Napier era confirmed over with brutal loss to Miami

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The Billy Napier era may or may not be officially over after the Gators loss to the Hurricanes on Saturday night, but we’re just talking timing at this point.

We all heard the death rattle when Florida took over at their own 18-yard line with 13:13 left in the fourth quarter down 13-7. Napier called an inside run to Jadan Baugh for five yards. He then called a pitch to the boundary to Baugh for four yards to set up a third-and-1. And then came this….

I have been railing the last two weeks about Napier being ultra-conservative on second and third-and-shorts. Those are opportunities for you to get aggressive and try to put the defense on its heels. Instead, Florida decided to recede into its turtle shell and try for a first down instead.

Regardless of whether they got the first down, this is indicative of this team – and this offense – in general. Everything was so difficult for the offense all night. The Gators finally had the Miami defense on its heels, had the ‘Canes in a third-and-short situation, and were more worried about achieving a conversion than about winning the game.

I’m not sure anything sums up the Billy Napier era better than that.

Requiem for Napier’s Tenure

Back in November of last year after Athletic Director Scott Stricklin gave Napier a vote of confidence, here’s what I wrote:

“If things are messed up (and 15-18 overall and 1-10 against rivals is the very definition), and you’ve been in charge for 3 seasons, why haven’t you done something about it yet.”

Well, even with the winning streak at the end of last year, Napier now sits at 20-22 overall, 3-12 against rivals, and has driven a consensus top-15 team into the ground this season.

But I’ll come back to the third-down play that I referenced above as the true measure of this tenure. That’s because it speaks to the reason this season has fallen apart: the regression of D.J. Lagway.

In early December of 2022, Lagway committed to Florida and Napier. This was just prior to early signing day for Napier’s second (i.e. bump) recruiting class.

The bump class is the most critical talent acquisition period for any new coach. The Nick Saban’s and Kirby Smart’s of the world have used that class to find multiple NFL starters who would headline on national championship teams. Those who haven’t found multiple NFL-quality players in that class who starred in college within three years of their recruitment, haven’t found championship-level success.

And although Lagway wasn’t a part of that 2023 class (he was a 2024 commit), the hope was that by having an elite 5-star QB, that would lead to an elite bump class. But that didn’t happen.

There are solid starters – particularly on defense – who have emerged from that 2023 class. Defensive backs Jordan Castell, Bryce Thornton, Aaron Gates, Sharif Denson, and Dijon Johnson were all in that class. So was linebacker Jaden Robinson, running back Ja’Kobi Jackson, and wide receiver Tre Wilson.

But none of those guys are Dont’a Hightower or D’Andre Swift.

And so without those high-level, star-caliber players, Napier had one place to turn in 2025: 5-star phenom D.J. Lagway.

Now, Lagway hasn’t done a lot to inspire confidence this season. His best game was against an overmatched LIU squad and he wasn’t even that great in that one. He struggled against USF, was downright awful against LSU, and then had the keys taken away from him in this one against Miami.

I say “had the keys taken away” not because I think Lagway would have been able to win this game. His confidence is clearly rattled and he missed multiple easy throws to the outside to Hayden Hansen and others throughout this tilt.

Instead, I say it because Napier continues to put Lagway out there, but does not have enough confidence in the guy to give him a chance to make a big play on second and third-and-short situations.

It was unfair of Napier to cast every hope of Gators fans onto Lagway, but that’s what he did when he couldn’t convert Lagway’s commitment into an elite bump class. The result was that his tenure at Florida was always going to be decided by whether Lagway could carry a talented, yet flawed, team.

I thought coming into the year – as did many pundits and fans – that Lagway would be able to do just that. Napier did too, as he spent the offseason talking about championship-level practices and how this is his most talented team in Gainesville.

Well, we were all wrong.  And next year clearly requires a change, whether that happens now, before the Georgia bye week, or at the end of the season.

The Defense

I maligned the Gators defense coming into this game. They ranked 101st in yards per play allowed against FBS opponents coming into the game. They leave with that ranking substantially improved (68th), much of that because they only surrendered two explosives to Miami. This was an excellent performance.

But let’s not call this a championship-level defense just yet.

This defense has been very good at limiting quarterback success thus far. Opposing QBs have a QB rating of 120.0 against Florida’s defense and a Yards Above Replacement (YAR, my stat that takes QBs running and throwing efficiency into account) of -0.56.

But the Gators defense has also surrendered 408 rushing yards on 100 carries in the last three games (4.1 yards per rush). That rises to 4.3 yards per rush if we look at just designed runs, which ranks 69th nationally.

The offense certainly isn’t doing it any favors. I understand why the defense was gassed at the end of this game against the Hurricanes. But the fact remains that after Florida’s offense got stuffed on that third down, Miami countered with a 13-play, 80-yard drive that took 7:12 off the clock and included 10 runs to put the game away.

And if this was an isolated incident, then maybe you cut some slack. But this is also a unit that allowed USF to drive down its home field to salt that game away too.

I know fans want to point to bright sides and blame one side of the ball when that side looks as bad as Florida’s offense looked the entire game. But Napier hasn’t left this team any margin for error, which means that this defense isn’t good enough.

It’s a fine unit. It’s much improved from last year, and certainly from the two years before that. But it isn’t a savior for Napier or this team. The only place that is going to come is on the offensive side of the ball.

Time for Tramell Jones?

This seems like a stupid question. Napier giving up on the guy who had us all presuming he had at least a two-year window because of Lagway’s eligibility would truly signal the end.

But you can’t get much worse than Lagway has been over the past four weeks. My YAR stat has him at performances of -1.13 vs LIU, -1.02 vs. USF, -1.66 vs. LSU, and -4.72 in this one. On the YAR scale, 0 is average, -1.0 is really bad, 1.0 is really good, and 2+ is Heisman-level.

So Lagway has been really bad to truly awful in each of his four starts.

Jones has only thrown 18 passes against LIU, but what’s he going to do? Throw five picks? Already seen that? Average 2.7 yards per attempt? Just saw that too.

The more disturbing piece is that Lagway is actively getting worse – and more tentative – with each start. This is where having a solid transfer QB in the room behind him to let him sit for even a drive would be valuable.

Napier tried to relieve some of that weight on Lagway’s shoulders to open the second half against the Hurricanes. He (finally) called a few runs outside the tackles, one of which turned into the Gators only explosive of the night. And 10 of the 11 plays called on that drive were runs (including two designed for Lagway).

But you can only do that for so long. Eventually the defense creeps up and start shooting gaps. Eventually you get to third-and-short and have to make a choice: run into the teeth of the defense or take a shot.

Napier made his choice in this one. If he doesn’t trust Lagway to make a different choice next time, then he needs to find someone he does.

Takeaway

This was a really tough article to write. Usually, I try to break down what happened in a particular game and explain why it happened. But I couldn’t bring myself to watch that slop again.

It was also tough because I care, probably way too much.

I said on this week’s Gators Breakdown that there was still this little place in the back of my mind that reserved hope that Lagway could turn it around. I tuned in tonight expecting Florida to get beat, but still hopeful that I wouldn’t have to go to church tomorrow to talk to Tom the greeter who sees me in my Florida gear every Sunday and gives me his condolences.

But the Napier era is like the movie Groundhog Day.

Every Saturday I wake up hoping things will be different, but then we get the same results. There is always a kick in the gut, albeit usually in a completely different – and sometimes cruelly creative – way, but the kick eventually comes.

The first half against Miami was about as depressed as I’ve been as a Florida fan, and we’ve seen some tragic days since I started covering the team in 2016. D.J. Lagway was a great QB. I have no idea what Napier did to him.

But Napier still managed to pull me back in with that touchdown drive to open the second half. Everything in me was telling me not to get sucked back in, but then Cormani McClain picked off Carson Beck on Miami’s next play and Florida took over near midfield. Back in business, baby!

So consider me scarred by the subsequent Gator drive ending on a 2-yard pass on fourth-and-3.

There may be some Gators fans who are apathetic at this point, but I’m not one of them. I love this program, and I love how it helps me connect with my son and my friends. So what I’m feeling isn’t apathy, but some kind of strange self-loathing, where I know it probably isn’t good for me to watch, I know I’m going to get kicked in the gut yet again, but I also know I’ll be tuning in two weeks from now to see if things are any different against Texas.

And if you’ve read this far, you’re going to be right there with me.

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