Can the Gators go into Knoxville and get the win against Tennessee?

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What do we make of the Tennessee Volunteers?

It’s pretty clear for Florida fans what the strengths and weaknesses of the Gators are. Certainly things looked much improved against Colorado State, but Tennessee – on the road – is a much stiffer challenge.

Yet Tennessee is relatively unproven as well. The Volunteers opened up receiving a 40-14 shellacking from West Virginia, allowing Will Grier to throw for over 400 yards at an incredibly efficient 12.6 yards per attempt.

But since then, Tennessee has pummeled a FCS school (East Tennessee State) 59-3 and a Conference USA team (UTEP) that is 0-3 this season after going 0-12 last season. That game was only 24-0 and Tennessee didn’t look very impressive. Clearly the Vols still have plenty left to prove.

But let’s be honest. So does Florida. The Gators have defeated a FCS school and a mid-major team and lost its only SEC game to Kentucky. While the Kentucky game was much closer than Tennessee’s loss to West Virginia, I think it’s likely that West Virginia is better than Kentucky.

These two teams have recruited relatively equally over the past four years, so there isn’t much of a talent gap. Certainly last season both teams underachieved, but there is talent on both rosters to work with.

The question going into this one is which head coach – Gators head coach Dan Mullen or new Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt – will be able to coax the most out of his players.

Tennessee Offense vs. Florida Defense

Vols QB Jarrett Guarantano has been pretty good this season with a yards above replacement (YAR) of 0.97. For an entire season, that would be a really good QB. He also has a QB rating of 161.3, which is borderline elite.

The problem is that much his statistics have come in the two cupcake games compared to West Virginia. His QB rating against the Mountaineers was 147.0, again very good. But his YAR was -1.34, driven into the negative because while he was very accurate (76% completions), he also only averaged 6.9 yards per attempt.

Guarantano doesn’t run very much (10 rush for -1 yards this season), so he has to throw efficiently to make the Vols offense move. He has shown the ability to do that against zone defenses.

On the play below, Guarantano threads the needle to fit the ball in against a 3-deep zone. He has a strong arm and is accurate with a quick release which allows him to make this throw.

The West Virginia defense is a 3-4 scheme, so it is instructive when considering what Gators defensive coordinator Todd Grantham may do. When West Virginia gave Guarantano time, he was able to pick up first downs consistently in the first half.

On this play, West Virginia’s linebackers are well off the line of scrimmage and drop into a zone. Guarantano quickly recognizes that he has 1-on-1 coverage on the outside, delivers the ball accurately and is able to pick up the first down.

Where Guarantano struggled against West Virginia is when the Mountaineers brought pressure, but it wasn’t necessarily his fault.

On this play, there is a complete breakdown in pass protection. West Virginia brings seven defenders versus six blockers so one guy should come free. But two guys come free, including one who has a clear path to Guarantano without anyone getting in their way while the running back doesn’t block anyone. Guarantano gets drilled and the pass sails long.

You’ll notice on this play that there is no deep safety. He had to come up to cover because of the all-out blitz. Had the blitz not gotten there, Tennessee would have had a big play. But when you don’t block two blitzers, it is unlikely that your QB will have time to get the pass off accurately.

Offensive line play is a consistent theme when going through the Tennessee’s film against West Virginia, particularly in the interior of the line.

On this play, Tennessee’s left guard doesn’t get out quick enough to block the West Virginia nose tackle. It looks like it is supposed to be a combo block between the left guard and center with the center then leaking out to take on the linebacker.

However, the nose tackle is able to shoot the gap and make the tackle for a loss. West Virginia was bringing extra men up to the line of scrimmage on this play so maybe it is understandable that Tennessee’s line got overwhelmed.

You can’t say the same for this next play.

Here they just don’t block the nose tackle. Tennessee’s left guard didn’t block anyone on the play. Without knowing the line call, you wouldn’t be able to determine whether this is his fault. But the fact remains, you’re not going to be able to run up the middle without blocking the guy at the point of attack.

Tennessee’s offensive line repeatedly missed blocks against West Virginia. Certainly this wasn’t the case in its next two games, but Florida is very different than UTEP or ETSU.

Now, Florida had its own issues against Kentucky. Those included both tackling up-front and at the linebacker position as well as coverage deep. There were two major coverage breakdowns that led to touchdowns. That was supplemented by allowing Benny Snell and Terry Wilson to both run for over 100 yards.

Gap discipline for the linebackers and safeties was particularly poor. Much of that appeared to be addressed against Colorado State, but it will be critical that defenders stay disciplined in this game.

Tennessee was only able to manage three explosive plays against West Virginia, and averaged 3.8 yards per play when those were subtracted out. Compare that to Florida, who has averaged over 4.5 yards per play when explosive plays are removed this season.

This says that the Vols offense isn’t likely good enough to put sustained drives together all the way down the field. A lot of that is attributable to the breakdowns in run blocking. Grantham’s aggressiveness sometimes bites him, but in this particular game, it might be an asset.

Still, I can’t help but look at Guarantano completing over 72 percent of his passes and averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and wonder if he’s built some confidence in the past two weeks. Add to that Florida’s discipline problems in the run game and that may force Grantham to dial back his aggressiveness (or pay for it).

Florida’s defense wasn’t good against the pass in 2017 (8.0 yards per attempt allowed) or in its one game against SEC competition (9.4 yards per attempt against Kentucky). Part of that is because the Gators got zero pressure on Kentucky QB Terry Wilson. If Guarantano isn’t under pressure, he’ll pick apart a depleted Florida secondary.

Advantage: Tennessee

Florida Offense vs. Tennessee Defense

Last season, Tennessee’s defense had significant issues. Because the Vols couldn’t stop the run, three of its top five tacklers were defensive backs and none of them were defensive linemen.

That has improved significantly this season as linebackers Darrin Kirkland, Jr. and Daniel Bituli are the team’s top-two tacklers. But Tennessee also hasn’t face a team that wants to run the ball against them and has the talent to do it.

West Virginia was content chucking the ball all over the Tennessee secondary and UTEP and ETSU were overmatched. But Florida is going to want to run the ball on the road with a hostile crowd.

As much flak as the Gators offensive line has received, the running game actually hasn’t been too bad. The Gators have averaged 5.7 yards per rush in its first three games and even averaged 4.4 yards per rush against Kentucky. That’s part of why it was so puzzling that Mullen went away from the running game as Florida wasn’t completely ineffective.

I actually do think that Mullen may need to go away from the run in this game. Feleipe Franks has improved this year, and while he may not be ready to have the game on his back, if he can speed up his decision making he can take advantage of Tennessee’s defense.

Watch here as Will Grier makes a decision almost immediately about where he’s going to go with the ball. It’s a quick 10-yard pickup where the slot receiver is being guarded by a linebacker.

On this play Grier is again able to hit the slot receiver down the middle beyond the linebackers and under the safeties. This is where Florida is going to need to attack.

That’s great news if Mullen schemes correctly because Florida has the players to attack down the center of the field.

On this play, Franks hits running back Jordan Scarlett down the center of the field behind the linebackers for an explosive play. Scarlett is too fast for a linebacker. This is a mismatch that Florida needs to take advantage of if it is presented by Tennessee.

Additionally, I would like to see Florida put wide receiver Kadarius Toney into the slot in the same way West Virginia did with David Sills. Toney is fast enough and shifty enough that he has a chance to turn that 10-yard gain into a 50-yard gain. But he has to be in the center of the field to take advantage of the weakness of Tennessee’s linebackers in coverage.

Tennessee also really struggled with tackling on the back end.

On this play, Grier hits his receiver in stride against a zone defense. The first defender to attempt the tackle just bounces off the receiver. Additional defenders take bad angles to the ball and allow him to get all the way to the end zone.

If Franks can complete the ball down the field, Tennessee’s secondary is going to struggle to tackle its wide receivers or running backs in space just like they did with West Virginia. Obviously Florida will want to run the ball and running the ball will open these things up, but the key for Florida is whether it can hit some big plays against the Tennessee secondary.

I think they’ll be able to do so.

Advantage: Florida

Prediction

I think the Tennessee offense has an advantage on the Florida defense. I think the Florida offense has an advantage on the Tennessee defense. So now we’re talking about degrees.

The key question to me is whether being on the road impacts Franks significantly enough that Tennessee is able to take advantage. Unfortunately, I think that’s probably the case.

Last season, Franks was bad at home (YAR = -1.29) but he was even worse away from the Swamp (YAR = -1.63). His QB rating was 118.2 at home and 103.2 away from home. His QB rating this year so far is 148.8 with a YAR of 0.32. If he sees a similar reduction in YAR that he saw last year, his YAR will be -0.02 (or basically exactly average). That’s what we should expect from Franks and I think would actually be a pretty good performance.

The problem is that average QB play isn’t likely going to be enough to win the game with a struggling defense and offensive line. Franks is going to have to play better than last year’s performances suggest.

I think he’ll probably do better than I think, but I also am not sure it will be enough. If that’s the case, Florida keeps the game extremely close and Franks or Guarantano will have an opportunity to pull out the game in the end.

I’m heading to Knoxville and will be yelling as loud as I can for Franks to pull it out, but based on what I’ve seen so far, I trust Guarantano more.

Tennessee wins, 27-24.

Picks this year thus far: 2-1 straight up, 1-2 ATS

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