22 starters in 2019, 64 percent came from the 2016 or 2017 recruiting classes, with 41 percent coming from 2016. That means 2020 is the year that the 2018 class has to step forward.
The same is true for Georgia, as the Bulldogs 2019 roster had 68 percent of its starters from the 2016 or 2017 recruiting classes. It is going to have to rely heavily on its 2018 class as well to sustain its hold on the SEC East.
But the problem for the Bulldogs (and opportunity for the Gators) is that the 2018 class no longer looks like quite the talent mismatch it did back on national signing day in February of 2020.
FSU is getting better, but it will take time
I think Mike Norvell will do a good job in Tallahassee. He certainly can’t do worse than Willie Taggart.
But the reality is that Florida State’s 2018 class (ranked 11th overall) is the ‘Noles last shot at being decent for a while. The 2019 class ranked 19th and the 2020 class currently stands at 21st, putting the Seminoles at a severe talent disadvantage to Mullen’s Gators.
Mullen historically has feasted on those advantages and that should continue against FSU in the forseeable future.
But even with a team that doesn’t have top-10, or even top-5, classes like FSU is accustomed to, I expect Norvell will make FSU’s record way better. This is still a talented team. And they still play in the ACC. Even if they play like a top-20 team, they should go 9-3 or potentially even 10-2.
Ironically, at this point a step up from Taggart is actually a good thing for Florida. The Gators have beaten FSU convincingly for two straight seasons. They are chasing Georgia, LSU and Alabama, not FSU.
A quality non-conference victory will help Florida’s resume. There would have been no shot that the Gators would have gotten any respect for beating FSU again in Taggart’s third year.
Beating an improved Florida State under Norvell will be a positive thing for the Gators as well as a way to ensure that FSU remains the little brother in the state under its new leadership.
Oh my, what an easy schedule
That out of conference win may be critical because Florida’s schedule is about as easy as it gets in the SEC.
Eastern Washington, South Alabama and New Mexico State are all cupcakes. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Florida State are the only road games, none of which should mount a huge challenge to the Gators.
It comes down to the same two games that it came down to in 2019: LSU and Georgia.
LSU is at home and will be the first road start for Brennan. The Tigers will have played Texas earlier in the season, but that will be in Death Valley. Beyond that, it is a series of cupcakes (UTSA, Rice and Nicholls) and Ole Miss prior to traveling to Gainesville.
As always, the Georgia game is in Jacksonville. Georgia may come into this game with two losses already, as they will face Alabama in Tuscaloosa in mid-September and then Auburn in early October. If Newman struggles like I think he may, Florida may be seeing Carson Beck in his first or second start of the year.
In 2019, Florida had the bad luck of pulling Auburn and LSU from the SEC West while Georgia got Auburn and Texas A&M. The 2020 schedule means that if Georgia slips up against both Alabama teams, or blows another game like the shocker against South Carolina, Florida can still win the East with a loss to either LSU or Georgia.
2021 and 2022 schedules will require elite teams
If the Gators are going to get it done, this is really the year.
As I mentioned, Georgia goes on the road to Alabama in 2020. In 2021, they get Auburn and Arkansas.
Florida gets the Tide in Gainesville in 2021 along with FAU and USF as non-conference foes. And in 2022, the Gators schedule gets even harder with Utah and USF in the Swamp and FSU and Texas A&M on the road.
Texas A&M wasn’t great this year, but Jimbo Fisher has been recruiting at an elite level. The Aggies are going to be really good come 2022. Alabama is going to be good in 2021 because the Tide are always good. Utah is a solid Power-5 team at worst that may be growing into a Pac-12 power. And even USF, though not in Florida’s class, is going to take a toll compared to the Eastern Washington’s of the world.
That’s why the window is really 2020. That 2018 class I mentioned above is going to go to the NFL if they play up to their level. 2021 and 2022 are going to include way more difficult opposition. Trask is going to be gone after 2020, meaning that if he starts the entire year, Florida will be breaking in a first-time starter.
Takeaway
Normally you wouldn’t put a huge emphasis on a coach’s third year at a program. In fact, that’s often a time when you see a program take a step backwards.
But Dan Mullen has some big advantages built in for the 2020 season. With an entire OL returning save center Nick Buchanan, Shawn Davis, Marco Wilson and Trevon Grimes deciding to stay for one more year, and the emergence of Kyle Trask as the best QB the conference has to offer, the time is now.
Georgia fans have seen Kirby Smart recruit at an elite level, but even with all those recruits, it looks like he may have missed his window.
LSU is going to go through a transition of its own with the loss of Burrow. You also have to wonder if running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (a junior) decides to leave as well if the Tigers win the title tonight, and he is often cited as the heart of that team.
When you recruit at a level like Dan Mullen has (good-but-not-great), it narrows the margin for error. It’s happened recently. Florida State declined after Jameis Winston left in 2014. Clemson was ready.
Those teams hadn’t recruited great, but Swinney hit on an elite QB (Deshaun Watson) and signed six top-100 players in the 2015 class.
Florida has line of sight to a really good, and potentially elite, QB in 2020. And if Justin Shorter transfers and is immediately eligible (questionable), Florida will be adding six top-100 players to the fold.
Dan Mullen has lost five games in his two years at Florida. Four of them have been to NFL-level QBs (Fromm twice, Burrow, Drew Lock). There aren’t any of those on the 2020 schedule.
That means, 2020 is the year for Florida to retake the East.