Note: Each week I’ll review Florida’s performance using two frameworks: Bill Connelly’s advanced “Five Factors” metrics (with the addition of the Middle 8), and the six traditional factors identified by Zach Barnett and the FootballScoop team. Read more about Connelly/Barnett in the intro: here.
This series is meant to tell the story of each game through the key stats that shape wins and losses. But writing on Monday evening, with 48 hours to process yet another low point of the Napier era, I was tempted to title this one The Blueprint for Defeat. For consistency, though, I have kept it as The Blueprint for Victory.
As you will see below, the metrics were split. Saturday featured a collection of Napier’s greatest hits: an unnecessarily conservative game plan, critical special teams blunders, poor clock management, and a flurry of penalties—including a spitting incident—that left Florida with no margin for error and vulnerable to an upset.
For Gator Nation (especially those of us in the Tampa area), this is another September rock bottom. We are left to stomach the loss while listening to neighbors in green and gold, newly armed with a lifetime supply of bragging rights they will treat as their Super Bowl.
On to the USF numbers…
5 Traditional Factors
Rush for More Yards
Winning leads to a 77.6% chance of victory
WINNER: FLORIDA ––> FLORIDA 133| USF 128
The Gators and Bulls were closely matched on the ground. Florida picked up 133 on 31 attempts (4.3 yards per carry) while USF notched 128 on 29 attempts (4.4 yards per carry).
Pass for More Yards 
Winning leads to a 62.1% chance of victory
WINNER: USF ––> FLORIDA 222 | USF 263
USF QB Byrum Brown connected with WR Keshaun Singleton for a 66-yard touchdown while Florida’s defense, unprepared and slow to get set after a substitution, was caught off guard. Brown spread the ball around all afternoon, with 8 different USF players recording a reception and none finishing with more than 5 catches.
Score First
Winning leads to a 70.7% chance of victory
WINNER: FLORIDA 3-0
5:39 – 1st – Trey Smack 28 yd FG GOOD
Florida opened the game with a methodical 14-play, 81-yard drive that reached the USF 9 before stalling and ending in a field goal. Baugh powered the series with 51 yards on 5 carries, but a dropped pass in the end zone by Livingston on first down, followed immediately by a false start on Lovett, were two key mistakes that left Florida settling for three instead of finishing with a touchdown.
Lead at Halftime
Winning leads to an 83.6% chance of victory
WINNER: FLORIDA 9-6
The Gators took a frustrating 9-6 lead into halftime, in a first half defined by stalled drives and missed opportunities, with zero touchdowns and five field goals between the two teams.
Much like their opening possession, Florida hurt itself with mistakes—this time an offensive pass interference that wiped out a touchdown. The penalty pushed UF back to a 1st & 25 at the USF 29, and four plays later they were forced to settle for their second field goal of the half, ending a 13-play drive. Lagway once again guided the offense deep into USF territory on the third and final drive before the break, but the Gators stalled and settled for another three points.
USF responded just before the half, as QB Byrum Brown escaped what looked like a sure sack on 3rd & 8 from the UF 27 and scrambled all the way down to the 7-yard line. Fortunately for Florida, only two seconds remained when Brown was finally brought down, leaving USF just enough time for a chip-shot field goal to close the half.
Win Turnovers
Winning leads to a 78.0% chance of victory
WINNER: USF +1 —> Florida 1 | USF 0
Florida’s defense did not force a turnover, while Lagway’s interception left USF with the edge in the turnover battle.
Win All Five Traditional Factors
Winning leads to a 96.9% chance of victory
WINNER: N/A ––> FLORIDA 3 | USF 2
The traditional stat sheet proved to be just as evenly matched between Florida and USF as the action on the field.
6 Advanced Metrics
Success Rate
Winning leads to an 83% chance of victory
WINNER: FLORIDA —> FLORIDA 42% | USF 39%
Success Rate measures offensive efficiency — how often a team stays “on schedule” by gaining enough yards to keep drives alive. A play is successful if it gains at least 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, or the full distance on 3rd/4th down.
Florida = 42%
Out of 64 plays, 27 were successful. The Gators stayed on schedule nearly half the time, with steady gains on the ground and efficient short throws. Baugh’s early runs consistently put the offense in manageable spots, and 3rd-down conversions kept drives alive. But penalties, a dropped pass in the end zone, and an interception kept Florida from finishing drives, forcing them to kick field goals instead of scoring touchdowns.
USF = 39%
Out of 65 plays, 25 were successful. The Bulls weren’t as steady moving the ball, but they struck gold on the biggest play of the game when QB Byrum Brown hit WR Keshaun Singleton for a 66-yard touchdown. Even though they had plenty of short gains and some drives that sputtered, that explosive play and a few timely completions were enough to make the difference.
Takeaway: Florida held a small edge in overall efficiency (42% vs. 39%), but it didn’t matter on the scoreboard. The Gators moved the ball well yet kept stalling out for field goals, while USF made the most of fewer successful plays by capitalizing in key moments to steal the 18–16 win.
Explosiveness
Winning leads to an 86% chance of victory
WINNER: USF —> Florida 1.04 PPP | USF 1.17 PPP
Explosiveness measures how often a team produces big, high-value plays that swing scoring chances. It is tracked using Points Per Play (PPP), which captures the change in Expected Points (EP) from snap to snap and averages it across plays.
Florida finished with 1.04 PPP. The Gators moved the ball methodically but did not produce many explosive gains, instead settling for field goals on long drives. Their biggest swings came on chunk runs by Baugh and a few intermediate completions, but red-zone penalties and missed opportunities dragged down their overall value.
USF posted 1.17 PPP. While their efficiency wasn’t better than Florida’s, they produced the game’s defining explosive play: the 66-yard touchdown from QB Byrum Brown to WR Keshaun Singleton, which accounted for a massive single-drive jump in expected points. Beyond that, short completions and timely scrambles added incremental value, giving the Bulls just enough explosiveness to tilt the balance.
USF Sample TD Drive vs Florida
Start: USF at own 14 (EP = 0.9)
Play 1: Pass complete to Reuben for 15 yards –> EP = 1.4 (+0.5)
Play 2: Rush for 2 yards –> EP = 1.5 (+0.1)
Play 3: Rush for 3 yards –> EP = 1.7 (+0.2)
Play 4: 3rd & 5, pass complete to Singleton for 66-yard TD –> EP = 7.0 (+5.3)
Extra Point: Good (+1.0)
Total Value Added: +0.5 +0.1 +0.2 +5.3 +1.0 = +7.1
Drive PPP: 7.1 ÷ 4 = 1.78 PPP (scrimmage plays only)
USF’s overall explosiveness came in small chunks most of the afternoon, but this one drive shows how a single big play can swing the numbers. Florida moved the ball more consistently, but USF’s 66-yard touchdown strike created one of the highest-value drives of the game and pushed their PPP edge just enough to secure the upset win.
Takeaway: Florida controlled possession and efficiency, but USF’s few explosive plays, highlighted by the 66-yard touchdown strike, carried more weight than Florida’s steady gains. The Bulls’ slight PPP edge (1.17 to 1.04) proved decisive in their 18–16 victory.
Field Position
Winning leads to a 72% chance of victory
WINNER: Florida —> Florida 73.7 YDS | USF 78.5 YDS
Field Position measures the average starting spot for each drive, showing how many yards from the end zone an offense begins. Winning field position means your team consistently starts drives closer to the goal line than your opponent, creating shorter, easier scoring chances.
Florida = 73.7
On average, Florida’s drives started 73.7 yards from the end zone. This gave the Gators slightly shorter fields to work with across the game.
USF = 78.5
USF’s drives started 78.5 yards from the end zone. The Bulls consistently had to cover longer fields, which should have made scoring more difficult.
Takeaway: Florida won the field position battle by nearly five yards per drive, giving them an advantage in starting field spot. However, that edge did not translate to the scoreboard, as USF overcame longer fields to claim the win.
Scoring Opportunities (Points Per Trip Inside the 40)
Winning leads to a 75% chance of victory
WINNER: Florida —> Florida 4.00 PPO | USF 2.25 PPO
This stat measures how well teams finish drives once they run a play inside the opponent’s 40-yard line.
One distinction to clarify: A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense actually snaps the ball inside the opponent’s 40-yard line. A long touchdown from outside the 40 does not count as a drive inside of the opponent’s 40, but a drive that crosses the 40 and then backs up still does, because possession inside the 40 already happened. The total points scored on these drives are divided by the number of opportunities to calculate Points Per Opportunity (PPO).
For example, a team with 10 opportunities inside the 40 that scores 45 points has 4.5 PPO. A higher number shows they’re finishing drives with touchdowns or field goals, while a lower number shows wasted chances.
Florida: 4 opportunities, 16 points, 4.00 PPO
Florida moved inside the USF 40 on all three first-half possessions and came away with field goals (28, 36, 41). After halftime they created one opportunity, the 4th-quarter drive that ended in the Wilson touchdown.
USF: 4 opportunities, 9 points, 2.25 PPO
USF drove to at least the UF 40 four times, producing field goals from 38, 25, and 20 yards with one miss late. The 66-yard touchdown from the USF 34 does not count toward PPO.
Takeaway
Florida’s opportunities dried up after the break, but they still finished better once inside the 40. USF won by cashing in on scoring that PPO does not capture: the long touchdown from outside the 40 or the third-quarter safety.
Turnover Margin
Winning leads to a 69.6% chance of victory
WINNER: USF +1 ––> FLORIDA 1 | USF 0
Turnover margin measures the difference between takeaways gained and turnovers lost. According to a study by the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, teams that win the turnover margin:
- Win 69.6% of games
- Win 83.9% if they win by +2
- Win 90.7% if they win by +3 or more
The Florida defense failed to produce a single turnover this week. The lone turnover in the was from a sailed pass from DJ Lagway down the field.
Turnovers in Detail
USF
Zero turnovers on the day.
Florida
- Interception — 8:43, 3rd Quarter
On a rare deep-ball opportunity in the game, QB DJ Lagway rolled to his right and fired down the middle of the field from along the right hash. The throw sailed high over intended target WR J. Michael Sturdivant and was intercepted by USF S James Chenault, who made a diving grab to secure the turnover.
Takeaway: Florida finished -1 in turnover margin. Lagway’s interception was not costly, as the defense forced a punt. The special teams botched punt snap that went into the end zone for the safety which was ultimately the difference in the game. It does not count as a turnover and will not show up in the advanced analytics, but that unforced error provided the Bulls’ two-point winning margin.
Middle 8
Winning leads to ~70% chance of victory.
WINNER: N/A TIED 3-3
The Gators traded field goals with the Bulls before halftime and punts after halftime in the Middle 8.
Final Takeaway
WINNER: Florida → Florida 6 | USF 4 | Neutral/Split 2
Florida won more of the steady-state categories—Success Rate, Field Position, and PPO—by moving the ball consistently and creating shorter fields.
The split in both the traditional stats and advanced analytics categories accurately reflect how tightly contested the game was on the field.
USF won the high-leverage moments that swung the game: a 66-yard touchdown from outside the 40, a safety on a botched punt snap, end-of-half and end-of-game field goals, plus a +1 turnover margin.
Florida’s penalties, a dropped touchdown, and one interception turned potential touchdowns into field goals. These are the kind of miscues that let you win the stat categories but still suffer a devastating loss to a directional school in your own state.
Next Up
Florida heads to Baton Rouge for its SEC opener against LSU. The Tigers are 2–0 after a season-opening win over Clemson.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
