The Florida football team is still riding high following the big win over LSU. But on Saturday, the team will head to Nashville to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores.
The angel on my shoulder is telling me Florida can easily return to the Swamp with a 6-1 record going into the bye week. The devil is taunting the 12 PM kickoff on the road against a mediocre team. Three things that can spoil a season if the “better” team doesn’t take it seriously enough.
History is Well… History
For the most part, the Gators get the best of the ‘Dores. Florida’s all-time record against Vanderbilt is 39-10-2.
Of those 39 wins, 22 of them were consecutive (from 1989 – 2012) and the Gators have won every game since 2014. That includes a 7-1 record since Urban Meyer left Gainesville, but the average score of those games has been 24-17, not exactly a blowout.
Coach Mullen is creating a culture of starting each week with something to prove. So far, it’s won Florida more games at the halfway point in 2018 than it did in all of 2017. But this is the first time the team has entered a game with real expectations.
Besides the fact that much worse Florida teams have gotten past Vanderbilt over the years, the Commodores aren’t looking significantly better than they’ve been in the past. (Save for that weird close one against now-No. 5 Notre Dame).
The Dores come up just short.
Notre Dame 22, Vanderbilt 17#VUvsND #AnchorDown pic.twitter.com/CjIwhzQ4Nf
— Vanderbilt Football (@VandyFootball) September 15, 2018
Their only wins this season are against Middle Tennessee, Nevada, and Tennessee State, two teams ranked 92 and 98 in ESPNs FPI and a FCS team. And the win over FCS Tennessee State was only by four points.
SEC play has not been kind to the Commodores. Vandy is 0-2 in the SEC after losing to South Carolina and Georgia by a combined 51 points. It’s a pretty uphill battle to prevent the one-loss Gators from making them 0-3.
Avoiding the Upset
Upsets happen and you don’t often see them coming. Last season, Clemson lost to just two teams: Alabama and Syracuse. LSU beat Florida and Auburn immediately after an embarrassing loss to Troy.
Troy wasn’t immune to regression either, following up the LSU win with a loss against Southern Alabama. Syracuse didn’t win another game for the rest of the season. That makes me think that it wasn’t so much that Troy or Syracuse had breakout games. Instead, it’s likely that LSU and Clemson just didn’t come ready to play.
The Gators have yet to fall into that trap this season in games against what would be considered truly sub-par opponents. But after big back-to-back wins as the underdog, this would be the week for Florida to slack off.
Mullen’s Gators are even drawing praise from some of its harshest critics over the years.
What an extraordinary victory by Florida. The difference Dan Mullen has made here is breathtaking.
— Paul Finebaum (@finebaum) October 6, 2018
Marcus Spears said Florida got the best D in the SEC🤔👀
— Dopey David (@DavidIsLoyal) October 4, 2018
That’s got to feel good. The fan base is fully energized and ready for Spurrier era-type blowouts. But it is a different problem for these players to handle. We’ll see if they’re able to put aside the praise and focus on the task at hand against Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt vs. Florida: The Breakdown
But enough about hypothetical wins, losses, and upsets. Let’s dive into some stats.
At quarterback, Feleipe Franks is gaining confidence of the Florida fan base. Kyle Shurmur has played similarly to Franks, but hasn’t received near the accolades because he is putting up almost an identical performance to last season (QB rating of 134.9 this year compared to 137.6 last season).
Franks currently has 1,122 passing yards under his belt and is hitting on 54.9 percent of his attempts. Shurmur has passed for 1,400 yards, completing 60.4 percent of his passes.
Both players have big arms, but Franks’ progress is more measured in being able to make adjustments on the fly. For example, Franks’ longest throw this year is 65 yards, but 50 of those yards were after the catch because he was able to find an open Freddie Swain when the initial play broke down.
Shurmur’s long went for 68 but that was against Tennessee State. Against stiffer competition (Notre Dame, South Carolina and Georgia), his long is 30 yards. The Commodores are going to need bigger plays than that to keep this one close.
One thing that could hurt Florida, though, is if they get into third-and-long situations.
And here's how each QB performs when throwing past the sticks on 3rd and 4th down pic.twitter.com/DOwwhN9zeK
— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) October 11, 2018
Even though Franks and Shurmur throw the ball past the sticks at almost the exact same rate on third and fourth down, Shurmur completes the ball way more often. Interestingly though, Florida ranks 77th in third down conversion percentage (37.3%) compared to 109th for Vanderbilt (32.8%) against FBS competition.
That clearly means that Florida is getting first downs via the run. It’s no secret that the Gators have one of the most solid running back groups in the SEC. Jordan Scarlett has received quite a bit of criticism from Gators fans, but he is doing a good job of gaining yardage almost every play, ensuring the offense doesn’t end up off-schedule.
Here are the SEC running backs with the lowest Stuff Rate this season (att for 0 or neg. yards) pic.twitter.com/yd7hJFLNGE
— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) October 10, 2018
The result is a 5.0 yards per carry average in-line with his career at Florida. Add that to Lamical Perine (5.5 yards per carry and a break-out performance against LSU) and Dameon Pierce (10.6 yards per rush) and Florida has barely missed Malik Davis since his injury.
Vanderbilt has mainly split its carries between Ke’Shawn Vaughn (65 att., 6.8 yards per rush), Khari Blasingame (47, 5.1) and Jamauri Wakefield (42, 4.9). Last week, Vaughn ran for 79 yards on 9 attempts against Georgia. He’s also forced 16 missed tackles, which hasn’t cropped up recently for the Gators but was an issue earlier in the season.
The defensive side of the ball is where Florida differentiates itself, and it’s not even particularly close. In total defense, the Gators rank 19th in the country. The Commodores are 81st.
Here are the leading pass-rush duos for every team in the SEC pic.twitter.com/dUwzeejyEy
— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) October 5, 2018
On the edge, the bruising duo of Jachai Polite and Jabari Zuniga is tied for second in the conference in QB pressures. Vanderbilt’s two best pass rushers are ranked dead last. Add to that the 12.5 tackles for loss from linebacker Vosean Joseph and hybrid Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and the pressure on Shurmur should be intense.
Florida’s offense still has warts, and Franks and Shurmur have pretty much been identical players through the first six games of the season. But Florida’s defense should make the difference this weekend.
But Florida’s Next Game Is…
The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. A chance to pull one of the biggest upsets in college football. The year’s toughest test for Mullen and the team. Whatever you want to call it, Florida is taking on Georgia.
The next two weeks will be full of Bulldog hate. And you’d better believe that the players have already started to hear it.
After the loss to Kentucky, winning the SEC East seemed so far away. But with Kentucky’s loss to Texas A&M, the path looks to be clearing up. And as a student, I can feel the tide turning as people are beginning to talk about bigger things for this team. And it’s not just in Gainesville.
Not at all. UF/UGA about to have some WARS beginning this year. Gonna be fun. https://t.co/11RAkqzDvU
— Kirk Herbstreit (@KirkHerbstreit) October 11, 2018
Florida is the better team this week, particularly on defense. This should be an easy win. But Clemson and LSU were better teams than Syracuse and Troy last year.
Georgia is on the horizon. We as fans can talk about the battles coming against Georgia but if the Florida players are looking ahead, this could turn into a much more difficult game against Vanderbilt.
I think the good guys get it done. Florida wins this one 31-17.
