See 'em on Saturday. pic.twitter.com/FTalyzfiG9
— Florida Gators Football (@GatorsFB) October 26, 2020
*Lines pulled from Bovada on 10/29
MISSOURI AT #10 FLORIDA -13 (-105)
Moneyline: Florida (-500) / Missouri (+350)
Total: Over/Under 61.5
The Gators are back after a couple weeks off due to a COVID outbreak among the team. Florida welcomes Mizzou to into Gainesville for a game that needs to serve as a critical tune-up leading into Georgia.
Shaken confidence among the fanbase has not discourage Vegas. They still loves the Gators despite the Tigers pulling back-to-back upsets in home wins over LSU and Kentucky. Missouri showed the ability to outpace LSU in a track meet and shut Kentucky down in more of a grind it out style of game.
Outside of some beautiful new throwbacks, all eyes will be on the Florida defense. Heavily ridiculed Florida DC Todd Grantham says he’ll stick to his guns and not change much on the defensive side of the ball.
Missouri was supposed to spend head coach Eli Drinkwitz’s first year searching for answers. Instead, the Tigers have proven to be no pushover. We’ll see if that still applies on the road, but until proven otherwise, it has to be assumed that the Florida defense will be a liability.
Mizzou has a good shot to cover in this one, but on the off chance Trask and the offense light it up, I’m going to play it safe and take the Gators on the moneyline.
FLORIDA MONEYLINE
#5 GEORGIA -17 (-110) AT KENTUCKY
Moneyline: Georgia (-850) / Kentucky (+525)
Total: Over/Under 42.5
Kentucky’s no-show at Missouri came out of the blue. The Wildcats offense slogged their way to 145 total yards against a Mizzou defense which had given up close to 40 points per game in their first three outings. It was a particularly puzzling since UK was fresh off of pounding Tennessee in Knoxville.
Nothing like trying to get right against the Georgia defense.
The Dawgs head to Lexington fresh off of a bye week after crumbling in the second half two weeks back in Tuscaloosa. QB Stetson Bennett has been one of the better storylines in college football, but I believe UGA’s ceiling is higher with J.T. Daniels as the starter.
Kirby and offensive creativity are two concepts that are often not mentioned in the same sentence, so I’m not sure what to expect from Georgia on Saturday. If he were smart, Daniels would see significant playing time as the Bulldogs gear up for the Gators next week. Florida is the only real obstacle standing in Georgia’s way of a rematch with Alabama in the SEC Championship. They should be making moves to set themselves up for those games alone.
Dawgs cover easy.
GEORGIA -17 (-110)
LSU -2.5 (-135) AT AUBURN
Moneyline: LSU (-150) /Auburn (+130)
Total: Over/Under 65
Indiana and Rutgers will feature a ranked football team, but the LSU and Auburn game will not. Strange times we live in.
Both sets of SEC West Tigers are off to disappointing starts in 2020, however, last week served as a nice bounce back for each squad.
LSU regained its 2019 form on Saturday night in Death Valley. The Tigers dismantled a South Carolina team which had upset Auburn a week earlier.
Freshman QB T.J. Finley put on such a good performance that he almost overshadowed significant improvement by DC Bo Pelini and the defensive side of the football. There is still plenty of room to grow, but Coach O will take what he can get on a week-to-week basis.
The last two Auburn victories were aided by two massive SEC officiating errors. Auburn WR Seth Williams and RB Tank Bigsby may be in line to have big days for War Eagle, but a critical mistake from Bo Nix will be the difference in this game.
OLE MISS -16.5 (-110) AT VANDERBILT
Moneyline: Ole Miss (-750) / Vanderbilt (+475)
Total: Over/Under 64
Time for Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss to release some frustration. The Rebels, losers of three-straight, have arguably played the toughest five-game game stretch in the country. While Ole Miss has shown plenty of fight, mistakes have held this team back. Mistakes will kill you against better competition, but the Rebels will be able to afford a few errors on Saturday against a Vanderbilt team that has struggled to move the ball.
The Commodores take the field for the first time in three weeks. Did the time off allow head coach Derek Mason to make a few adjustments or will Vandy look rustier than the team that took back-to-back 41-7 beatings to kick off the month?
Vanderbilt is always good for at least one upset per year. That upset may come next week against Mississippi State. The Rebels should cruise in this one.
OLE MISS -16.5 (-110)
MISSISSIPPI STATE AT #2 ALABAMA -31 (-110)
Moneyline: N/A
Total: Over/Under 63.5
Since Mike Leach’s opening week takeover of the SEC, the Bulldogs have scored all of three touchdowns in three losses.
The Bulldogs were expected to struggle in year one under Leach, however, I think most expected more than what we’ve seen the last three games. Mississippi State should work their way into an offensive juggernaut over the next few years, but in the present, Alabama serves as the resident offensive juggernaut in the SEC West.
Despite losing WR Jaylen Waddle for the season, the Crimson Tide will continue to roll behind Heisman front-runners QB Mac Jones and RB Najee Harris. The Vols finally held Jones to under 400 yards passing (387) last week, but Harris found the end zone three times on the ground to run his season total up to 14 rushing touchdowns.
Bama scores early and often while the Bulldogs continue to struggle.
ALABAMA -31 (-110)
ARKANSAS AT #8 TEXAS A&M -12 (-110)
Moneyline: Texas A&M (-460) / Arkansas (+330)
Total: Over/Under 54.5
I ragged on the Aggies after another blowout loss to Alabama in the second week of the season, but an upset over the Gators has A&M sitting pretty heading into a winnable stretch of Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Ole Miss before capping the season off with LSU and Auburn. Jimbo Fisher’s team may very well be favored in each game until the end of the season.
Arkansas has outperformed expectations week-in and week-out. Sam Pittman’s Hogs have been vicious on the defensive side of the ball and are the most improved team in the SEC. The Razorbacks will rip off another upset or two along the way this season, but I don’t believe this will be one of those times.
Despite stellar defensive play, the Hogs can be mistake prone at times. Texas A&M will take advantage of a few of those mistakes and make Arkansas pay, but the Hogs are certainly capable of keeping things close. Woo Pig Sooie covers.
Season in Review
Overall: 13-17 (43.3%)
Week 1: 3-4
Week 2: 3-4
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 1-4
Week 5: 2-2
Over 71.5 (-110) – Incorrect
Prepare for an offensive explosion in this one. The Total is set at 71.5, but I see these two offenses combining for over 1,000 yards in a track meet.
Both teams combined for 906 yards. A Matt Corral interception in the red zone and a missed call by the officials cost Ole Miss the game. Combine both plays and it cost me the over.
Alabama Moneyline (-2000) – Correct
Bama can put up any number it wants on Saturday night, but I worry about Saban and large spreads. We saw the Tide allow Mizzou to cover with a score late in Week 1 and I’m concerned we may see a similar situation here. Bama gets out to an early lead, puts in the backups and coasts home.
Went conservative and took Bama on the moneyline on the off chance Tennessee could cover on the back end.
Kentucky Moneyline (-210) – Incorrect
The LSU win proved Drinkwitz and the Tigers will not be a total pushover this season and, while I still think Kentucky will get the win, I’ll approach with some caution and pick Kentucky on the moneyline.
Two weeks after the Tigers outgunned LSU on the offensive end of the field, Mizzou held Kentucky to 145 total yards of offense.
Over 55 (-110) – Correct
LSU scores a ton of points and gives up a ton of points. ..but they’ll give up enough for an easy cover on the Over.
LSU freshman QB T.J. Finley had no issues filling in for injured starter Myles Brennan. South Carolina missed a solid opportunity to jump on LSU while they were down, but the Tigers showed up and played their best game of the year.
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