Out of Chances: Florida officially out of playoff race after loss to Texas A&M

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I’ve said all season long that until Florida had four losses, they at least had a mathematical chance to make the College Football Playoff. Well, after a 34-17 loss to Texas A&M, the Gators are now eliminated from playoff contention, and Billy Napier’s fourth year is officially a failure.

I don’t write those words with glee. I wanted to believe. I wanted this to be a year of redemption for Napier. He had four offensive linemen – including one All-American – coming back on offense. He had a stud running back in Jadan Baugh. He had two five-star wide receivers. He had Caleb Banks and Tyreak Sapp returning on the defensive line. And he had D.J. Lagway to pilot the whole thing.

Well, the offensive line was a mess against A&M. The defense got torched to start the game. And Lagway looked pedestrian after the first two drives as the Florida offense stalled the rest of the game.

To its everlasting credit, the team played hard. But as he has repeatedly in his Florida tenure, Billy Napier and his staff did not put the players in the best position to succeed.

And that’s the story of why Florida lost this game, and why this season is now just a matter of playing out the string.

Losing before Halftime

Florida went into the half down by a touchdown, but it should have been much closer. I say this because Napier made the same mistake that I’ve been harping about all season long.

This play was with 1:21 left in the half at mid-field on second-and-1. You need at least 20 yards to get into field goal range. You still have time to drive down and get a touchdown. Instead, Napier called a run play to get a first down.

First downs are valuable, but you don’t get points for first downs. Second-and-1 is a prime time to take a shot because the defense is creeping up. And since there is limited time on the clock, you don’t have the ability to methodically make your way down the field.

In this game, Florida had five explosive plays. All 17 of their points were directly tied to at least one explosive play. That’s the way college football works. You have to create explosive plays or you end up with an anemic offense.

After Napier got the first down from the play above, he then called a shot play. But Florida’s offensive line couldn’t hold up and Lagway threw an incompletion with 42 seconds left. The Gators then ran Baugh for zero yards to ostensibly force A&M to call a timeout.

So to be clear, here’s what Florida achieved with Napier’s play calls. They started with 1:21 left on the clock and a second-and-1 at midfield. Three plays later, they sat at third-and-10 at the Texas A&M 48-yard line with 38 seconds left.

This team isn’t good enough to just give away free points. Maybe they don’t connect on a second-and-1 shot downfield. But you can run the ball on third down if you miss and end up in the same situation.

It’s just suboptimal game management, which has been the only thing that is consistent in the Billy Napier era.

Conservative to be conservative

Amazingly, this wasn’t even Napier’s worst call of the night.

Instead, that was when Florida faced a third-and-8 from the Texas A&M 33-yard line down ten points.

To set the stage, Florida had averaged 1.7 yards per play in the second quarter after an explosive start (9.2 yards per play in the first quarter). They then came out in the third quarter and Vernell Brown fumbled after a third-and-16 screen pass that allowed A&M to go up by 10.

So you have an offense that has been sputtering badly. You’re down by 10 points. You’re already in field goal range (51-yarder with an incomplete pass). Yes, third-and-8 is a tough conversion, but Florida instead ran the ball with Baugh (6-yard gain) and settled for a 45-yard field goal to pull within a touchdown.

The ramifications of this decision weren’t truly felt until later in the game. After Florida turned the ball over on downs (again, after a really conservative third-down call that set up a questionable decision to go for it on fourth down), A&M was up by a touchdown and driving deep in Florida territory. Regardless of whether the Florida defense held them to a field goal or gave up a touchdown, A&M was going to be able to make it a two-score lead.

The drive wound up ending in a touchdown and took more than eight minutes off the clock so probably ended the game anyway. But Napier’s conservatism throughout this game cost his team points and any chance to win the game. And unfortunately, that isn’t an isolated incident.

Quarterback Play

Somehow Florida was still in this game even with its struggles on offense, and that’s because A&M had similar struggles on their side.

After Marcel Reed started off the game looking like Peyton Manning, he cooled off considerably. He ended the game with a QB rating of 142.1 and a YAR of 1.57. That YAR comes mostly because he averaged 5.3 yards per rush, indicating that Florida couldn’t produce any negative plays.

And despite whatever limitations Reed had, Lagway was worse. Despite having two touchdowns and zero interceptions, he ended the game with a QB rating of 130.2 and a YAR of -1.69. That just isn’t good enough.

And yes, the offensive line didn’t do him any favors. And yes, Florida didn’t have much of a running game to help him either. But he missed way too many throws just because his footwork was terrible. And given that he adds zero in the running game, he just has to be better for Florida to succeed.

Napier isn’t doing him any favors with his play calling. They didn’t appear to come back to much of what worked in the first quarter. And they rarely roll him out of the pocket but when they do, he’s actually pretty successful.

But if you want to be a big-time QB in the SEC, you have to perform even in sub-optimal conditions. Lagway hasn’t shown an ability to do that in 2025.

Takeaway

I wrote an article in our preseason magazine called “The Billy Napier Conundrum.”

In it, I explained why I understood that people doubted that Napier would get the job done. From his offensive record in his career, to his game and clock management decisions, to his current record at Florida coming into the year, I completely understood the doubters.

But I came into this season as excited as I’d been in a while for a Florida season because of all the things non-Billy Napier. I saw what the defense did in the second half of the season last year and that’s not Napier so should be replicable. I saw what Lagway did when he was the starter and figured he’d either force Napier to change or be able to overcome some of the playcalling limitations.

But I was wrong.

When you have a head coach who doesn’t put his players in a position to succeed, those players – regardless of how hard they play – aren’t going to be able get the job done consistently. That’s what’s happening on the field right now, and it’s a big reason why Florida is 2-4 but we can easily see a situation where the record could be a lot better.

But that’s the thing about Napier. We see the same things over and over, year after year, and they never change. So if we think they’re going to change now, then we’re either not paying attention or have our orange and blue glasses on despite the evidence in front of us.

I prefer to live in the real world. And in that world, Florida is a football program that deserves more than what Billy Napier is providing it. And fundamentally, it is time for a change.