A Lot Can Change in a Year: Florida Football Edition

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Tonight, the Florida football team found out that it will compete in a New Year’s Six bowl. This time last year, the Gators (and its fans) wondered if they would ever be relevant again. After a 4-7 season, another FSU loss, suspensions, injuries, etc., the program was in disarray.

When Dan Mullen made the jump to Gainesville, it seemed like a consolation prize after missing out on Chip Kelly and Scott Frost. But boy, can a lot change in just one year.

Skepticism and Slow Starts

Shortly after UF vetted coaches, Gator Nation seemed to latch onto any big name. Chip Kelly had some legendary years at Oregon, so he would naturally do the same at Florida. Scott Frost transformed a laughing stock UCF team into National Champions in just two years… imagine what he could do with the Gators!

When Gators Athletic Director Scott Stricklin seemed to settle on Mullen, the fanbase and the general sports world let out a big old “meh.”

I just don’t see Florida hiring Dan Mullen. Seems like it would be an underwhelming choice. Need a big-time hire.

— Derek Tyson (@DerekJTyson) October 30, 2017

Florida just laid a second straight egg on this coaching hire. I'd have no excitement to get Dan Mullen.

— Michael Spath (@MichaelSpathITH) November 26, 2017

Combine that with a good-but-not-elite 14th ranked transition recruiting class and a slow start on the 2019 recruiting trail and it seemed like the doubters might have a point.

I mean, Willie Taggart was hired by Florida State a week after Mullen and brought in a higher transition class (11th) and convinced 5-star defensive back Akeem Dent to stay put in the 2019 class.

Culture Change

Perhaps a slow start was expected for a team coming off such a demoralizing 2017 campaign. However, the minute Coach Mullen stepped off that plane doing the Gator chomp, he brought two things the team needed desperately… happiness and hope.

Florida fans rarely have anything remotely positive to say about Jim McElwain and I get it. But, the man did take the Gators to back-to-back SEC Championship appearances in his first two years. Fans will point out the then-depleted SEC East, Muschamp’s defense and back-to-back blowouts courtesy of Alabama. But still, Mac brought wins to Florida.

Urban Meyer may disagree, but winning is not everything. Ohio State might get a playoff spot, but at what cost? McElwain may have generated wins early, but ended up losing a decent amount of his team to credit card fraud (among other issues) and it eventually cost him his job.

Dan Mullen has built the “Gator Standard” into everything these players do and has instilled the values that go with it. He’s not afraid to rep that Standard, from doling out drug-related suspensions to halting a post-game interview when he thought a team member failed to show class.

For those who missed it or just want to hear it again, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson attempted to plant the Gator flag into the FSU emblem at midfield of Ron Zook Field after the Gators 41-14 win. This picture is pretty funny, but Gardner-Johnson only stopped trying after Mullen ran over yelling, “C! Knock that off!”.

https://twitter.com/diwunblack/status/1066520315369582592

But, Gardner-Johnson’s actions were somewhat reflective of the McElwain Era… I won so I can do whatever I want. Mullen’s actions were completely reflective of the Mullen Era… We won. Pack it up and have fun tonight, but tomorrow, we’re back to competing again, and not just at football.

Season Stack-Up

Coaching chase

Florida fans have been gunning for another National Championship since 2009. So, it is not hard to see why “immediate impact” was on the top of their lists for a coach.

At Oregon, Kelly posted a 46-7 record in four years, with three premiere bowls, plus a National Championship appearance. In his first year at UCLA, he finished 3-9.

Scott Frost turned an 0-12 UCF to 6-7 in his first year. Then, he turned 6-7 to 13-0, including a post-season win over Auburn. In his first year at Nebraska, he finished 4-8, albeit 4-2 in the Huskers’ last 6 games.

Mullen’s track record points to a builder instead of an immediate impact guy. He built Mississippi State from scratch and churned out Dak Prescott and Nick Fitzgerald over time. Florida had the some raw talent, but it just wasn’t playing to its potential. Mullen did not have to build a football program, he just had to shape it. And shape he did with a 9-3 overall record in his first year.

SEC standings

Florida is currently tied for second in the SEC East with Kentucky with a 5-3 conference record. Across the entire SEC, the Gators would be in a four-way tie for third place.

Six conference teams welcomed new coaches this year. This is how SEC Network grades them out…

Mullen: A
Fisher: A
Moorhead: B-
Luke: C+
Pruitt: C
Morris: D@PeterBurnsESPN's First-Year Head Coaching Grades ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/1VVc53Z8UO

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) November 26, 2018

Jimbo Fisher may be setting Texas A&M up to be a real contender. The Aggies are 8-4, including losses to Clemson and Bama. Plus, Fisher has already proven to be a championship coach at Florida State. And unlike in Tallahassee, he has $75 million reasons to stay put.

Joe Moorhead put Mississippi State in the same position they were in last year. 8-4 regular season, 4-4 SEC with Nick Fitzgerald basically duplicating the season he had under Mullen in 2017.

Matt Luke parlayed his 6-6 record as interim coach in 2017 amongst the Hugh Freeze hooker scandal into the head job in Oxford. Ole Miss took a step back to 5-7 overall (1-7 SEC) in 2018 with Jordan Ta’amu at QB and multiple NFL-caliber receivers on the roster. Plus, ex-Florida QB commit Matt Corral threw hands off the bench during the Egg Bowl. #CultureChange is apparently not an Ole Miss thing.

Chad Morris had an awful debut season. Arkansas won its two cupcake games this season and that’s why the Razorbacks are 2-10.

Perhaps the starkest comparison for Mullen’s impact is in the SEC East.

Jeremy Pruitt took over an 4-8 (0-8) Vols squad and improved them to 5-7 (2-6). He did this with recruiting classes with an average national ranking of 14.0 over the past four cycles and just two seasons removed from consecutive 9-4 campaigns.

Compare that to Mullen. The Gators were coming off of a 4-7 (3-5) season with an average national recruiting class ranking of 14.9 over the past four cycles. Prior to the 4-7 season, Florida had gone 10-4 and 9-4 in 2015 and 2016.

Mullen took the Gators from that 4-7 debacle to 9-3 (5-3 SEC) with basically the same team as last year. And he did it while defeating three of Florida’s four biggest rivals (Tennessee, LSU and FSU).

in-state standings

Outside of the SEC, Florida football is part of a “Big 3” in the state. This year, the Gators are the Big 1.

Mark Richt brought Miami back… last year. This year, the Canes are 7-5 (4-4 ACC) in 2018. That’s a typical down season for typical ACC contenders like Virginia Tech but not even close to this year’s expectations at “the U”.

Miami was ranked #8 in the preseason and failed to live up to that lofty perch. With mayhem under center (and both on and off the field), it looks like the Canes are experiencing some of the same pains that Georgia fans eventually got fed up with when it came to Richt. Miami also currently has the lowest 2019 recruiting class ranking (both in total points and average recruit ranking) of the Big 3.

Willie Taggart did great things at USF and good things at Oregon. However, it looks like he is going to need some time (if it is given to him) at Florida State. The 2017 Noles went 7-6 and beat Southern Mississippi in the Independence Bowl. The 2018 Noles are 5-7 and will not compete in a bowl game for the first time in 36 years.

The defense took a major step back, allowing an average of 33 points per game. Despite a skilled quarterback in Francois, he was unable to duplicate his success from two seasons ago and the offense was McElwainian, averaging 21.9 points per game. The Seminoles are statistically the most talented team in the state, with a roster loaded with 4 and 5-star players.

All of which suggests that recruiting isn’t the panacea that it might be for other programs. Taggart has the players. He just has to #DoSomething with it.

Mullen has a unique opportunity. He just demolished Florida State at its house with the announcers repeatedly calling out Taggart for his team looking unprepared and undisciplined. If Central Florida can defeat Memphis this weekend, the Gators may get the Knights in a New Year’s 6 Bowl. Then, they open the 2019 season with Miami in Orlando.

King of the State is within reach. While the 2019 recruiting class is currently ranked 21st overall (15th in average player rating), you have to believe that the win over FSU, a potential demolition of a McKenzie Milton-less UCF and a full offseason of preparing to sweep the state may sway some kids Mullen’s way.

Florida Football is Relevant Again!

Florida’s success in 2018 isn’t just an SEC or state-wide phenomenon, as the Gators rank 10th in the Coaches Poll, 11th in the AP Poll and 9th in the College Football Playoff rankings. Yes, there are still holes to fill, but the Gators are nationally relevant once again.

Dan Mullen at the helm turned out to be exactly what the program needed. So far, he has managed to turn a poor team into a good one, a losing culture into a winning one and an anemic offense into a team that finished the year with three straight 500+ yard performances.

The galvanizing point for this team came after the loss to Missouri. At the time, Mizzou was 0-4 in the SEC, but the Tigers came to Gainesville and embarrassed the Gators. The Monday after, Josh Hammond told media that the team didn’t feel like it had much to play for after losing to Georgia and missing out on the chance to win a Championship.

After the FSU win, Mullen referenced that moment when he spoke to media. He told reporters that he told the Gators there was still so much more to play for. It shouldn’t be a surprise that was the week that he broke out his famous thumb wrestling speech.

Dan Mullen: "You wanna thumb wrestle me? I'm gonna beat your ass."

— Nick de la Torre (@delatorre) November 4, 2018

While I’m sure the message to the team was much longer and more heartfelt, the point remains the same, as does the overarching theme. In just one year, Dan Mullen restored confidence and competition to a Florida football team that was talented but doubting itself.

And don’t even get me started on how he developed Feleipe Franks into a good quarterback.

So props to Stricklin for bringing in Mullen despite the doubters. There’s no doubt now that Florida got the right man.

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