Why the stats say Florida will give LSU way more of a fight than the experts think

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Florida travels to Baton Rouge this week as 13-point underdogs to LSU.

On the surface, that makes sense. LSU’s offense has been incredible thus far in 2019. The Tigers traveled to Austin and put up 45 points in a win against Texas. Joe Burrow is in contention for the Heisman Trophy.

But is LSU really almost two touchdowns better than Florida?

Taking an in-depth look at the statistics, I don’t think you can make that case. In fact, I think there are reasons you could look at this game and think that the Gators have a good chance to pull off the upset.

That doesn’t mean Florida will win. But I do think it points towards how popular narratives drive the way we look at teams.

The Gators came out of the gate with a close win against Miami and followed that up by barely escaping on the road against Kentucky. LSU led wire-to-wire in the aforementioned win against Texas and finally showed the kind of offense that has been missing at LSU since….well, forever.

Add to that the fact that LSU is a more talented team (fifth in 247Sports 2019 roster rankings, seven 5-star recruits) compared to Florida (ranked 15th, one 5-star) and the narrative is that LSU is significantly better.

But is that really true?

2019 thus far

One way to measure teams is to look at their scoring differential. The idea is that in a five or six game sample size, you’re better off looking at how much (or how little) a team won a game by than just looking at its record.

The way LSU has been steamrolling opposing defenses, you would think the Tigers scoring differential would be way better than Florida’s. Well, you’d be wrong.

While it is true that LSU’s offense has been significantly more prolific than Florida’s, the Gators have far outperformed the Tigers on the defensive side of the ball. This is true whether you look at both teams overall scoring or if you eliminate their two cupcake games.

In fact, the Gators actually have a better expected win percentage both overall and without the cupcake games. Yes, the games against Miami and Kentucky were close, but the games against Tennessee and Auburn were not. Those games count too.

And the Gators have played the tougher schedule thus far too. According to ESPN’s FPI, Florida has the better win (#9 Auburn vs. #20 Texas). Each team has played four FBS opponents and the average FPI of LSU’s opponents has been 64.3, while Florida’s opponents average 33.5.

So the Gators have a better score differential against a tougher schedule.

Offense

LSU pretty clearly has the advantage here.

The Tigers have scored at least 42 points in every game thus far. They rank seventh in yards per play, 15th in red zone attempts per game and first in red zone scoring percentage against FBS opponents.

In fact, LSU has yet to come away without points when in the red zone. I don’t care who you’re playing, that’s really impressive.

Compared to the Maserati that is LSU’s offense, Florida’s offense looks like a Chevy. The Gators haven’t been able to run the ball at all (ranked 92nd against FBS opponents in yards per rush) and are relying on big performances from backup QB Kyle Trask. Trask has been up to the challenge thus far, posting a passer rating of 168.1, which is bordering on elite.

But LSU has Joe Burrow.

Anyone who has been with me from the start of Read and Reaction knows how much I liked Burrow as a transfer coming out of Ohio State. My rationale for liking Burrow so much was that he completed 72.3 percent of his passes for 12.8 yards per attempt his senior year in high school.

In my preview of the Auburn game last week, I cited Bo Nix’ high school completion percentage of 59.7 his senior season, as well as his 8.5 yards per attempt average as reasons to believe that his performance against Mississippi State the week prior was an anomaly. He then proceeded to complete 11 of 27 (40.7%) of his passes against the Gators.

Burrow was just average in 2018, putting up a Yards above Replacement (YAR) of 0.18. That was pretty much on-par with Feleipe Franks’ 2018 season as well.

The difference was it was Burrow’s first year starting and Franks’ second, and we all saw the jump Franks made between 2017 and 2018. Burrow has made a similar jump thus far in 2019.

Burrow only trails Tua Tagovailoa in YAR. His 3.33 is higher than Baker Mayfield’s 2017 total when he won the Heisman Trophy. Suffice it to say that Burrow is playing at a truly elite level.

But Trask hasn’t been a slouch. His average of 9.1 yards per attempt ranks 17th in the country. His YAR is significantly impacted by his proclivity to take sacks, some of which is the fault of a leaky offensive line. But a YAR of 0.54 is nothing to sneeze at, especially with the way the Gators defense has played at times.

Yet, this category belongs to LSU because of Burrow.

You can see why on this play. Not only does he make the right read, but he delivers the ball to a place where only his receiver can catch it and there is no way that the safety in the middle of the field can get over and disrupt the play.

Maybe Florida could make up the difference between the two teams if its offensive line was better than LSU’s, but that’s not the case. Using Football Outsiders advanced metrics, Florida ranks 105th in OL play in the running game and 76th in the passing game. LSU ranks 23rd in the running game and 59th against the pass.

Trask is a good player. But Burrow is playing like a transcendent one.

Advantage: LSU

Defense

Winning a road game against a big-time Power-5 opponent is always a big deal. But the Tigers win over Texas was really a lot closer than maybe it looks at first glance.

While LSU went into halftime up 20-7, it could have been a lot closer.

In the first quarter, LSU had back-to-back fourth down stops deep in its own territory. Of course, this was one of those fourth down stops.

This is a completely busted coverage and Texas just drops the ball. The stat sheet shows that LSU got the stop here, but it could have completely changed the complexion of the game. The stats say LSU has a good defense, but the film shows there may be some ways to exploit the Tigers.

When comparing the two teams, Florida’s defense ranks 18th in yards per play against FBS opponents while LSU ranks 14th. Texas is the best offense either team has faced, but Florida has faced offenses that – on average – are 10 slots better than LSU has faced.

The Gators defense played really well against Auburn, but there were still signs that a better QB than Nix could exploit some things.

Here, Marco Wilson (#3) is in man-to-man coverage with deep safety help. He gets his hips turned and it’s an easy pitch and catch for Auburn. Nix throws the ball slightly behind his receiver, which forces him to slow down and allows Wilson to catch up.

Here in the red zone, the Florida corner is playing way off the Auburn wide receiver. This should be an easy touchdown. Instead, Nix threw a worm burner and then threw the backbreaking interception to Donovan Stiner on the next play.

We haven’t seen it for a few weeks, but early on Florida was really susceptible to the jump ball.

I could have picked probably four or five examples from the Kentucky game, where Kentucky receiver Ahmad Wagner abused Florida’s secondary on jump balls. This one, in particular, jumps out to me because Wilson has the ball essentially taken away from him.

This is important against LSU because Burrow is willing to throw the ball up against single coverage.

Burrow actually gets his release impacted by the pressure here and so leaves the ball a little bit short. But because he’s throwing into single coverage, this is either going to be a catch or an incompletion. If Florida can’t get pressure with its front-four and has to blitz, Burrow is going to get a bunch of opportunities to take shots.

The other thing the Gators defense has been prone to do is to have a breakdown in coverage every once in a while.

This was a huge gain for Auburn. The Tigers then followed this up with the missed slant I showed above and an interception. Burrow likely hits this for a touchdown.

This isn’t an isolated incident.

LSU is hard enough to guard when you don’t have any major breakdowns. If Florida just leaves receivers running free, it’s going to be a long night.

But LSU isn’t without its warts on defense either.

The Tigers play a ton of man-to-man in Dave Aranda’s scheme. That means that Florida will have the same opportunities that LSU does to hit deep shots.

Because it isn’t likely to run the ball consistently, Florida is going to have to take deep shots and hit some of them. Fortunately for Florida, Kyle Trask is probably better suited to find mismatches and exploit them than Feleipe Franks was.

LSU is also susceptible to misdirection.

Here, Texas gets an explosive play by faking a screen to the wide receiver in motion and then throwing a screen back to its running back. Watch the entire LSU defense pursue towards the fake, leaving things open on the backside.

In its four games against FBS opponents, the QBs Florida has faced have a YAR of -0.41 in the 2019 season. Florida has kept those same QBs to a YAR of -1.33 in its matchups. Conversely, LSU has faced QBs with a YAR of -0.20 and has kept those QBs to a YAR of -1.35 in its matchups.

These units are really close. All things being equal, it’s hard to say one unit is better than the other.

Advantage: Push

Turnovers

So why has Florida given up so many fewer points than LSU? Turnovers and red zone scoring.

The Gators rank second in red zone scoring percentage and third in takeaways per game. LSU ranks 38th and 47th in the same categories.

This is because Florida’s defense just creates more havoc.

Even if you remove the 10 sacks against Miami (which is pretty arbitrary to do), the Gators still have three more sacks than LSU has this season. That kind of pressure leads opponents to make mistakes, which the Gators opponents have made.

The problem for Florida has been the other side of the ball. The Gators rank 129th in FBS in giveaways per game. That is why they rank 91st in red zone scoring percentage and why they rank 67th in points per game even though they are 32nd in yards per play.

LSU is slightly above average on the turnover front. The Tigers are ranked 47th both in giveaways per game and takeaways per game.

Of course, even after the four turnovers against Florida, Auburn is only ranked 76th in takeaways per game. That is a really disturbing stat for Florida fans, as it indicates that the turnovers weren’t necessarily due to Auburn being good at forcing them.

The Gators are going to have to hold onto the ball to have a chance. Normally, I’d find it hard to believe that the Gators are really that bad at taking care of the ball. After all, this is a team that ranked 28th in that category last season.

But at some point, after four turnovers against Miami, two against Kentucky, three against Tennessee and another four against Auburn, this is starting to be a trend that is getting harder to ignore.

Advantage: LSU

Coaching

I think Ed Orgeron gets a bad rap.

Nobody wins consistently at Ole Miss, and Houston Nutt won with a bunch of his recruits immediately after he left.

He took over at USC in an interim role and went 6-2 following the firing of Lane Kiffin. Considering the choices USC has made since then (Steve Sarkisian and Clay Helton), they might be wishing to have Orgeron back.

And since taking over at LSU permanently in 2017, Orgeron has a 24-7 record.

The problem is that his teams have had an average roster talent ranking of 6.5 the last two years, but LSU has finished 18th and 6th in the AP Poll. That’s not bad, but certainly not where the LSU faithful want him to be.

The issue for Orgeron is that he has lost games the last two years that he shouldn’t have. Mullen has gotten him the last two seasons, once at Mississippi State and once at Florida. In both instances, Orgeron has come into the game favored and with more total roster talent.

But Mullen wasn’t the only team to get Orgeron. There was the inexcusable loss to Troy and then the bowl loss to Notre Dame in 2017. There was the 72-74 loss to Texas A&M last season as well. And of course, there are the non-competitive losses to Alabama.

None of this says Orgeron is a bad coach. The Farmer Fran memes prevent people from taking him seriously, but I think he’s actually pretty solid.

But he’s not Dan Mullen.

Since 2017, Mullen has a 25-7 record, but one of those years was at Mississippi State. His teams have consistently been less talented but have consistently beaten Orgeron’s teams.

The game in the Swamp last year was close, but Mississippi State absolutely dismantled LSU in 2017.

LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda likes bringing heat, especially in short yardage situations.

Here, Aranda has LSU in a cover-0 look (no deep safeties). Mississippi State QB Nick Fitzgerald has to avoid the rush, but once he does he has a wide open receiver for a touchdown.

And if Mullen has watched the tape against Texas, he’s seen ways to exploit the same thing against LSU with scheme.

Because Aranda wants to bring pressure, putting five wide receivers out in the formation forces him into a cover-0 look. Texas runs a pick/rub route to get away from the man-to-man coverage and the slant goes all the way to the house.

LSU runs a ton of man-to-man. Mullen is going to have an answer for it if Trask has enough time to exploit it. I’ve yet to watch an LSU game and say the same thing about the Tigers, either offensively or defensively.

Advantage: Florida

Takeaway

On the road, with a big disadvantage at QB and the offensive line, this one is going to be a tall task for Florida.

It really comes down to how much you trust Trask, how much you trust Burrow, how much you trust Orgeron and how much you trust Mullen.

On the field, I trust Mullen completely. But I don’t trust that Trask is going to get the ball out quick enough or hold onto the ball when there is a breakdown on the offensive line.

But I don’t trust Orgeron, particularly if the offense gets punched in the mouth early and struggles. Will he go back into his conservative shell if things aren’t working or will he trust Burrow to sling it no matter what?

I still go back to the point differential I brought up in the first section. Based on point scored and points allowed, Florida has been a better team this year against tougher opponents. That means there is no way I think LSU covers a 13-point spread.

The question then, is whether I think that point differential and Mullen overcomes the advantage of the game being in Baton Rouge.

I know I just said in my Auburn recap that I think Mullen is a wizard. And I know that the Gators have been peaking recently, looking far more dominant with Trask at QB.

But this is also Trask’s first true road test and he’s going to have to outplay a Heisman Trophy candidate.

I think Mullen and Grantham bring a game plan that makes LSU struggle on offense like it hasn’t so far this year. I think the offense hits some big plays to keep it in the game. I think Gator fans go to bed Saturday night proud of their team and secure that Florida has a good chance to unseat Georgia in two weeks.

But in the end, I don’t think the Gators have quite enough in this one.

LSU (-13) wins, 23-21.

Picks this year: 6-0, 3-2-1 ATS

Featured image used under Creative Commons license courtesy Tammy Anthony Baker