Florida looks to stop freefall on road against Hurricanes

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The Gators are searching for answers. After back-to-back losses against USF and LSU, the Gators head to Coral Gables (sort-of) to face Mario Cristobal and the Miami Hurricanes.

The offense has been anemic, scoring 13 points per game over the last two. Billy Napier has struggled, first with his clock and game management against USF, and then with his inability to calm down his struggling QB against LSU.

But as I’ve looked at the stats coming into this one, I think Florida actually has something bigger to worry about.

That Gators Defense

The Gators defense pitched a shutout against an overmatched LIU team to open the year. Then they surrendered an average of 19 points per game against USF and LSU, including 10 points directly tied to D.J. Lagway interceptions against the Tigers. So, pretty good performances, right?

Well, I’ve spent a lot of time the last few years citing yards per play as the key stat to look at when it comes to future performance. The thinking is that stat correlates really well to scoring over time and if you’re giving up big chunks of yardage even if you’re not giving up points, eventually offenses will figure out a way to punch the ball in.

So how did the Gators do against the Bulls and Tigers in this category?

• USF – 391 yards on 65 plays (6.0 yards per play)
• LSU – 316 yards on 52 plays (6.1 yards per play)

That has Florida ranked 101st in yards per play allowed vs. FBS opponents. 6.1 yards per play would have ranked in the 100’s last year as well.

I’ll be honest, I was shocked when I looked up the Gators ranking on defense. I had spent so much time thinking about Lagway, Napier’s play calling, and the anemic offense that I hadn’t even caught that essentially, Florida’s defense has been getting lucky.

LSU had 5 scoring opportunities (inside Florida’s 40-yard line) and came away with 10 points. USF had 5 opportunities as well, and scored 16 points. Miami is averaging 5.5 points per scoring opportunity thus far in 2025, meaning if they get 5 opportunities as well, they’re going to score 28.

Some of this is by design as the Gators defense want to keep things in front of them. But I can’t help but think that some of it is luck and the opposing QB, and that the dam may be about to break.

Lagway vs. Beck

Last year, Carson Beck was average for Georgia, with a QB rating of 145.3 and 12 interceptions. But that wasn’t true in 2023 for the Bulldogs, when Beck had a QB rating of 167.9.

The 2023 version of Beck is back this year for the Hurricanes, as he has a national best QB rating of 185.7 and has thrown seven TDs to two INTs.

D.J. Lagway has gone in the opposite direction. Last year, Lagway sported a QB rating of 154.9, but after three games this season, that rating is at 128.3, much because of his six interceptions.

Interestingly, the place where Lagway was criticized so much this offseason – completion percentage – hasn’t been an issue. Lagway has completed 71 percent of his throws. The problem is that they aren’t producing anything of value, as he’s only averaging 6.3 yards per attempt (compared to 10.0 last year) and 8.9 yards per completion (16.7 last year).

If we look at the film, it’s easy to see why.

This is a fourth down play that Lagway completes to running back Jadan Baugh. By a lot of metrics – completion percentage, success rate, and fourth down completion percentage among them – this is a positive play by Lagway. Except that this could have been a huge play to put Florida in position to score.

This is a pretty easy high-low read for Lagway. He has Tre Wilson (#3) running an out at the sticks. Then he has Vernell Brown (#8) running a corner right behind him. Lagway is looking that way initially and if the corner sits on the short route – likely since it is fourth down – that leaves Brown wide open behind him.

But before Brown comes open, Lagway has already lowered his head and started to break from the pocket, even though the offensive line has maintained a perfect pocket.

If Lagway lets this ball go to Brown, the Gators are looking at first down probably around the 20-yard line. Instead, they gain just a few yards and are right at the border of field goal range. Three plays later, Lagway will get uber aggressive and try to hit Wilson down the field into triple coverage for his fourth interception.

Yes, this was fourth down. Yes, Florida converted. But just like I said in my postgame recap of both the USF and LSU games, this offense isn’t good enough to get selective with when they’re going to take shots. If it is there, you have to take it. And when the defense cheats on second, third, or fourth-and-short, you have to make them pay.

Lagway hesitated here – and at other times in the game as well – and that’s a big reason why the Gators offense sputtered.

Takeaway

By yards per play, Florida has the 91st ranked offense against FBS opponents compared to the 24th best for Miami. Florida has the 101st ranked defense against FBS opponents compared to the 46th best for Miami.

The Hurricanes have a QB with the best QB rating in the country and wins over what many consider a good Notre Dame team and demolished the same USF team that came into Gainesville and handed the Gators a loss. Lagway is struggling. It’s uncertain whether Billy Napier will survive if this one gets ugly. And Florida’s defense has been lucky thus far.

In other words, the Gators come into this one as major underdogs.

I picked Florida last week for what I still think are sound reasons. The reasoning was that Lagway and Nussmeier had put up similar lows but that Lagway had a higher ceiling. Lagway gave the Gators a complete stinkbomb, which meant Nussmeier could play ultra conservative and still win the game.

Carson Beck is a different animal entirely. He has shown – both in his time at Georgia and in the three games at Miami – that he is capable of putting up highs just as high as Lagway. He also wasn’t a terrible QB last year even when he was struggling with Georgia. Yes, he threw too many interceptions and perhaps the two last week against USF are a harbinger of things to come, but if we’re talking about interceptions, Beck hasn’t been half as careless as Lagway.

I still have this little space in the back of my head that believes that what we’ve seen from Lagway thus far is something that can be turned around. But if Florida’s defense gets torched the way I think the underlying statistics indicate could happen with better QB play, I’m not sure an improved Lagway is even going to matter.

That would mean that Napier will have lost games because of coaching (USF), offense/QB play (LSU), and defense (Miami). That’s a big “yikes,” but also probably an apt description of the Napier era that should mercifully be over relatively soon.

Miami (-7.5) wins, 34-17.

Picks this year: 1-2 (1-2 ATS)

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