Recruiting: Why Palmetto Matters to Dan Mullen and Gator football

If you’ve been anywhere near a Gator recruiting conversation lately, you’ve probably heard the buzz about UF’s effort to land the “Palmetto guys” from Miami, Florida.

Generally this refers to five high school teammates (all with power-5 scholarship offers) from Dade County’s Palmetto High. The real hype however, is emanating from UF’s pursuit of the three highest-rated prospects at the school. Those three: 5-star DT Leonard Taylor, 5-star CB Jason Marshall, and 4-star S prospect Corey Collier are each ranked among the top-3 nationally at their respective positions.

Each of the three is considering an August commitment and all three have listed UF as a finalist. With their announcements rapidly approaching, excitement (and angst) over UF’s chances to land the three is reaching a fever pitch.

But are these guys as important as fans claim? Is the hype justified? Or is Covid-19 driving us to overhype every bit of Gator news we can consume?

Well, with respect to the uncertain nature of recruiting (and my own Coronavirus induced stir-craziness), this author is here to tell you that the upcoming Palmetto announcements could be pivotal for Gator football. As we dive into the facts below, I intend to lay out three distinct reasons why an August sweep at Palmetto could be game-changing for both Dan Mullen and the trajectory of the program.

Before we get started however, let’s briefly profile each of the “Palmetto guys” to give you some context:

DT Leonard Taylor – A composite 5-star and ranked as the nation’s #3 defensive tackle prospect, Taylor is scheduled to commit to either Miami or UF on August 6.

CB Jason Marshall – Another composite 5-star and the nation’s #2 cornerback prospect, Marshall is on the receiving end of a full court press from Alabama, Miami, and UF. There has been talk of an early August commitment, but that could change.

S Corey Collier – The composite 4-star is ranked as the nation’s #3 safety prospect and has UF, LSU, and Miami in his group of finalists. Currently, he is scheduled to announce his commitment on August 11.

DT Savion Collins – Composite 4-star Collins is the ranked as the 15th best defensive tackle prospect nationally. While he is currently committed to Miami, rumors of a possible flip to UF have persisted.

WR Brashard Smith – A composite 3-star, Smith is a former UF commit who backed off his pledge this may. At present, most of the buzz suggests he’ll eventually sign with Miami. UPDATE: After this article was submitted for publication, Smith committed to Miami.

Now buckle up, because here come the facts…

It’s about finally kicking the door open

When it comes to producing football talent, it’s not exactly a secret that south Florida, and more specifically Dade County, is as good as it gets.

The NFL for example, recently announced that there are more players from Miami in the League than from any other city in the country. Even more impressive is that the city’s NFL ranks total almost a third more than second place Houston, Texas.

Unsurprisingly, athletes from “The 305” are just as prevalent on college football prospect ranking lists as they are NFL rosters. From year to year, about 18% of Florida’s top-50 prospects in the 247 Composite are from Dade County. This means that out of the top-50 prospects from the best talent-producing state in the country, about 9 are typically from the single county.

Over the past two decades however, UF’s effort to pry elite recruits from Dade County has been about as successful as that time UCLA hired Chip Kelly as head football coach (…can I get a “thank you Lord!”?).

I know it might not seem that way, but consider the fact that over the past 19 recruiting classes (Composite Recruiting records generally go back to 2002), UF has never signed a 5-star recruit from a Dade County high school. Think that’s too high a standard? Well, in that same near-2-decade span, the Gators have only signed a single prospect ranked among the national top-100 from Dade County. That was Xzavier Henderson in the class of 2020.

While UF has signed many prospects from Miami over the years, they typically haven’t been top-rated recruits coveted by the best programs.

Of the 34 Dade athletes who signed with the Orange and Blue since 2002, their average recruit rating is 87.46 in the composite. For comparison, consider that Gator recruits from neighboring talent hotbed Broward County, where the Gators have made significant inroads over the years, have an average rating of 90.85. Essentially, that means the average Dade county Gator prospect is a 3-star ranked just inside the national top-500, while the average Broward signee has been a 4-star just inside the national top-250. That’s a huge disparity.

Now, I fully understand why some may counter that Miami area players simply out-perform their recruiting rankings. And while I’d be very interested in reading data that supports this idea, it simply hasn’t been the case for those Miami-area players at UF.

As you can see in the chart below, UF’s 3-stars have typically made post-season AP All-SEC teams about 4% of the time AT UF. If the recruiting rankings matter less for Dade County prospects, then we should expect their All-SEC success rate at UF to exceed the overall average.

(Bill Sikes/Read and Reaction)

Except it doesn’t. Of the 34 Miami prospects signed by UF, CJ Henderson was the only non-kicker prospect to eventually become an AP All-SEC player at UF. That means that they had a 3% success rate (or 6% if you include the illustrious Eddy Pineiro, but I didn’t include kickers in the overall list either).

What about the area’s 5-star talent though, like current recruits Taylor and Marshall? Should we really expect them to pan out more often at an all-conference level?

Well, of the 15 Dade County 5-stars of the composite rankings era, 6 went on to all-conference awards at their respective schools.  This means that the all-conference success rate for the county’s 5-star prospects (40%) is almost exactly what it has been for 5-stars overall at UF (41%). More importantly, it’s almost exactly equal in its disproportion when compared to the success rate of the aforementioned 3-star prospects.

This is representative of why the Big-3 at Palmetto provide Dan Mullen with a golden opportunity. It’s not just that Mullen can become the first Gator coach to ever sign a Dade County 5-star. It’s not just that he could sign the first multiple 5-star UF class since 2015. It’s not just that the Big-3 would group with Xzavier Henderson to give Mullen the four highest-rated Dade County signees in UF history.

In the short term, it’s that he would likely be adding at least one All-SEC caliber player to his roster. In the long term, he’d be kicking the door open to the nation’s most fertile recruiting ground at a level that the program has never before enjoyed.

Both would be huge for the program, but there’s even more at play here…

It’s about playing defense

As exciting as it would be for Mullen to make history in Dade county, it would only serve as a single needed step in reversing an ugly trend in Florida. Specifically, I’m referring to the fact that elite in-state prospects have increasingly chosen to sign with out of state programs at the direct expense of UF (FSU & Miami have also endured this decline).

Consider that in the decade between 2002-2011, UF signed an average of about 3 of Florida’s top-10 per year. In the 9 recruiting cycles since, they’ve seen the yearly average drop to 0.72 annually.

Bill Sikes/Read and Reaction

Concurrently, out of state programs saw their average annual share of Florida’s top-10 rise from a collective 2.9 per year (between 2002-2011) to 5.4 annually (between 2012-2020). So, at the same time UF saw their average annual take of Florida’s top-10 drop by 76%, the out of state powers (mostly Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, and Ohio State) saw their take rise by 86%.

That’s a seismic shift in the power structure of Florida’s in-state recruiting picture.

To understand the relevance of this issue to the Palmetto prospects, let’s take a look at the current Composite rankings for the top-10 recruits in the state of Florida (out of state IMG transfers have been omitted, as always):

Bill Sikes/Read and Reaction

As you can see, out of state programs already have commitments from half the in-state top-10, while UF has none.  By successfully landing commitments from the Big-3 at Palmetto, Mullen would secure his only readily apparent shot at landing two in-state top-10 recruits.

This wouldn’t break ground over recent history (the total has been achieved four times by three UF coaches since 2013), but a slight ranking elevation by Collier (currently ranked just outside the adjusted top-10 at #11) could give UF three in-state top-10 recruits for the first time since Urban Meyer’s national #1 class in 2010.

Of equal importance however, is avoiding the consequences of missing out on both Palmetto 5-stars.

If Taylor were to commit to Miami and Marshall were to choose Alabama, UF could face being shut out of the in-state top-10 for the second time in Mullen’s tenure (and just the third time ever). Missing out on Marshall or Taylor could also position Alabama to land half the in-state top-10 (they are rumored to be leading for Xavian Sorey as well).

If this happens, UF could end up as the only Big-3 Florida school without a top-10 in-state recruit. Also, while Miami hasn’t recruited well in recent years, such a scenario could build some south Florida momentum for Manny Diaz on the trail as he enjoys the program’s first multiple 5-star class since 2012.

In view of these stakes, it’s clear that the Palmetto guys are just as important to Mullen’s defense of the state as they are in his offensive efforts to claim new territory.  By signing each of the Big-3 he can make a single, but important step in stopping the in-state bleeding. Simultaneously, he can take a step to prevent Miami from impeding UF’s efforts toward recruiting progress.

Which brings us to our third reason that the Palmetto crew could matter so much…

It’s about showing progress

Please allow me to be blunt here:  The Big-3 at Palmetto may prove to be truly indispensable if we’re looking for quantifiable evidence of recruiting improvement within UF’s 2021 class.

Consider that at present, the class includes 22 commits and ranks 10th nationally (4th in the SEC). The average recruit rating of 89.23 ranks about 15th nationally and the Gators have more commitments than all but one team in the current top-20, indicating that their ranking is being partially buoyed by quantity rather than quality.

As such, UF will need to finish with high quality recruits down the stretch to rise in the rankings (or even prevent a fall) as other teams fill out their classes.

Now, let’s explore how the Palmetto guys specifically impact these numbers. Check out the chart below for a comparison of how each combination of the three additions would impact UF’s class score (at the time of writing):

Bill Sikes/Read and Reaction

As you can see, adding each of the three primary Palmetto targets would typically position UF’s class for a #10 ranking in recent years. Adding only Marshall and Collier would generally position them for 13th and only adding Collier would barely keep them in the top-20.

But let’s be very clear: UF isn’t finishing at 20th and they are likely to add other prospects, regardless of the Palmetto outcomes. The important takeaway is understanding that these three are arguably the highest-ranked uncommitted prospects remaining on UF’s board and they will serve as the foundation for the rest of the class. As such, unless something changes, Palmetto’s Big 3 represent UF’s biggest potential for upward class ranking mobility.

As evidence, let’s say that apart from Palmetto, UF manages a likely best-possible finish of top-100 DE Tunmise Adeleye (currently committed to Ohio State), top-100 WR Deion Colzie, and DT Desmond Watson. Then let’s say UF loses 2 much-lower rated 4-star prospects (I chose 2 who have been rumored as possibilities to exit). By also adding each of the Big-3 at Palmetto, UF’s 26-man class would sit at a score of 279.49, good for 8th nationally last year.

Regarding progress in this scenario, we could point to the following:

• Mullen’s highest-scoring class ever
• Winning at least 4 or 5 major prospect battles (Taylor, Marshall, Colzie, Adeleye, Collier) over big-time programs in a single recruiting class under Mullen. A first in his tenure.
• Finally breaking into IMG Academy for a big-time recruit, who happens to be in the Florida top-10.
• Signing of three of the FL top-10 (unadjusted for IMG).
• Landing two of the Florida top-5 for the first time since 2015 and only the second time since 2009.
• Landing UF’s first multiple 5-star class since 2015 and the first back-to-back classes with 5-stars since 2014-2015.
• All the Miami area milestones discussed earlier in this article.

The class ranking might not be much better than in the recent past, but those are marks of a real step forward. The problem is that removing just one of the Palmetto 5-stars (let alone two) from the equation changes this outlook dramatically.

If for example Leonard Taylor were to choose Miami, then UF backfilled the spot with Palmetto 4-star DT Savion Collins, the class score would fall to 273.07. That score typically finishes around 9th place, just like Mullen’s last two classes at UF.

More importantly, it would negate at least half the bullet-pointed items of progress above and appear that his Dade County achievements were necessary to merely tread water in the bigger picture. That’s not to say that landing Collier and one of the Palmetto 5-stars wouldn’t be a big deal. It absolutely would be.

But without a Palmetto sweep, the ceiling for this class probably looks a lot more like 2019 and 2020 than some might want to admit. And again, that’s assuming a big-time finish apart from the Palmetto prospects.

Turning back to the bigger picture, I mentioned at the onset of this article that Palmetto’s Big 3 could prove to be pivotal for Gator football. They represent historic potential recruiting gains in Dade County, a significant potential defense of state borders, and a potential platform for quantifiable recruiting progress. But the key word at each point is “potential”.

I think I’ll just leave it at that…

Disclaimers:

• I used the 247 Composite Rankings as the basis for all my recruit ratings and rankings. Corey Collier is a 5-star on Rivals and that’s awesome. My omission of this fact was an attempt at consistency, not negativity.
• Yes, I adjust my Florida recruit rankings to remove out of state IMG Academy Transfers.
• Recruiting cycles are always a roller coaster ride that takes unexpected turns along the way, for better and worse. Despite my best efforts to be contextually accurate, this cycle could get weird fast. It’s hard to say how Covid-19 could impact things. Even if it doesn’t, rating fluctuations or other big-time surprises are always possible. Let’s hope they all go Florida’s way!
• Go Gators.