Kyle Trask and the Next Step
Improvements so Florida can win the SEC East

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Kyle Trask was one of the primary reasons that Florida went 11-2 in 2019.

Between rescuing the team after coming in for an injured Feleipe Franks against Kentucky to having Florida in a position to tie the game at 35 in the fourth quarter against LSU, Gators fans got more than they ever could have imagined out of Trask coming into the season. His passer rating of 156.1 ranked 16th in the country, and his completion percentage (66.9) ranked 13th.

So why is there so much noise from Gators fans to see what Emory Jones can do?

Well, my yards above replacement (YAR) metric tells a little bit different story, with Trask placing just slightly above average (YAR = 0.09). That’s because his 8.3 yards per attempt were only slightly more than the 2019 average (7.75) and he added negative value in the running game (63 attempts for 8 yards).

Still, it’s hard to ignore that when pressed into action, Trask led the Gators to wins. With a relatively easy schedule, the expectation is that he’ll lead the Gators to bigger and better things in 2020.

So where does he need to improve to make that happen?

The Burrow Comparison

Anyone who’s read my writing knows that I loved Joe Burrow as a transfer out of Ohio State.

The reason was simple. Burrow had a really high completion percentage in high school over multiple years and I believe that indicates a QB who knows how to read a defense. It looked like I would be wrong after Burrow had an up-and-down debut season in 2018, but obviously that prediction looked pretty good in 2019.

The reason I bring up Burrow is that Kyle Trask had a really high completion percentage in high school, albeit in limited time. Then, Trask went out in his first year starting and that completion percentage translated on the field for the Gators.

So should we expect a massive jump in performance between year one and two like LSU just saw with Burrow?

Well……no.

The disappointing – and surprising – thing for me about Burrow in 2018 was how inaccurate he was. He only completed 57.8 percent of his passes and had only one game above 57.1 percent in his first nine. But he then finished the season completing 67 percent of his passes over the last four games.

But the other thing is that his jump in accuracy came with another jump as well. His yards per completion in the first nine games was 12.5. It jumped to 14.4 in his last four. So not only was he much more accurate, but he was more accurate further down the field.

The same jump is not nearly as visible for Trask. In his first eight games – which included Auburn, LSU and Georgia – he averaged 12.2 yards per completion. In his final four games (Vandy, Missouri, FSU and Virginia), he averaged 12.7.

It is still an increase, but not remotely in the same league.

The other thing is that Trask completed 67 percent of his passes in the first eight games and 67 percent in the final four. That’s a really good completion percentage, but the reason that Burrow got so much better was that he got more accurate and threw the ball downfield more successfully.

That’s the real reason that a Burrow-like leap isn’t likely in the cards for Trask. There just isn’t anywhere to go.

Even if he improves his completion percentage considerably – let’s say up to 73 percent – while maintaining his yards per completion at 12.4, that still only lifts his YAR up to 0.73. That’s closer to the performances of Nebraska’s Adrian Martinez or Penn State’s Sean Clifford than Burrow or Tua.

Of course, Penn State still won a bunch of games last year. Trask doesn’t have to be – and shouldn’t be expected – to progress like Burrow. Small improvements in a few places could really make a big difference in 2020.

The QB Running Game

This is the one place where the Emory Jones supporters should get their wish.

Jones was used sporadically in 2019 and often just ran the ball. He was effective doing it as well, rushing for 6.1 yards per attempt (on 42 carries). If you add Jones’ stats to Trask’s line, Gators QBs had a YAR of 0.31 in 2019, indicating that Jones’ use did bring value to the team and that he was more efficient than Trask in his limited time.

But one thing we shouldn’t overlook is the game against Virginia. In the Orange Bowl, Trask ran for 37 yards on 8 carries. That was his most yards rushing in the entire year and came after a month off following the regular season.

It’s easy to forget looking back, but Trask went down with what looked like a gruesome knee injury against Auburn. He was able to come back into that game and didn’t miss any additional time, but anyone who’s sprained their knee knows that running at SEC defensive linemen isn’t on the top of the wish list as you heal.

The yardage is less important than what Trask can accomplish by being an effective runner. Everyone remembers the fourth-and-1 pass on the opening drive against Georgia that fell incomplete to Kyle Pitts. Lots of fans asked why Mullen didn’t run the ball on that play, but this play on second down is the reason.

Trask has to pull this ball from Perine. The defensive end crashes and catches Perine from behind. The entire point of leaving him unblocked is for Trask to occupy him. If he crashes, Trask needs to keep the ball and run for the first down.

Trask did that against Virginia, pulling the ball when necessary.

Here, the Cavaliers’ defensive end crashed down the line. Trask then scoots inside before the defensive back can get him and puts his head down to get a first down.

If Trask can average just 3.0 yards per rush (he averaged 4.6 vs. the Cavaliers) and Florida gets exactly what they got from him in the passing game last season, his season YAR would be 0.52, or solidly above average.

Add Jones’ contributions from 2019 to that total and you’re starting to approach elite-level status.

Improvements in the Passing Game

Of course, to be truly elite, Trask is going to have to improve in the passing game.

As mentioned previously, he likely isn’t going to do that with accuracy. Instead, he’s going to have to be more efficient when going downfield. And that may be a problem.

If you don’t know about it yet, check out www.secstatcat.com and go waste hours of your life. It’s a nerd’s dream with sortable stats for QBs that allows you to quickly look at how Trask played in lots of different situations.

Not counting South Carolina – since it was played in a downpour – Trask only had three games with a negative YAR: Auburn, Georgia and Missouri. What we see when comparing to the season overall tells us some interesting things.

What we see is that the amount that Trask went downfield overall remained relatively constant, as he threw 20+ yards downfield 10 percent of the time and between 10-20 yards 27 percent for the season vs. 11 and 25 percent in the three poor performances.

But the interesting thing is how those numbers changed when I split them into being inside the numbers or from the numbers outside. For the season, Trask threw deep (20+ yards) down the middle of the field 5 percent of the time, but didn’t make one deep attempt in his poor performances.

However, he went deep outside the numbers 22 percent of the time in his poor performances versus 16 percent during the season. It appears as though the defense was forcing him to throw deep and to the outside.

When I go back and look at the Georgia film, the Bulldogs gave Trask a heavy dose of zone.

This is a completion and a really good throw by Trask. He’s pressured early and can’t put a ton on the throw, but it is perfectly placed over the corner and under the safety for a completion on the sideline. This is a win for Florida, but Trask had to make a perfect throw. Had he been a tick later or been off on his throw, this would have been a backbreaking interception.

And accuracy outside – particularly deep – seems to be an issue for Trask. For the season he completed 34.6 percent of his passes outside the numbers that were 20+ yards. That jumped to 50 percent when inside the numbers.

This isn’t a cover-2 by Georgia but it is certainly a zone shell. Trask has Lucas Krull wide open on the outside and a clean pocket and just airmails him. This is actually the conundrum with Trask. He read the play perfectly and threw to the right receiver. He just couldn’t complete the throw.

Note that there were over seven minutes left in the game. This was the drive that took nearly seven minutes off the clock in the fourth quarter – time that Florida could have certainly used when Georgia was able to run out the clock. Hitting these types of throws would improve Florida’s ability to strike quickly and stretch the field.

One thing that the stats don’t tell us is what hash the QB was throwing from. Rewatching the Georgia game, it did appear that Trask struggles somewhat when asked to throw to the outside from the opposite hash.

This throw is dropped by tight end Kyle Pitts. But it’s also thrown behind him. Had Trask hit him in stride, it would have been a big gain as the outside receivers were both running vertical routes. When you get Kyle Pitts on a linebacker one-on-one in space, it should be a pitch-and-catch first down. Misses like this are why Florida’s offense felt inconsistent that day.

To me, the key stat in Trask’s poor performances is that on throws completed behind the line of scrimmage, his average per attempt was 4.5 vs. 8.1 overall for the season. Combine that with the difference in his inside/outside splits going deep and it’s pretty clear that the defenses were squeezing him short while daring him to throw outside.

The problem is that these are arm-strength related issues and are going to be difficult to improve significantly. That means there’s really only one way to see this improve in 2020.

Running Game Improvements

This is straight from Urban Meyer’s Ohio State playbook, a playbook that he developed with Dan Mullen as his offensive coordinator.

“Run Game Designed to Force Defense into 1 Hi/No Deep Structure. Pass Game Designed to Beat 1 Hi and No Deep”

The Gator’s playbook is specifically designed to take advantage of cover-1 or cover-0 schemes through the air. When a defense is forced to bring up a safety, the QB has to make them pay.

But the problem is that when you can’t run the ball, the defense can sit with two deep safeties, making it much more difficult to throw. It also allows linebackers to fill gaps against the passing game they normally wouldn’t because of their run responsibilities.

Remember how much Trask seemed to struggle against the Virginia’s tall linebackers? Part of that was that they weren’t really giving the running game much respect, at least early.

Against Auburn, Florida ran for 132 yards on 33 carries, but that is boosted by Lamical Perine’s 88-yard run to put the game away. The Gators rushed 19 times for 21 yards against Georgia and 26 times for 56 yards against Missouri.

It’s not a coincidence that Trask had his poor performances against those three. When the Gators couldn’t run the ball at all – and the defense forced him to throw deep outside – he struggled.

I should be fair and say that all but the most special QBs will struggle in this situation. With no running game and playing against an elite defense like Georgia, Trask was playing with one hand tied behind his back.

The first place to look then for improvement is the offensive line. The Gators OL played really poorly in 2019. Football Outsiders keeps advanced OL statistics and had the Gators ranked 90th or below in four out of its five running game stats.

Next is the running backs. While Lamical Perine was beloved and made some big plays, he wasn’t someone who could get hit in the backfield and often turn the play into a four-yard gain. Dameon Pierce showed that ability in 2019 and has the opportunity to take over as the starter in 2020.

And in 2017 when the offensive line was also struggling, a young Malik Davis averaged 6.7 yards per rush. Davis has been unable to stay healthy in his time in Gainesville – and struggled to get on the field last season even when he was – but he has some big-play ability that could help the Gators offense move.

And then there’s Lorenzo Lingard and potentially Zach Evans. Lingard was a track star in high school, and if you believe Miami propaganda, put up a 4.27 40-time last offseason. 40-times are often exaggerated, but there’s no doubt Lingard is blazing fast.

Evans has recently become a Gator lean in a really weird recruitment, but at 5’11” and 200 lbs has the size as well as the speed (4.51 40-time at The Opening) to keep the chains moving or take it to the house.

Takeaway

It’s extremely unlikely that Kyle Trask is going to take a step forward in 2020 like Joe Burrow did in 2019.

What Burrow did doesn’t have any sort of historical precedent and to expect it two years in a row is a fool’s errand. But Burrow also showed the improvement late in 2018 that he would show in 2019. Trask did not show that at the end of 2019.

But Trask doesn’t have to be Joe Burrow to be a more efficient and effective QB.

If he can run the ball more efficiently than he did in 2019, he’ll be able to help Florida convert some of those third-and-shorts that they couldn’t last season. If he can help incorporate Emory Jones into the running game a little bit more, he’ll find himself in more second-and-short situations where he can take a shot.

But at some point – likely against LSU and Georgia – Trask is going to get squeezed again. The running game is going to struggle. The offensive line won’t be able to get a push against a superior defensive line. And Trask is going to have to complete passes that he didn’t in 2019.

Whether he can do so will determine whether Florida wins the SEC East or plays another overmatched ACC team in a New Year’s Six Bowl.

Featured image used under Creative Commons license courtesy Photo-Gator