The past few playoff pieces have been dedicated to monitoring which teams were still technically alive in the playoff race, but Thanksgiving weekend gave us a clear playoff picture heading into the final few weeks of the regular season.
Embed from Getty ImagesBye, bye West Coast
Heading into Turkey Day, I still believed the Pac-12, Oregon specifically, had a serious shot to contend for a playoff spot. Washington and USC were technically still in the race thanks to unbeaten records.
The Ducks could not survive a Friday night fog in Corvallis and, despite staying unbeaten, the CFP Selection Committee dropped USC two spots from 18 to 20 and finally ranked Washington at 22 in this week’s poll.
One-loss Oregon slots in at No. 23, just one spot behind the Huskies. For reference, two two-loss Big XII teams are ranked at least nine spots higher than any Pac-12 team. Three-loss North Carolina moved up two spots from 19 to 17after a respectable performance against Notre Dame.
Southern Cal despite being 3-0 and North Carolina rises after a loss. That tells you everything you need to know about what the committee thinks about the Pac-12 and we can effectively eliminate the Pac-12 from the playoff hunt.
Bye, bye BYU
I’ve been on the “give BYU a chance” train for the last month. There are differing perspectives on how it all shook out, but what we do know is that Washington and BYU at least had discussions about playing in Seattle. I know the committee doesn’t love the Pac-12, but a win over the Huskies would’ve bolstered the Cougars resume. Instead, 9-0 BYU continues to get no respect, staying buried behind a three two-loss squads (UGA, Iowa State, and OU), a team which lost its starting quarterback for the year (Indiana), and a Miami team which lost to Clemson by 25 points.
I still believe this BYU team would beat Cincinnati on neutral field based on what both teams have put on tape. It doesn’t matter though. The Cougars will do not have enough runway to make the playoffs. If they finish unbeaten, they should at least receive a New Year’s Six bid.
Embed from Getty ImagesBye, bye Big Ten
The CFP Selection Committee surprisingly kept the Buckeyes in the No. 4 slot despite missing two of their last three games. Ohio State is an outstanding team who deserves to be considered for a playoff spot, however, if the Buckeyes miss another game (at Michigan State, or vs Michigan), they won’t be eligible to qualify for the Big Ten Championship Game thanks to the league’s six game minimum threshold requirement.
Another brilliant piece of legislation from the Big Ten office.
It’s interesting to see the Selection Committee’s approach to the Pac-12 vs. the Big Ten. Granted, Ohio State has been a consistent CFP team, but the committee has plenty of respect for one-loss Indiana (No. 11), one-loss Northwestern (No. 14), and one-loss Wisconsin (No. 16), which lost to one-loss Northwestern. Why are they showing more considerably more respect for the Big Ten than the Pac-12?
Are they pumped about the Badgers’ dismantling of Illinois and the worst Michigan team in a half-a-century?
Did the 42-35 loss at OSU score Indiana points despite the fact the Hoosiers fell behind 35-7 in that game?
I, unfortunately, watched a good chunk of the Northwestern-Michigan State game. Did the Selection Committee really walk away from that game thinking one of these teams is one of the 15 best teams in America?
Clearly, the Pac-12 is being punished in the rankings…and it’s understandable. The Pac-12 is simply reaping the consequences of the terrible policy their conference leaders enacted back in late July/early August.
- They tried to force the rest of the Power Five’s hand by announcing a fall to spring postponement of the 2020 football season without the blessing of the SEC, ACC, and Big XII.
- Once they realized their error, they created a shortened half-season schedule with no bye weeks or flexibility in a season which definitely needed bye weeks and flexibility.
- They’ve cancelled games with no intention of making them up meaning some teams have played somewhere between 1-3 games by December.
The Pac-12 can easily be criticized for their half-hearted attempt at a season, but weren’t they just following the Big Ten’s lead?
Why is the Selection Committee treating these conferences so differently in the polls? In what year would an unbeaten Southern Cal sit behind a one-loss Indiana and one-loss Northwestern in the polls?
I’m ok with the Selection Committee’s heavy handed approach to the Pac-12, but I think the same heavy hand needs to be applied to the Big Ten.
Both conferences need to be left out of the playoff in 2020. Ultimately, I believe both conferences will be watching from home with Ohio State paying the most severe price. The Buckeyes will finish the season unbeaten, whether or not they qualify for the Big Ten title game.
The Bucks are absolutely one of the four best teams in the country, but shouldn’t the Selection Committee reward teams from conferences who have played close to full seasons over conferences which tried to bail on the 2020 season?
Playoff Paths
The Selection Committee has sent a clear message in the first two weeks of releasing the official CFP Rankings: only seven have a real shot at a playoff spot. The No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs and below can jockey for positions to line up New Year’s Six Bowl bids.
The Ya Might Already Be In Club
No. 1 Alabama
The SEC has not confirmed whether Alabama will play Arkansas on December 12, which leads me to believe that if the Tide can clinch the West with a win over LSU and Florida defeats Tennessee to clinch the East, both teams will receive a bye from the SEC office in an effort to preserve the SEC Championship Game. (Editor’s Note: News broke late Wednesday that the SEC will play its full schedule)
The Bama Wins Out Chalk Bracket
Bama will likely steamroll LSU on Saturday, but what if Kyle Trask completes his Joe Burrow impression by leading the Gators to a close win over the Tide in Atlanta? Florida would take a playoff spot, but it’d be difficult to convince folks that a one-loss Alabama doesn’t deserve a spot over a “we played half-a-season” Ohio State, “we lost to Bama by 28” Texas A&M, and “we shouldn’t be mentioned in the same sentence with Bama” Cincinnati.
Alabama has clearly been the best team in the country and a close loss against a solid Florida team will likely be enough to secure a playoff spot.
The Florida & Clemson win out
No. 2 Notre Dame
The Clemson win will be as strong of a resume builder as any other piece of information on the table for the Selection Committee. The Irish did beat Clemson shorthanded, however, they’ve followed up the win with solid performances and have converted the masses over the last few weeks. Barring a disgusting blowout loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship, Notre Dame should be in.
The Notre Dame Beats Clemson Bracket
The Win & You’re In Club
No. 3 Clemson
I know I just gave Notre Dame it’s due credit, but don’t worry, Clemson, we know you’re probably the better team and have no issue with you getting a shot at the Irish in the ACC title game. The Tigers can secure their trip to Charlotte with a win at Virginia Tech on Saturday night.
The Clemson beats Notre Dame 72-0 Bracket
No. 6 Florida
The Gators may be sitting two spots out of the playoffs, but they are in better shape than No. 5 Texas A&M when it comes to qualifying for a spot in the CFP. Florida fell to A&M in front of what appeared to be 200,000 fans in stands in early October, but the Aggies inability to get over the Bama hump will keep them out of Atlanta. If Florida beats Tennessee on Saturday and pulls off a SEC Championship upset, the Gators will likely take the No. 2 spot in the rankings. (See the The Florida & Clemson win out bracket above).
The Need Some Help Club
No. 4 Ohio State
I see the Buckeyes inclusion into the playoff field this week as nothing more than a vote of confidence. The Selection Committee clearly thinks Ohio State is a talented team, but again, the Big Ten policy will likely crush Ohio State’s hopes of competing for a national title. If I’m wrong and if OSU can manage to seamlessly play three weeks in a row to capture a Big Ten title, the Buckeyes may get the benefit of the doubt and sneak into the playoffs. Whether they should receive that benefit of the doubt is a completely separate issue. (See the The Bama Wins Out Chalk Bracket above).
No. 5 Texas A&M
The Aggies will get a chance to run their record to 8-1 in the next two weeks against Auburn and Tennessee. There is also an outside shot they’ll get a tenth game in against Ole Miss on December 19. Should the Aggies advance to 9-1, they’ll need to root for Alabama to win out to have a shot at the playoffs. A Notre Dame win over Clemson would also go a long way to helping A&M lock in a playoff spot. I’m anticipating a Texas A&M vs Ohio State debate for the final spot. Aggieland, start prepping your “Why we deserve this spot more than Ohio State” presentations.
The Ohio State is out; we don’t want Clemson-Notre Dame III as a semifinal
The Bearcats are the longshot in the field. Cincinnati has demolished most of its competition. We saw them survive a scrappy effort from UCF, but that was a hurdle that would’ve tripped up Fickell’s team last year. This team deserves to be in the conversation, but total chaos would have to ensure for them to make the playoffs. Example: Texas A&M falls to Auburn or Ole Miss, Ohio State’s game against Michigan gets cancelled, and Clemson loses to Notre Dame. Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? No. If you are fan of anarchy, this is the scenario to root for in the coming weeks. I included Cincy in a couple of the examples above, but that was based on my belief that the Big Ten and Pac-12 do not deserve spots in this year’s playoff field.