Florida gets back into action this weekend against Missouri.
How many Gators will be missing, and how healthy those who are coming off of COVID-19 diagnoses are complete unknowns. If one particular position group has been particularly hard hit, it could really open up some deficiencies, especially on a defense that has struggled.
Still, the cancellation of Wisconsin’s game this week does prove how wise the SEC was in building in some margin for error in the season. Being able to shift schedules so that Florida plays Missouri Saturday night and LSU on December 12 means that the SEC is still “on schedule” to meet the expectations of the Playoff Selection Committee.
As for the game, I have no idea.
The Tigers started the year 0-2, losing first to Alabama (understandable) and then getting pounded by Tennessee (um…not). Since then, they have a shootout win over LSU (is that impressive?) and a 10-point win over Kentucky.
But the Wildcats, despite being behind the entire second half, only threw the ball 14 times. Missouri is certainly going to see more through the air against the Gators.
I tend to think the Kentucky game is the anomaly. As bad as the Gators defense has been against the pass (8.6 yards per attempt), Missouri has been just as bad (8.4 yards per attempt). But if you subtract Kentucky’s play, that number balloons to 9.0 yards per attempt.
Florida QB Kyle Trask has averaged 9.7 yards per attempt this year, with 14 TD and 1 INT. That’s a bad sign for Missouri.
However, the Tigers two-game win streak coincides with the elevation of QB Connor Bazelak to starter. Bazelak has completed 71 percent of his throws for 9.0 yards per attempt. He also has run for 66 yards on 27 carries. That’s not a true dual-threat QB, but does indicate he can extend plays and isn’t going to just take sacks like his predecessor Shawn Robinson (11 carries for -39 yards).
So the key question in this one is whether Bazelak is for real. I tend to think the answer is probably no.
The only high school stats I can find on Bazelak have him at 50 percent completions on 134 attempts. The one game available from his senior season has him at 14-31. He was otherworldly against LSU (85.3%) and good against Kentucky (70%), but was just average against Tennessee (62%) and pedestrian against Bama (50%).
In his four games, his QB rating is 90.8, 139.6, 224.4 and 126.3. I think it’s fair to expect him to put up a QB rating around 130-140. Maybe if you penalize the Gators defense significantly, he might put up a QB rating of 160 (Mond was at 180.8).
That’s a really good day for a QB.
But then I take a look at the other side and Kyle Trask. Trask has put up QB Ratings of 201.8, 188.7 and 195.0 in 2020. He has yet to have a game where he’s completed less than 70 percent of his passes.
There’s a perception that Missouri has the better running game, but the Tigers have only averaged 3.6 yards per attempt thus far in 2020. Florida has been markedly better, averaging 4.8 yards per attempt.
So if Missouri can’t beat the Gators running the ball, then it comes down to two QBs and two defenses that are terrible against the pass.
The Gators have the better QB.
Florida (-13) wins, 41-27.
Predictions this season: 2-1 straight-up, 1-2 against the spread
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