I chose a half measure, when I should’ve gone all the way. I’ll never make that mistake again. – Mike Ehrmantraut
That scene from Breaking Bad was all I could think of when it was announced Thursday night that the Big Ten was only going to play in-conference games and then the Pac-12 followed suit on Friday.
The highest risk in playing college football under the cloud of Covid-19 isn’t in the games against your opponent. It’s in the bus ride when everyone is packed into an enclosed space on the way to the game. It’s in the locker room when the whole team is packed inside celebrating a big win. It’s sitting in the film room with a teammate who spent last night at a bar with 100 of his closest friends.
That’s because exposure to the virus isn’t just direct exposure, but exposure to a significant viral load. I heard former Chargers team doctor, Dr. David Chao, talk about that this week on Clay Travis’ Outkick the Coverage podcast. Chao described thinking about viral load the same as thinking about a sunburn (not in severity, but in acquisition).
Chao’s point was that you don’t get a sunburn by walking from the house to the beach without putting on sunscreen. And not everybody is as susceptible to burning because of their predetermined genetics. But eventually, if you don’t put sunscreen on, you’re going to get burned.
Chao argued that similar thinking can be applied to the virus.
Masks and social distancing are the sunscreen in this metaphor. But the only way to really keep yourself from getting the virus is to stay out of the “sun” for extended periods of time.
In the case of this virus, more and more it looks like that means staying outdoors.
There’s pretty significant evidence at this point that indoors is the location where we see the biggest risk of transmission. New York City and New Jersey have been the hardest hit by the virus, in large part I’m sure because the only way to get around Manhattan is via public transportation (i.e. inside).
Now we’re seeing significant virus outbreaks in Florida, Georgia, Texas and California. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that this coincides with air conditioning season in those regions. Would more disciplined mask wearing have helped tamp things down? Likely. Would it have prevented the uptick from happening though? I suspect that’s fairly unlikely.
So the Big 10 and Pac-12 can decide to only play conference games, but they’re not protecting their players by having the Wolverines travel to Rutgers (605 miles) but preventing them from hosting Ball State.
The cynic in me thinks conferences are making these moves purely because of money. Eliminating Ball State allows Michigan to recoup some of the $975,000 they were set to pay the Cardinals. Home teams pay cupcakes to come into their house to give an easy win to the home team, but also to raise overall revenue.
Without fans in the stands, that revenue dries up. Michigan will likely be able to settle with Ball State for less than they would have lost paying them.
When it comes to the virus, colleges need to either make a “play” or “don’t play” decision. These half-measures aren’t making players any safer than they would’ve been with a full season. We can argue about the risk (or lack thereof) to 18-22 year olds from the virus and also the risk that playing imparts on the older coaching and support staffs.
But if you believe it’s too risky to play an out-of-conference opponent, you should believe it is too risky to play an in-conference opponent. Likewise, if you believe it’s not a huge risk to play one, it doesn’t substantially increase the risk to play the other.
I tend to default towards trying to play but I understand if your risk profile is different than mine and you feel differently.
But like most decisions made in major college sports, I suspect that this decision to play only in-conference games is being made by the conferences based on financial risks rather than health ones. That they’re using the virus as an excuse to improve their financial position seems somewhat distasteful.
Because when it comes to the virus, this decision is clearly a half-measure, and Mr. Ehrmantraut tried to tell us how those end up.