The Power – and the Risk – of the Transfer Portal

National signing day could have gone better for the Gators.

Safety Avantae Williams (44th nationally) decided to commit to Miami rather than Florida. As expected, neither Jahmyr Gibbs (75th) or Sedrick Van Pran (59th) flipped from Georgia Tech or Georgia. That meant that the Gators – who came into signing day as the eighth-ranked team – left it with the same ranking after failing to land another top-100 recruit.

That doesn’t mean it was all a loss for Florida. The Gators did secure the commitment from defensive end Princely Umanmielen (241st nationally) and received signed letters of intent from Xzavier Henderson (66th).

Still, it felt a bit anticlimactic for the Gators to miss on Williams while Georgia signed Broderick Jones (11), Van Pran (59), Daijun Edwards (279), Daran Branch (671), Ladd McConkey (1158), and Cameron Kinnie (1626).

Yet, this class still sets the Gators up pretty well into the future, especially when you factor in transfers. So let’s take a closer look at how Florida is using the transfer portal, and the potential risks and rewards associated with that tactic.

The Rewards

In 2018, Dan Mullen brought in transfers Van Jefferson and Trevon Grimes to bolster a wide receiver corps that had plenty of talent but had, to that point, underachieved. He also brought in defensive tackle Adam Shuler to bolster the defensive line. Those transfers worked out pretty well.

In 2019, Mullen brought in defensive end transfer Jonathan Greenard. After 10 sacks and 16 tackles for loss this past season, again, I’d say that worked out pretty well.

Now for the 2020 season, Mullen has brought in transfers Brenton Cox, Lorenzo Lingard, Justin Shorter and Jordan Pouncey. It’s unclear if all of them will be eligible to play in 2020 (Cox definitely will), but these are highly talented players who are going to make the team better moving forward.

Each of these players plugs a hole. Cox plugs the immediate hole left by Greenard’s departure. Lingard makes up for Florida missing on 5-star Demarkcus Bowman among other running back recruits. Shorter and Pouncey will help mitigate the departures of Jefferson, Tyrie Cleveland, Josh Hammond and Freddie Swain.

There’s no doubt that Florida is a more talented team due to the addition of these transfers than it would have been without. There’s also no doubt that Mullen has hit on all of the transfers he’s brought into Gainesville thus far.

Last season, Florida ranked 15th on 247Sports Roster Composite rankings. This ranking adds up all of the players actually on the roster according to their rankings, and the Gators had one 5-star (Cox), 38 4-stars and 35 3-stars on its roster.

Due to graduation, transfer or entry into the draft, UF currently is set to lose 16 players, 10 of whom were 3-star recruits. Now, some of those 3-stars were guys like David Reese and Lamical Perine so we shouldn’t just dismiss those losses, but the fact remains that the average 247Sports ranking of the departing players is 88.2.

This is a difficult exercise because Florida likely will have some attrition that you just can’t predict at this point. But the Gators are bringing in one 5-star, seventeen 4-stars and six 3-stars to its roster. If you subtract the players leaving above and add that level of talent plus the transfers, it takes Florida to four 5-stars, 49 4-stars and 31 3-stars.

USC was rated the fourth most talented team with six 5-stars, 41 4-stars and 31 3-stars last year. The Gators aren’t too far off from being at an elite talent level.

More likely, Florida is going to jump to 7th or 8th in the overall rankings. But for a staff that has taken teams with top-15 talent to two top-7 finishes in the AP Poll, it’ll be exciting to see what they can do with that bump in talent.

Counting transfers to a specific class

I think you can add the transfers to examine Florida’s 2020 talent level as I did above. But I’ve also had a bunch of fans tell me that I should factor it into Florida’s 2020 class ranking, and that it would compare favorably to Georgia if I did.

There are a few issues with that. The first is that Cox actually counts against the 2019 class, as he arrived in Gainesville during the fall. The other problem is that it’s completely unclear whether Lingard or Shorter are going to have to sit out the 2020 season. Certainly they may have excellent cases for a waiver from the NCAA, but that organization isn’t exactly known for its consistency.

But let’s just say that we do count all three of those players into the 2020 class. The addition of players ranked 8th (Shorter), 23rd (Cox) and 25th (Lingard) to this class raises the Gators point total up to 297.47. That’s excellent, but still would have only been good enough for fifth in the nation and fourth in the SEC.

Georgia is bringing in 11 top-100 players in the 2020 class. Florida is bringing in seven, even if you count the three transfers. And if we go back to the overall roster rankings, Georgia had 14 5-stars, 47 4-stars and 24 3-stars on its roster in 2019. Kirby Smart then added a class with four 5-stars, 15 4-stars and six 3-stars.

So no, Mullen is not “evening the playing field” with Georgia through the portal. Don’t get me wrong, I’m thrilled he’s bringing in high-level talent to compete with the Bulldogs and the rest of the conference. But to insinuate that adding the transfers to the mix paints a different picture just isn’t true.

Georgia has certainly shown that there is more to a winning team than just talent alone, including knowing what defense to call on second-and-26 and not to call fake punts on fourth-and-11 from midfield.

And Mullen is certainly improving the talent profile of the Gators overall. But there are definitive tiers to talent level both nationally and in the SEC. Florida has made it up a tier or two with the addition of the transfers.

But it isn’t in the top tier yet.

The Risk

Have you ever bought something on zero-percent interest for 12-months with every intention of paying the item off, only to find that you don’t have the money when the bill comes due? Ever think about taking out a zero-percent credit card to cover it to give yourself more time?

I fear that might be what Florida fans are getting with the way Mullen is using the transfer portal.

As I’ve mentioned previously, most coaches see a dip in their third-year. Urban Meyer saw one. Steve Spurrier saw one. Even Nick Saban saw one at LSU (neither Meyer nor Saban saw it at Ohio State or Alabama).

Oftentimes, that correlates with a poor initial recruiting class. As the coach transitions into his new role, he has less time to build relationships, vet out players and how they fit and change perceptions of a program that was struggling before he took over.

On paper, Mullen actually had a very good 2018 transition recruiting class (14th nationally). But that class has taken the normal, expected hits that initial classes take with the departures of Justin Watkins (disciplinary), Lucas Krull (transfer), Malik Langham (transfer), Noah Banks (injury), John Huggins (disciplinary), Chris Bleich (transfer) and Randy Russell (health).

That class only had 20 signees, meaning that there are only 13 players left on the roster from that class, 14 if you count Trevon Grimes. Fortunately for the Gators, many of those players have already contributed significantly.

As I said, that kind of attrition is expected in a transition class. What isn’t expected is the level of attrition Florida had in Mullen’s second class. That class has already seen the departures or non-arrivals of Chris Steele (transfer), Jalon Jones (disciplinary), Diwun Black (Juco), Deyavie Hammond (Juco), Wardrick Wilson (Visa) and Arjei Henderson (FCS). Wilson and Black may still be Gators, but they’ve certainly lost development time.

What that means is that Florida only has 19 players left on its roster from that class and 33 from the last two.

That is why Mullen has had to hit the transfer portal so heavily.

Now, certainly it’s fantastic that the players he’s adding are more talented than the players he’s replacing, but it still does raise a concern. Let’s say Lingard, Cox and Shorter all do become eligible and do play lights-out in 2020. That means they likely are going to go the NFL.

So how do you replace them?

Well, counting those two transfers plus Jordan Pouncey (remember, Cox counts to 2019) means Florida is using either 24 or 25 initial counters for its 2020 class. The reason the Gators can bring in more than 25 players in this class is that some of the early enrollees are getting counted back to the 2019 class, but the number of transfers ensures that Florida won’t have much wiggle room next year.

You see, each program gets 25 initial counters every season, so long as it doesn’t exceed its 85 scholarship limit. That means some attrition is expected and acceptable, as you’d need 100 scholarships if everyone stayed.

But because of the way the roster is constructed, Florida is at a real risk for a mass exodus following the 2020 season.

On offense, expected starters Kyle Trask, Trevon Grimes, Kadarius Toney, Stone Forsythe and Brett Heggie will be seniors. With good seasons, Dameon Pierce and Kyle Pitts likely declare for the draft.

On defense, Tedarrell Slaton, Zachary Carter, Ventrell Miller, Shawn Davis and Donovan Stiner are seniors. Marco Wilson and Brenton Cox likely declare for the draft as well.

That means Florida is at real risk of having to replace 14 players and maybe more if Shorter and Lingard are involved.

The problem with that is that there are limited players to pull from in the 2018 and 2019 classes due to the attrition I noted above. That means Mullen will have to go back to the transfer portal.

Except this time, he won’t have the ability to sign a full 25-man class and bring in multiple transfers. Instead, he’ll have to choose between using his initial counters on high school recruits who may take some time to develop or transfers who can help right away.

He already has made that decision for the 2020 season, deciding to go with the transfers. It was an easy one because he had the counters to pull it off. That likely will be enough to keep him from experiencing the growing pains a lot of coaches’ experience in their third year. And he could maybe extend bringing in talent that way for one more year without seeing any true harm.

But just like the zero percent interest metaphor I gave above, eventually the bill comes due. At some point, high school recruits will need to be the difference makers, not just supplementing the star transfers.

I’ve been assured that Mullen is better at developing talent than any other coach out there. Last offseason I looked into that and actually found some pretty compelling evidence that he is.

But he’s going to have to be.

Otherwise, a significant step back may be in store for the Gators in 2021 or 2022.

Takeaway

Let’s be honest, when a 5-star recruit asks to join your team, you welcome him with open arms whether he’s a transfer or a high schooler.

I suspect Mullen would not have relied so heavily on the portal if he wasn’t getting unbelievably talented players. I also suspect that he knows he’s going to have to get his young players from the 2020 class a ton of playing time in 2020.

Luckily for Florida, they have the opportunity to do just that as the schedule is about as easy as an SEC schedule can be.

But this is also the year to take the SEC East.

Georgia and LSU – the only teams who will be ranked on Florida’s schedule coming into the year – both have to break-in new quarterbacks. The Bulldogs also have to replace nine starters on offense. LSU has 16 (!) players from its championship team who were invited to the NFL combine.

So again Mullen is faced with a choice. Do you get a bunch of true freshmen playing time that they need? Or do you narrow your player usage to make sure you prepare your core and give your team the best shot at winning the championship?

Much like the transfer question, this one is probably dictated by the team’s circumstances. Getting Anthony Richardson on the field in a blowout against Eastern Washington makes a lot of sense. Giving true freshman Rashad Torrence a series or two at safety against LSU may not.

But whether the strategy of relying on transfers pays off or not will really depend on one truth. Flags fly forever.

Nobody in Gainesville cares that the 2007 team went 9-3 because it was sandwiched between two national championships. Even the ugly loss to Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl following the 1995 season is all part of the narrative towards beating FSU in the Sugar Bowl the next season to win Florida’s first championship.

Brenton Cox, Lorenzo Lingard and Justin Shorter give Florida a better shot at winning a chip. It’s a much higher leverage strategy than recruiting at the high school level like Nick Saban or Kirby Smart, and if Florida doesn’t get the job done in the next two years, it could have significant downside.

But there’s a reason that prognosticators are already choosing Florida to represent the SEC in the playoff next year.

It’s because the program Dan Mullen is building – with the addition of these talented transfers – has a ton of upside as well.

Featured image used under Creative Commons license courtesy GoArmyPhotos