Florida got the job done on Saturday night against LIU. The Gators were 45.5-point favorites coming in, and exceeded Vegas’ expectations with a 55-0 victory.
This was exactly what we expected coming in (I picked Florida 59-0). But there were some questions that I asked coming into this one and we did get some answers.
#1 Who’s the backup QB?
The answer to this question is definitively true freshman Tramell Jones, Jr.
On the broadcast, they made a point to say that Napier had told them that Jones had won the job, and he made it pretty clear why that was in the second half.
Now, we need to be a little bit realistic here. Jones looked impressive for a true freshman against an overmatched opponent. I wouldn’t say that he looked impressive. He averaged 7.3 yards per attempt (below average) and ran five times for 14 yards (right around average). The result is that his Yards Above Replacement (YAR, my stat that measures QB efficiency) was slightly below average at -0.31.
He comes in much more favorably via QB rating, which has him at 164.5, or well above average (but not great). This is because QB rating is heavily weighted towards TD:INT ratio and less so towards yardage efficiency.
When both of these stats agree, it usually confirms that a player played well. When they disagree (as with here), I think it means that a player did some things well but certainly has room to improve.
That’s the case with Jones, but for a guy getting his first college snaps, he acquitted himself well.
#2 Will Ron Roberts get aggressive?
The Gators defense played great, but it’s hard not to when your opponent gets nothing on the ground (1.2 yards per rush) and only throws the ball 11 times. This was a mismatch from the start, and credit to Roberts and his defense for taking advantage of it and pitching a shutout.
But to my question, the jury is still out. Certainly, Florida’s defense had LIU on tilt and was in the backfield a bunch. At the same time, because the Sharks threw the ball so infrequently, there wasn’t really anything for Florida to protect downfield on much at all. That means that we weren’t really able to learn what Roberts may do schematically when the opposition tries to open things up.
What we did learn was that against an overmatched opponent, Florida is going to bring the wood. The Gators were constantly harassing LIU QB Ethan Greenwood as he tried to run various misdirection plays. In particular the play that comes to mind is Gator LB Myles Graham shooting through the line of scrimmage to bring down Greenwood from behind before LIU could even get its action started.
This is a great first step for the Gators D. We’ll see if they can keep it going against a much better opponent next week.
#3 How will Napier use Tre Wilson?
Napier tried a few things.
He tried a couple of screens out in the flat. He tried the pop pass end around. He tried a pitch play with the running back acting as a lead blocker (I had that one diagramed in my preview). But the only thing that worked was a red-zone play where Wilson had a corner in one-on-one coverage and beat him by a good five steps.
There’s a lesson there. Wilson has really quick change-of-direction. But he isn’t the fastest guy on the roster and doesn’t accelerate quick enough to escape if he can be slowed down by the first tackle attempt. That means that using him behind the line-of-scrimmage is only useful if you’re using it to set up something later.
Napier never got to that “something later” and he didn’t have to. I doubt we see it next week against USF either unless the Bulls are way better than we anticipated coming into the season – a distinct possibility after their destruction of Boise St.
But for those of you tired of those little screens, you’re probably going to get more next week. It’s leading to some misdirection in the future, but we weren’t going to see that against LIU.
New Questions
As with any season opener, we go into it with questions we want answered, but usually come out of it with new questions as well. This game is no different.
My main question is the Gators offensive line. Surrendering 11 tackles-for-loss against LIU should be embarrassing to this OL, especially given that they surrendered 10 in the first half. There were three runs for Jaden Baugh that totaled 81 yards in the first half. Other than those, the Gators ran 15 times for 37 yards (2.5 yards per attempt).
I realize that you can’t just subtract three huge gains from the ledger, but I do think that particular stat is indicative of the fact that the Gators OL didn’t get a consistent push at all when the starters were in there. Given what the DL was able to do on the other side of the ball – and missing some starters to boot – it was a disappointing outing for the Gators offensive line.
My second question is the field goal kicking, as Trey Smack missed three field goals. He missed a 57-yarder that banged off the upright, so no shame there. But he also missed from 39 and 40 yards, normally gimmes for Smack.
He did connect from 56 and 41, so it wasn’t all bad for Smack. But this is a guy who missed just seven field goals over the past two seasons (in 42 attempts), so it was definitely out of character. I don’t think this is anything to panic about, but it is something to watch.
Bengals kicker –and former Gator – Evan McPherson got into his own head last season after making 84 percent of his kicks his first three seasons. Last year for the Bengals, McPherson only made 16-22 (73%) and was benched with a groin injury late in the season.
I’m not saying that Smack is going to get the yips, but when you gak three in a game, it is something that pops up on the radar with some big road games on the near horizon.
The third question I have is that D.J. Lagway didn’t throw the ball deep much at all. His deepest throw was the throw to Vernell Brown III where Brown made an amazing catch, but the shots that he took consistently just weren’t there against LIU.
Now, some of that was probably due to design. Why show something now when you don’t have to. Some of that was probably due to the OL, as it did look like Lagway took some looks deep early in the game but just didn’t have time for his guy to come open.
But given that Lagway had a mysterious shoulder injury during the offseason, I couldn’t help having that question enter my head. His throws looked like they had plenty of pop on them, and he took a hit on a run that would indicate that he wasn’t protecting anything specific.
I’ll have a more detailed breakdown of Lagway’s play in this one later this week, but the deep ball missing was something of note that I’ll be watching very closely next week.
Takeaway
Florida just won a game 55-0, had a dominant defensive performance, and was able to establish some confidence for its backup QB. That’s a successful outing no matter the opponent.
As Alabama showed, opening against a big-time opponent is not always the best thing for your team’s development. We saw that the last two years, as Florida showed up with kinks to work out against Utah and Miami and got punched in the mouth.
It looked like this team – particularly on the offensive side – had some kinks to work out in this one too, but this time the opponent wasn’t good enough to take advantage in any way at all.
The Gators are going to get some guys back, they established some new faces will be major contributors (hello Vernell Brown and Brendon Bett), and got out of this game without any significant injuries.
There are tougher games on the horizon, but Billy Napier can say something about his team that he hasn’t been able to say since 2022.
They’re 1-0.