The Georgia Bulldogs are no longer on the fast track to Atlanta. Last week, the LSU Tigers put a damper on Georgia’s natty champ dreams, beating them 36-16. Now, Georgia is in a three-team race with Florida and Kentucky for the East.
LSU is a good team, so a win over the Dawgs was not groundbreaking. But, even though ESPN may have forgotten, LSU is beatable.
Brad Stewart gets a pick-six to help put Florida up 8 on LSU! #GoGators #CollegeFootball pic.twitter.com/QEyTyKdJA1
— The Game Haus Sports (@TGHSports) October 6, 2018
Florida, Georgia, and LSU are all 6-1 teams, each intertwined with one another. But, heading into Florida-Georgia, the LSU factor is confounding. The rankings say Georgia leaves with a win. The UCF transitive property puts the Gators on top in Jacksonville. But, in the SEC (and college football as a whole), anything can happen. Just ask Urban Meyer about Purdue.
LSU-Georgia Recap
For any Gator fans who missed the takedown in Baton Rouge, a projected battle quickly transformed into a blowout. At halftime, the Tigers were up 16-0.
LSU’s defense held Jake Fromm, one of the best quarterbacks in college football, to 209 yards and 47 percent passing. Before LSU, Fromm hit a healthy 74 percent of his targets through six games. Fromm also threw two interceptions (four all season) and suffered four sacks (ten all season) against the Tigers. Georgia managed just one touchdown through the air and one on the ground.
[stat box here please ^^]
Georgia’s defense did not look like the terror it was advertised as coming in. It allowed LSU to score three rushing touchdowns, two of which were by quarterback Joe Burrow. While LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran for 145 yards, perhaps the most astonishing stat was that Burrow (66 yards) outrushed every Georgia player except D’Andre Swift (72 yards).
Burrow, who the Gators intercepted twice, did not commit any INTs against Georgia. In the end, the Bulldogs allowed a total of 475 yards, an eye-popping 275 on the ground at a 5.4 yard per carry clip.
What Does This Mean for the Gators?
First of all, it means Florida’s defense can be really freaking good, even against Georgia. The Gators held LSU to just 19 points, while scoring 27 of their own. More importantly, it means that this Florida team has the ability to wreck an elite team if they come in with the right mindset.
The Gators topped Vanderbilt, but it was a dicey situation well into the third quarter. When asked about the game, defensive tackle Elijah Conliffe told reporters that the team originally went in thinking “it’s just Vanderbilt.” That kind of attitude almost cost the Gators dearly.
That attitude is unlikely to carry over through a bye week or into a rivalry game like Georgia. The Gators have eight players who hail from the state of Georgia while the Bulldogs have 11 who come from Florida.
These teams are constantly battling for the same kids in recruiting. That means the players know each other. They’ll have something to prove and they won’t be scared of the opposition either. Quarterback Feleipe Franks said the matchup was “just the next game on the schedule.”
The Gators played with a reckless abandon against LSU and won. They are going to need that same energy, if not a little extra juice, against Georgia. The Bulldogs are going to come out charged up after the loss to LSU, so Florida must play its best game of the season to come out with a win.
Bye Week Business
Since both teams are coming off bye weeks, each has seven games to analyze. The comparison should be pleasantly surprising for Gator fans.
On paper, Franks is not too far behind Fromm in the quarterback race.
Feleipe Franks vs. Jake Fromm in 2018 thus far. (Olivia Granaiola/Read and Reaction)
It is true that Fromm has a higher QB rating, mostly due to his higher completion percentage. But Franks makes up much of that gap by outrunning Fromm by 165 yards. Much of this is getting the ball out against the pass rush, as Florida ranks 19th in sacks allowed versus 54th for Georgia.
Both teams have a basic two-man rotation on the ground.
Jordan Scarlett and La’Mical Perine have combined for 757 yards and six touchdowns. The Dawg duo of Elijah Holyfield and D’Andre Swift have combined for 850 yards and eight touchdowns.
Comparison of Georgia and Florida’s running backs in 2018. (Olivia Granaiola/Read and Reaction)
While Georgia’s backs have been a little bit more efficient on the ground, Florida’s backs have made up for it through the air. This is a bit of surprise given how much of a weapon Swift was through the air last season. But it is Perine (8 catches for 142 yards) who has been the most effective receiver out of the backfield.
Both teams are loaded at wide receiver, with five Gator receivers and four Bulldogs logging at least ten receptions, with D’Andre Swift bringing in 10 as well.
Georgia vs. Florida receivers in 2018 thus far. (Olivia Granaiola/Read and Reaction)
Not too different. Florida has also completed passes to 19 different players versus 16 for Georgia. Kadarius Toney (9 catches), Perine (8) and tight end Moral Stephens (7) are not included in the chart but have more catches than anyone else on Georgia’s roster.
It is also worth noting that the Gators are going in having played a more difficult schedule. FPI actually says that they have played identical schedules (average ranking of 47.2). But if we look at the AP Poll, Florida has played teams ranked 4th and 12th with Mississippi State getting votes while Georgia has played teams ranked 4th and no other teams who received votes.
Florida is one of two teams in the country to have wins over two ranked teams and is also one of two teams to have a win over a team currently ranked in the top five. None of Georgia’s wins have records better than 4-3.
Against common opponents not LSU (Tennessee and Vanderbilt), Georgia has won those games 79-20 while Florida has won them 84-48. But to read much into that places a lot of significance on both teams’ wins over Vanderbilt, which for anyone who watched the Florida game knows was in the Gators control once they wanted it to be.
The reality is that the best marker is LSU as the common opponent. The Gators ran for 5 yards per carry against the Tigers and averaged 6.3 yards per pass. The Bulldogs ran for 3.8 and passed for 6.1. This suggests that the passing abilities of both teams is similar while Florida has the better running game.
Additionally it is worth considering that LSU had played in a really physical game against the Gators the week prior to playing Georgia while Georgia blasted Vandy. You would have expected LSU to be the team that wilted in the second half of that game but instead it was the opposite.
Final Thoughts
Florida and Georgia are tied for first in the East and both should be favored in every game from here on out. That means that the winner of the Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party has set themselves up to accomplish the season goals but the loser is basically done in the East.
Beyond this year’s goals, the recruiting implications can’t be ignored. These teams are going after similar players and in those cases, recruiting is a zero-sum game. That means that whether the result Saturday impacts 2019, 2020 or 2021, that impact is important.
Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer put a heightened emphasis on rivalry games because they understood that the fans are energized by beating rivals and players and recruits value that more than a win over Kentucky.
Dan Mullen has won his first two rivalry games (Tennessee and LSU). He has two left to finish out the year (Georgia and FSU). If he can get this game against Georgia, he has a real shot to start his Florida career 4-0 against major rivals.
Not even Saban or Meyer were able to accomplish that in year one.
CGator
I hope our players don’t read this story, they don’t seem to do well unless they have an underdog mentality. I commented on an earlier story that I still think Georgia is the better team, and thus rightly favored, because as improved as the Gators are, the coaches have been covering up multiple roster weaknesses, especially on the Oline, with creative schemes and play calling. But this is an interesting analysis, especially when you consider that the first time the Dawgs faced a truly good team they folded like a wet taco. But the LSU we beat didn’t look like the same team against Georgia, and being at home it might have been LSU’s best game of the season against Georgia’s worst. The Dawgs have a record under Smart of rebounding well from a bad loss.