The case against Georgia repeating as SEC East champion

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I believe recruiting is directly tied to winning.

That’s why it’s so dispiriting to see all of the recruits who are flocking to Georgia. Seven 5-star recruits committed to the Bulldogs in the 2018 recruiting cycle, and another five are on the way next year thus far.

Add to that the return of QB Jake Fromm, and it’s not a surprise that Georgia got 272 out of a possible 285 first place votes to win the East at SEC Media Days.

But if recent history teaches us anything, it’s that excellent recruiting and the return of a great QB does not guarantee immediate success. Gators fans don’t have to point any further than 2007 for an example.

2007 Florida Gators

The 2007 Florida Gators were coming off of a national championship in 2006. Chris Leak was gone, but Tim Tebow had contributed heavily to the championship team the year before and was ready to take over. And take over he did.

That Gators offense was truly explosive, averaging 42.5 points per game (up from 29.7 ppg in 2006). That should have spelled doom for the rest of the SEC, right? After all, the offense got significantly better in year three under Urban Meyer and he had just brought in the top recruiting class, sporting 18 blue-chip recruits, 5 of them 5-stars.

But the Gators couldn’t repeat. The 2007 season – even with a Heisman Trophy Winning QB – only resulted in a Capital One Bowl loss to Michigan along with disappointing losses to Auburn, LSU and Georgia.

The cause for the difficulties was the defense, which surrendered 25.5 points per game in 2007 after only having given up 13.5 points per game in 2006. But this wasn’t because of a lack of talent. In fact, just based on star rating, the 2007 defense was more talented.

Instead, it was due to lack of experience. The 2006 defensive starters averaged 3.5 years of experience versus 2.5 for the 2007 starters after having to replace 9 starters on that unit.

The expectation was that the new recruits would be able to fill the holes left by more experienced but less talented players. That turned out to not be the case.

2018 Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia hasn’t seen quite the exodus that Florida did on defense in 2007. However, the Bulldogs do need to replace 9 of its top 15 tacklers. That includes linebackers Roquan Smith and Lorenzo Carter and defensive backs Aaron Davis and Dominick Sanders.

That’s a lot of firepower to replace, even with 5-star recruits.

That’s 455 total tackles, 45.5 tackles for loss and 18 sacks. It basically amounts to 50 percent of all the plays made by the Georgia defense last season.

That defense was very good, allowing only 16.4 points per game. But it’s not hard to imagine that the defense will be slightly worse. And it doesn’t have to be 2007 Florida bad to make a difference.

A top-20 defense last season surrendered nearly 20 points per game. That is a reasonable expectation for Georgia with all of the losses, but is still an increase of 54 points overall compared to last season.

That’s important because I don’t see this Georgia team averaging 42 points per game like that 2007 Gators team did.

Again, the 2018 Georgia offense is probably more talented than the one last season. Every skill position player is a 5-star recruit except for QB Jake Fromm, who was a high-level 4-star. That only improves with the announcement that 5-star receiver Demetrius Robertson will be immediately eligible. Indeed, the lowest ranked player on the Georgia offense will be left guard Kendall Baker, rated the 272nd best player nationally in 2014.

But look at what that unit is missing in 2018 at the running back position.

With Nick Chubb and Sony Michel graduating, Georgia isn’t lacking for talent at the position. Sophomore D’Andre Swift – himself a 5-star recruit – played really well last season. But Chubb and Michel were drafted in the first 35 picks of last year’s NFL Draft. Those guys were/are special.

You can see that if you look at the chart above. While Georgia’s running backs averaged 6.0 yards per rush last season, that dropped to 5.1 when removing Michel and Chubb from the mix. Swift did average 7.6, but it remains to be seen whether he can sustain that with an increased workload.

Even if you project that the Georgia backs will get the same number of carries with a very healthy 5.1 yards per carry average, and that they produce proportionally the same number of touchdowns that they did last year, that still means a decrease of 15 touchdowns (105 points). That’s a lot of points for the rest of the offense to make up.

Georgia scored 531 points last year and gave up 246. If we subtract those 105 points and add the 54 points that a top-20 defense would surrender, the Bulldogs are a really, really good team (predicted wins based on score differential = 10.0). But that score differential is not last year’s juggernaut (predicted wins based on score differential = 12.4).

And I think the loss of the production of Chubb and Michel may be secondary to losing the constant threat of one of those guys back there.

This play seems pretty standard but is a good example of what I’m talking about. There is one-on-one coverage across the board with one safety in the deep middle for support. Fromm reads it correctly, delivers the ball outside to receiver Javon Wims and Wims wins the jump ball against Florida corner Marco Wilson for the touchdown.

But take a look at the formation. Georgia has four players split out wide and only one back (one of those receivers is tight end Jeb Blazevich, so Florida couldn’t know run or pass just based on personnel in the huddle, but it is second-and-14, so pass would typically be what you would be protecting against). Florida has six men in the box against only five blockers.

If the Gators could stop the run with its front-four plus one linebacker (or had a linebacker who could cover Blazevich) that would allow the defense to drop into a 2-deep shell, preventing the throw to the outside. But Florida couldn’t stop Georgia’s running game all day long (292 yards on 8.3 yards per attempt), and Florida’s linebackers were poor in coverage. Thus, the outside was open.

In the National Championship game, Alabama was able to limit Georgia’s running backs (133 yards, 3.0 yards per rush). That allowed the Tide to play more zone.

On this play, you can see two things. First, before the snap, Georgia has 8 players bunched up at the line of scrimmage with only one wide receiver. Second, Alabama only has 8 men in the box. The Tide are daring Georgia to run the ball, but instead Georgia runs a play-action fake.

There are only three options for Fromm on this play. The first is the tight end (I believe Isaac Nauta, #18) streaking down the middle. The linebackers are fooled by the play-action and come up to make the tackle. Nauta is open immediately following the fake, but this is a throw where Fromm would need to thread the needle over the linebackers and underneath the other safety.

The second option is running back D’Andre Swift (#7) who comes open in the flat. This likely would be a short gain, but Swift is Fromm’s safety valve and where this ball goes if he gets into trouble.

The third option is the wide receiver at the top of the screen (Javon Wims, #6) who is going to be double-covered by the corner and the safety deep. Note how Alabama’s corner (Anthony Averett, #28) gets outside leverage, forcing the receiver back to the middle of the field (and the safety). The only way Fromm should go to Wims is if Alabama’s safeties cheat up to help against the run.

It looks like Fromm locks on to his outside receiver immediately, which is interesting considering that Nauta should be his first read. He then scrambles right into a sack instead of dumping the ball to Swift.

The real and mythical Jake Fromm

You could take these plays as anomalies. In the first play against Florida, Fromm made the correct read to throw outside. He made the wrong read on this particular play against Alabama and lost a yard on first down. No big deal, right?

Well, in 2016 with Jacob Eason at QB, Isaac Nauta caught 29 passes as a true freshman. Overall, Georgia tight ends caught 41 balls, plus another 8 to fullback Christian Payne. In 2017, Nauta only caught 9 passes, Payne didn’t catch any and Georgia tight ends totaled 22.

This is something I noted in my preview of the Florida/Georgia game last season. Fromm likes throwing outside. He’ll force the ball out there even when it shouldn’t be because he’s comfortable with those passes. It’s why I suggested that then Florida defensive coordinator Randy Shannon needed to play cover-2, even though the Gators would give up some plays in the running game.

Additionally, Fromm played significantly worse against better competition. Against unranked teams, Fromm was otherworldly. He averaged 9.9 yards per pass attempt and 3.9 yards per rush. That amounted to a yards above replacement (YAR) value of over 2, better than all QBs not named Baker Mayfield.

But against ranked teams, Fromm struggled. His yards per attempt decreased to 7.5, basically average. He took way more sacks, as he averaged -2.6 yards per rush. That amounted to a YAR of -0.69, on-par with Kellen Mond of Texas A&M.

It’s likely not a coincidence that in those games against ranked teams, Georgia averaged 4.7 yards per rush against 6.3 versus unranked teams. Losing Michel and Chubb isn’t going to help that. If those guys couldn’t get going against better competition, are Swift or others going to be able to?

And if they can’t, will that allow defenses to force Fromm to throw over the middle? He’s yet to show that he can do that consistently. If he does, Georgia’s offense is going to put up game show numbers. But if you can trick him to throw outside when he shouldn’t, he’s going to turn the ball over at a much higher clip than he did last year.

Jake Fromm is a good QB, and he played admirably after Jacob Eason was injured. Any true freshman with the poise to play his team into the national championship game is a good player. But the idea that he was fantastic all season just isn’t true.

He was below average (according to YAR) in 6 of Georgia’s 15 games. He only averaged 20.3 pass attempts per game, mostly because of his defense. That defense held opposing QBs to below average performances (based on YAR) in 13 of its 15 games.

He wasn’t asked to win games last year, and that was fine in 2017. It won’t be good enough in 2018.

Georgia’s Schedule

Last season’s regular season schedule was a little bit odd for Georgia. The Bulldogs played a lot of very good teams (Auburn twice, Alabama, Oklahoma and Notre Dame). Everybody else was pretty average, especially in the SEC East.

That amounted to an average opponents’ FPI of 42.2 (excluding the playoff), with an opponents average FPI at home of 42.6 and 41.8 on the road.

This season, the average opponents FPI has actually decreased to 46.1 based on ESPN’s initial rankings. The home schedule has gotten much easier, with an average FPI of 57.3. But the road FPI average has decreased to 27.7, meaning that Georgia is going to be tested more often on the road.

Last season, it was Auburn (a loss) and Notre Dame (a one-point win) balanced by Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Florida. This season, there aren’t any top-tier opponents on the road (unless you think, like I do, that LSU will be very good). But even if LSU is just a top-20 team, Georgia will have to go to both  South Carolina and Missouri in the first four weeks of the season.

The argument most people make for the SEC being the toughest conference is not the individual greatness of any one team. Rather it is the cumulative effect of having to play very good teams week after week. Last season, Georgia got to rest a lot.

Part of that was because the Bulldogs were better than everyone else. But part of that was also because the competition was pretty weak, especially at QB in the SEC East.

But this season, Florida’s QB play should be better under Dan Mullen. Tennessee should be better with the competition between Jarrett Guarantano and Keller Chryst. South Carolina has a third-year starter at QB in Jake Bentley. Missouri has a QB (Drew Lock) who graded out as the best in the conference last season. Jarrett Stidham was above average last season and should be better at Auburn. And I’m really high on Joe Burrow at LSU.

This isn’t going to be the cakewalk in the east that it was last season, and you have to wonder whether that will start to accumulate. Georgia has enviable depth because of its recruiting prowess, but if you put enough young guys into the lineup because of injuries, their inexperience will be exploited regardless of their athleticism.

Takeaway

All of this is likely wishful thinking. There is a really good reason that the SEC Media – and I – believe that Georgia should be favored to win the SEC East.

But this team isn’t invincible.

There are holes on the defense. There are major holes at running back. And there is still a young QB who was isolated from expectations last season who will feel them fully this season.

Additionally – and I don’t know whether this gets talked about enough – Kirby Smart has to deal with players who just experienced success buying in completely as a team. But those guys came to Georgia because Smart told them he could get them to the NFL, and they are going to want to see an increase in playing time soon.

There’s only so much playing time to go around. We’re seeing that at Alabama now, where Jalen Hurts has recently expressed frustration with the way the staff has handled the QB competition between he and Tua Tagovailoa. And that’s with an experienced staff led by the best coach of his generation.

Kirby Smart has shown to be a great recruiter. I don’t know that he has shown to be a great in-game coach yet. If you watch the film from the Tennessee game two years ago, Georgia’s strategy is a debacle. So was the busted coverage at the end of the championship game against Alabama.

If Fromm struggles, how will he and Smart handle the calls from fans to play Justin Fields, the number one recruit of the 2018 cycle? What happens if Fromm gets injured and Fields struggles? What if there’s a hangover from having a national championship in your hands and having it snatched away by a busted coverage on a second-and-23?

The good news for Georgia fans is that Smart has built a team with enough talent that it likely will be able to overcome much of what I’ve brought up here. Fromm could continue to develop into an elite QB. Swift could replace Michel and Chubb and become a Heisman candidate. Natrez Patrick could be a first round pick after filling Roquan Smith’s shoes at linebacker.

But it’s not as much of a sure thing as some would have you believe.