Long Island University comes to The Swamp to open the 2025 season against the Gators. This should be a much easier matchup than the ones that have Billy Napier at 1-2 in Florida openers in his career thus far. The Sharks went 4-8 last season with its best win a 31-7 victory over the Stonehill Skyhawks, so we should expect this one to be a laugher.
Of course, that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to learn from this one. I have three main things I’m looking for in the Gators opener. And based on what USF did to Boise State on Friday night, Florida needs to make sure they get these things accomplished against the Sharks.
#1 Who’s the backup QB?
Napier and Co. brought in transfer Harrison Bailey to backup phenom D.J. Lagway, but reports out of camp are that Bailey hasn’t exactly separated himself in the battle to be the second-in-command.
Bailey played in six games as a true freshman at Tennessee, including a 31-19 loss against the Gators where he was pretty awful (14-21 for 111 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT). But after that, he only threw 7 more passes for the Vols, 58 for UNLV, and 38 for Louisville before making his way to Gainesville.
Yale transfer Aidan Warner was thrust into a difficult situation last season after Lagway went down. Getting third string snaps all year and then having to come in mid-game against Georgia and make your first start on the road against Texas was clearly overwhelming. Warner averaged 4.6 yards per attempt last year (Lagway averaged 10.0 for comparison) so to say there was a drop-off is a major understatement.
True freshman Tramell Jones is a pocket passer who completed 58% and 61% of his passes his sophomore and junior years of high school before only playing two games his senior season because of an injury.
That’s what Florida has to backup Lagway should anything make him miss time. While I’d prefer to live in a world where Lagway makes 450 throws, Napier can’t afford to live in that world. He has to find out what he has at backup, and fast.
#2 Will Ron Roberts get aggressive?
We wrote extensively in our preseason magazine (still time to buy here) about how Florida got way more conservative following the first bye week last season and how that pretty much confirms that Ron Roberts won the philosophical battle against former DC Austin Armstrong. Here’s the key takeaway from the piece:
“In its first four games, the Gators played Middle of the Field Closed (MOFC) coverage 1.5 times the amount that they played Middle of the Field Open (MOFO) coverage and blitzed at a 24 percent rate…..But after the first bye week, Florida’s scheme completely changed. For the rest of the season, the Gators favored MOFO coverages 1.5 times more often than MOFC coverages. The blitz rate fell from 24 percent to 17 percent.”
This is pretty counterintuitive given all the havoc that Florida was able to cause behind the line of scrimmage against LSU and Ole Miss. But basically Florida got way better on defense by backing off and playing way more conservative.
But now the Gators are bringing back four linebackers with major experience (Pup Howard, Myles Graham, Jaden Robinson, and Aaron Chiles) and two safeties with major experience as well (Jordan Castell and Bryce Thornton). If you were ever going to deviate from the bend-but-don’t-break scheme, now would be the time.
The reason this is important is because that scheme didn’t work at all against Texas, in the second half against Georgia, and in the first half against Ole Miss. Being able to dial up a blitz and not break down is going to be necessary from time-to-time against the best teams.
So that’s the question: does Roberts get more aggressive with all this experience or does he continue with what worked last season?
#3 How will Napier use Tre Wilson?
Coming into 2024, I thought Napier and Co. would use Tre Wilson in a lot of different ways. For example, here’s a play where Napier had running back Montrell Johnson act as a lead blocker on a swing pass to get Wilson out on the edge.
The Gators then built off of that by motioning Johnson out wide again but this time having Wilson cut underneath while covered one-on-one by a linebacker. You can see Georgia’s middle linebacker take a step towards the field side, which gives Wilson just enough space to get to the edge on a really easy pass.
The next step for Florida is to then recognize that Wilson is matched up on a linebacker and take advantage to get a big play, not just a first down.
Here’s an example from Ohio State a couple of years ago. They designed this play to go to the running back, in this case Xavier Johnson (#10). The route concepts they ran were designed to get each of Georgia’s safeties to bite to the outside. If they didn’t, Buckeye QB C.J. Stroud would have had an easy pass to the outside for a big gain. But if they did, then they had Johnson (who’s actually a receiver but lined up at running back) matched up one-on-one against linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson (#10). This play, in particular, is one that should fit with Wilson’s skillset really well.
But I think more importantly than just getting Wilson open for big plays, having Wilson all over the field signifies that Florida feels really good about its wide receivers elsewhere. Wilson is the proven entity; the guy who should be able to get separation on the outside. But if you line him up inside to exploit matchups, you’re exposing him to hits he won’t have to absorb on the outside.
So if you do use him this way, it means the staff thinks that guys like Vernell Brown, Dallas Wilson, Tank Hawkins, and J. Michael Sturdivant are ready to go on the outside.
The Pick
The question isn’t whether Florida wins this game, but by how much. The Sharks are just overmatched, and so Florida has the opportunity to use this as a glorified scrimmage.
But the Gators also need to get out of this one without any major injuries. That means pushing down the gas pedal early so that guys like Lagway, Wilson, Banks, and Sapp can give way to lots of backups one drive into the second half.
We shouldn’t take that for granted though. The Gators have had opportunities to get backups reps in cupcake games under Napier and have stumbled. Just last year in its 45-7 win over Samford, Florida was only up 14-0 at the half. In 2023 against Charlotte, Florida only led 16-7 at the half and Graham Mertz ended up having to play the entire game. And the Gators nearly blew a 24-13 halftime lead against USF in 2022 against what turned out to be a 1-11 Bulls team.
But this is a much better Florida team. And the Sharks aren’t as good as some of those teams I’ve cited in the examples above. Most importantly, Florida has D.J. Lagway starting in this one.
Florida gets off to a quick start – I’m thinking something like 24 points in about a quarter-and-a-half – and coasts the rest of the way. And the Gators defense does what it hasn’t done since 2019: pitch a shutout.
Florida (-45.5) wins, 59-0.
Picks last season: 9-3 (7-5 against the spread)
William’s Positivity Corner
Last year we started this section as an ode to my reputation as being ultra critical. In our group chat, Nick Knudsen and David Soderquist suggested (most likely mockingly at the time) that I should start “William’s Positivity Corner” to show you that just like the Grinch, my heart can grow a few sizes given the right circumstances.
I have to admit that it’s hard to be all that positive given the new out of Minneapolis this week about the shooting at Annunciation Catholic Church. I was on the campus at Virginia Tech when Seung-Hui Cho shot 32 people, and whenever a school shooting occurs, I’m transported back to the feelings I had on that day.
But this week I also read the story of Trinity University Offensive Coordinator Wade Lytel. I could try to summarize the story, but instead I’ll embed the post by writer Sahil Bloom that introduced me to Coach Lytel and his 8-year old daughter Kellyanne.
A chance meeting that changed my life…
On July 14, I got a message that stopped me in my tracks:
It was from a man named Wade Lytal. His 8-year-old daughter, Kellyanne, was one of the 27 little girls who lost their lives in the tragic flooding at Camp Mystic on July 4.… pic.twitter.com/EZg43Z2S2A
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) August 21, 2025
So go hug your spouse and your kids. Go call your mom and dad. Text that buddy you’ve been delaying getting back to. And cherish the friends you’ll tailgate with on Saturday (RIP Parker). It may not be the last time you do any of those things, but it could be.
The last paragraph from Bloom is what I’ll end with here:
“I feel an immense gratitude and privilege that Wade (@CoachLytal) reached out and allowed me to share his story with the world. My hope is that it creates rippes in the way you live….to pause just a little bit longer. To huge just a little bit harder. To live like it’s the last time.”