Gators open against the Lane Train, Dawgs tangle with the Hogs, and Coach O opens his title defense against Leach
Saturday, September 26
The SEC is back!
I’m a huge fan of college football in general – but after two straight weeks of being fully invested in great comebacks by and against the Tulane Green Wave, I’m pretty fired up to watch some SEC football.
Don’t get me wrong, it was great watching Florida State and Georgia Tech play in between the lightning delay, five turnovers, and three blocked kicks. The next time someone complains about the “SEC bias” in the media, just point to these last three weekends of SEC-less college football, flip on the FSU-Georgia Tech game, and tell them to enjoy.
Will Miles is excited for some SEC football:
Real football. Real football. Real football. Real football!!!! https://t.co/UTVj7B0sQJ
— Will Miles (@WillMilesSEC) September 21, 2020
I figured Will would’ve saved this tweet for when the SEC and the Big Ten return since you can rarely get him to stop talking about his love for all things Big Ten.
#5 FLORIDA -14.0 (-110) AT OLE MISS
Moneyline: Florida (-570) / Ole Miss (+385)
Total: Over Over 57.0 (-110) / Under 57.0 (-110)
*Betting lines pulled from Bovada on Wednesday, 9/24
TV: ESPN – Joe Tessitore (pxp), Greg McElroy (analyst), Marty Smith (sidelines)
Quick hitter notes:
- This will be Florida’s first trip to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium since 2007 (UF 30-24) and first head-to-head matchup since the now infamous Will Grier explosion (UF 38-10).
- State of Mississippi is allowing 25% capacity attendance (approx. 16,000).
- Florida last opened a season with a true road game in 1987 at Miami.
- Former UF DC D.J. Durkin was hired as Co-DC/LB coach at Ole Miss in the offseason.
- St. Thomas Aquinas High School (Ft. Lauderdale) will have five alums on the field: four from UF – Trevon Grimes, Kyle Engel, Derek Wingo, and Coleman Crozier and one from Ole Miss – Elijah Moore.
Why the Gators will cover
QB Kyle Trask and the Gators return plenty of firepower on the offensive side of the ball. Key pieces like Van Jefferson, Freddie Swain, and Lamical Perine are gone, but Florida is entering into the 2020 season feeling as good about the offensive side of the ball as they have since Tim Tebow’s senior year.
Despite a high degree of turnover, the wide receiver group should still be one of the Gators’ strengths on offense. Kyle Pitts may be listed as a tight end, but his versality will once again be on full display. Trevon Grimes has been a steady presence who should see his numbers increase in 2020. Jacob Copeland has flashed great potential, senior Kadarius Toney returns, and freshman Xzavier Henderson along with Penn State transfer, Justin Shorter, should give Florida plenty of options on the outside.
Shorter was ruled eligible to play a few weeks back. The 6’5″, 225 lb wide receiver out of New Jersey is another weapon for Mullen on the outside. Shorter will bring a physical red zone presence that will prevent defenses from focusing too heavily on Pitts. Trask will spread the ball around, but Shorter should account for much more than the 12 receptions he made last year for the Lions.
The Gators will score plenty of points on Saturday, but the key to Florida covering will be up front on the defensive side of the ball where another five-star transfer has been making waves.
DE Brenton Cox will finally be unleashed in Orange and Blue after converting from the dark side. Freshman DT Gervon Dexter should continue to make headlines as well, but I’m fired up to see how DT Zachary Carter and BUCK Jeremiah Moon have developed. If the defensive line can control the Ole Miss run game, the back-end of the defense will likely force multiple turnovers.
Why the Rebels will cover
Other than 14.0 points being a big number for an SEC opener?
Over the last couple of seasons, the Rebs may have struggled defensively, but the offense was explosive at times.
The Lane Kiffin era officially kicks off in Oxford and the Rebels have yet to officially name a starting quarterback. Matt Corral, a one-time Florida commit, and two-sport star, John Rhys Plumlee, have battled for the spot throughout this shortened offseason. Plumlee is more of a runner than Corral, but reports seem to indicate that Kiffin is leaning toward the more accurate passer Corral. Expect both to see the field.
RB Jerrion Ealy (8722 yards, 6 TDs rushing) and WR Elijah Moore (850 yards, 67 receptions, 6 TDs), best known for his canine urination simulation in last year’s Egg Bowl, return to give Ole Miss plenty of big play ability.
Kiffin added two grad transfers at tight end who should have an immediate impact: Kenny Yeboah (Temple) and Chase Rogers (Louisiana). Yeboah is a 6’4″, 240 lb target who found the end zone five times last season in Philly and Rogers is rocking one hell of a mullet.
TE Chase Rogers photo via Ole Miss.
Ole Miss improved slightly on the defense in 2019. The 2018 season saw the Rebels surrender 36.2 ppg and 483 ypg. The 2019 unit lowered those totals to 26.5 ppg and 417 ypg.
Four of the five leading tacklers from 2019 return including LB Lakia Henry, who led the Rebels with 87 tackles. With the hire of Durkin, it’s likely Ole Miss will continue to grow on this side of the ball, however, I believe Kiffin needs another couple of years of recruiting to fully address the defense and playing an established Florida offense right out of gate is not the most ideal matchup for Ole Miss in 2020.
Final Verdict
A year ago, I felt confident in the Gators’ progress heading into the opener against Miami, but there was that uneasy feeling in the pit of my stomach that had been trained to be on alert over the course of a dark decade. Plenty of doubt still existed.
What if Franks reverts back to his old form? What if a new coaching staff had a few tricks up their sleeve with a new offense and some big name transfers? Were the Gators going to resemble the team that finished with four straight wins and a Peach Bowl beatdown over Michigan or the team that was smoked by MIzzou and had to battle back against South Carolina?
Heading into year three of the Dan Mullen era expectations are sky high for the preseason #5 Gators. I don’t know if 2020 will be the year Mullen breaks through, but Florida certainly has a chance. Gone are the doubts that lingered from a decade of offensive futility. Kyle Trask commanded Mullen’s offense with an ease that Franks lacked. Despite a running game that struggled behind an iffy offensive line, Trask managed to do something no Florida quarterback has done since Will Grier did on one magical night back in 2015…gain the full support of Gator Nation.
Yes, people are excited about the potential in Emory Jones, and we will continue to see him from time to time, but there is no doubt that 2020 will go as Trask goes. Mullen has the Gators back where they belong – competing for titles, but building a program takes time.
Lane Kiffin will undoubtedly have some fun with diverse group of weapons on the offensive side of the ball and the Rebels are sure to put up points this season, but how effective will Ole Miss be in slowing top-tier offenses?
Ole Miss has the “unknown” working in their favor, but Mullen is a great in game coach and will adjust rapidly. I expect Kiffin and the Rebels to come out firing on all cylinders and they may even jump out to an early lead, but Florida’s talent will take over and pull away in the second half.
I like the over in this one (Over 57.0) and I’m about 60/40 on Florida covering. If you want to bet conservatively, I would just stick to the over, but I’ve been denied SEC football until the last week of the September, so I’m throwing conservatism out the window and going with a parlay in this one – I’ll take Florida -14.0 plus Over 57.0.
PARLAY: FLORIDA -14.0 + OVER 57.0
#23 KENTUCKY AT #8 AUBURN -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Auburn (-300) / Kentucky (+250)
Total: Over 49.5 (-110) / Under 49.5 (-110)
No word on whether Auburn transfer QB Joey Gatewood has been cleared to play for Kentucky on Saturday, but the real story will be the return of QB Terry Wilson after suffering an early season knee injury last year.
Stoops and the Cats made a big statement by trotting out WR Lynn Bowden to fill in at quarterback and UK finished 8-5 with a bowl win over Virginia Tech. Think about that for a minute. Kentucky tossed a wide receiver in at quarterback and still won eight games.
Kentucky is no longer a pushover. Stoops has recruited well in Lexington. If the offense bounces back and regains its 2018 form when Wilson and Benny Snell Jr. led UK to a 10-win season, Kentucky will be a tough out for the big boys in the SEC.
Sophomore QB Bo Nix returns for the Tigers after a successful freshman campaign that included wins over Oregon and Alabama.
Auburn has always been dangerous under Gus Malzahn, but they’ve also been on a roller coaster since their national title appearance against Florida State after the 2013 season. In the six seasons since that Rose Bowl, the Tigers have lost at least four games. Beating the Tide in two out of the last three years has kept Malzahn’s critics at bay.
Auburn went 1-4 down the stretch against ranked opponents in 2019 and while last year shouldn’t be a major factor in making betting decisions for this Saturday, I think it’s an interesting piece of information considering the opponent.
Year after year, Stoops seems to get more out of less while Malzahn’s Tigers continue to ride that roller coaster. Auburn has the better roster. Auburn should win the game, however, I like Kentucky to keep things interesting in this one and cover the 7.5…give me the Cats with the points.
KENTUCKY +7.5
MISSISSIPPI STATE AT #6 LSU -16.5 (-110)
Moneyline: LSU (-800) / Mississippi State (+500)
Total: Over 57.0 (-110) / Under 57.0 (-110)
Just your typical college football game in which both team’s head coaches have inspired full feature pieces on 60 Minutes.
If you missed the piece on Coach Orgeron last week, do yourself a favor and watch it here. The highlight of the story was getting to meet Coach O’s mother at the midway point. New Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach was profiled back in 2009 when he was coaching at Texas Tech.
Mike Leach being a coach in the SEC is still surreal. I love what Leach brings to Starkville and I hope MSU gives him the proper amount of time to effectively build a winner. He can build his own version of the Mullen era by making the Bulldogs a consistent bowl team who serves as tough out week to week in conference play.
It took until year four in Pullman for Leach to put a winner on the field. Expect things to get worse before things get better in StarkVegas as Leach begins to put his stamp on the program.
His 60 Minutes appearance and offseason role as spokesman for all things COVID in Louisiana have kept him busy, but Orgeron has been trying to get a feel for his team which will feature almost an entirely new cast in 2020.
In addition to losing Burrow, Chaisson, Jefferson,, Queen, and Edwards-Helaire, the “Tigahs” have lost Biletnikoff Award winner Ja’Marr Chase, FS Kary Vincent and big NT Tyler Shelvin to COVID related opt-outs, though rumor has it Shelvin may return.
LSU was also hit by losses to the coaching staff. The Matt Rhule departure from Baylor to Carolina impacted both sides of the football as Joe Brady left his duties as an offensive analyst to join the Panthers as their offensive coordinator and Dave Aranda replaced Rhule at Baylor as the head coach. Former LSU DC Bo Pelini returns after a stint at Youngstown State and Scott Linehan will fill the Brady role while OC Steve Ensminger continues to handle the play calling.
Orgeron is a master recruiter and there’s no doubt this LSU roster is full of future NFL talent, but it may need some time to develop. An encore to 2019 was not going to happen with a full offseason and it has no chance to occur with the limited ability to practice and grow as a team.
Expect to see a lot of unproven talent on both sides of the ball.
I almost like the 16.5 point spread, but a late touchdown from Leach worries me so I’ll keep it simple and take the OVER 57.5 in this one as there should be plenty of offensive fireworks.
OVER 57.0 (-110)
#4 GEORGIA -26.0 (-110) AT ARKANSAS
Moneyline: Georgia (-2800) / Arkansas (+1100)
Total: Over 52.5 (-110) / Under 52.5 (-110)
Hear me out – I know Sam Pittman has spent the last several years working for the barking folks from up north, but I like the guy. From what I’ve seen, he’s almost impossible to not like.
What I’m going to fail to accomplish in words, I hope to supplement with video evidence throughout.
When Sam Pittman was hired, there’s no doubt that some people in Arkansas may have been disappointed. Especially when names like Lane Kiffin and up and coming Memphis head coach, Mike Norvell, were floating around. Kiffin will create headlines, but not all will be positive. For better or for worse, no one will bring the type of energy to Fayetteville as this guy:
Pittman is bringing energy to a program that badly needs it.
Go Hogs!!!!! pic.twitter.com/eAj1Hw4AOO
— Coach Sam Pittman (@CoachSamPittman) December 11, 2019
Pittman returns to Arkansas after a three-year stint under Bret Bielema from 2013-15 as the Assistant Head Coach and Offensive Line Coach. He’s familiar with the ins and the outs in the program which helps offset some concern that this is his first shot at the head job.
Another positive for Pittman: he nailed his top assistant hires, luring ex-Mizzou head coach Barry Odom down the road to Fayetteville and Kendal Briles, who spent last year at FSU after a stint at FAU. An ace recruiter at the top paired with high-level coordinators is a formula LSU just rode to a national title. If you doubt Pittman’s ability to sell, take a look a his intro sermon…errr…press conference where he lands somewhere between speaking in tongues and giving a speech at an awards show that is cut short by the orchestra while the stage.
Woo Pig Soo-llelujah!
The Hogs will lean on Florida transfer QB Feleipe Franks and RB Rakeem Boyd to move the football on offense. Franks should allow the Razorbacks to play close in some games this season and while Arkansas picked up other other grad transfers from Clemson and Oklahoma as stop-gaps, many are expecting this to be a long year starting with rough opener against Georgia.
Georgia comes into the game with an offense led by QB Justin Fields…wait, I meant Jamie Newman….wait, I meant J.T. Daniels, but I might have also meant D’Wan Mathis. I think it won’t be Stetson Bennett? Eh, what do I know? Kirby will have likely locked up three more five-star quarterbacks and lost two of them by kickoff.
Will Georgia cover despite the confusion at the quarterback position?
Yessssssssssssssirrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!
The Dawgs will rely on a stout defense and new offensive coordinator Todd Monken will likely try to incorporate in wide receivers George Pickens, Demetris Robertson, and Dominick Blaylock early to set a new tone on offense for Georgia. Give me the bad guys to cover.
Here’s a heartwarming story about a bunch of ex-Georgia Bulldogs:
GEORGIA -26.0 (-110)
#2 ALABAMA -27.5 (-110) AT MISSOURI
Moneyline: Alabama (-3000) / Missouri (+1125)
Total: Over 56.0 (-110) / Under 56.0 (-110)
Hello Eliah,
On behalf of our great Southeastern Conference members, welcome to the SEC! We’re sure that one year at Appalachian State has fully prepared you for the rigors of our conference.
We realize you will face some serious challenges in rebuilding a Missouri program which made two opportunistic appearances in the SEC Championship game in 2013 and 2014 while Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee were all on a hiatus from playing serious football. Florida and Georgia have found their groove again and, let’s be real, even Kentucky has put you into their rearview mirror…but hey…there’s still Tennessee, right?
This past year has brought on many challenges and since we had a chance to restructure the league schedule, we thought we’d offer you some true Southern hospitality by allowing you to open with Nick Saban and Alabama.
To quote our league’s fantastic officials, “Roll Tide!”
Good luck against Vandy this year,
Real Gregg Sankee
Real SEC Commish
ALABAMA -27.5 (-110)
VANDERBILT AT #10 TEXAS A&M -30.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Not offered
Total: Over 46.0 (-110) / Under 46.0 (-110)
A brutal 2019 schedule tagged the Aggies with five losses in year two of the Jimbo Fisher era in College Station, so opening with Vanderbilt almost feels like karma finally paying off.
High expectations surround the A&M program heading into QB Kellen Mond’s senior year. Fisher has cultivated a deep roster with upperclassmen depth mixed with a wealth of talented young players. They haven’t done it when it really counts, but it feels inevitable that the Aggies will break through one of these years. We’ll find out quickly if this is finally the year as A&M travels to Tuscaloosa next weekend and hosts the Gators in Week 3.
Since Fisher is looking ahead to those two key games, I expect the Aggies to keep their foot on the gas from start to finish in this one and treat it more than the preseason contest that a 30.5 point spread hints at against a woefully overmatch Vandy team.
The Commodores are usually good for a few dogfights per season, but in this shortened season, expect the wear and tear to eat at the league rosters which lack depth.
Vanderbilt football may go 0-for-2020.
Find the Vandy win on their schedule: at Texas A&M, LSU, South Carolina, at Mizzou, Ole Miss, at Miss State, at Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, and at Georgia. One or two might be there…but that’s about it.
It’s a big number to cover, but A&M doesn’t let up and puts up a big number of their own.
PARLAY: TEXAS A&M -30.5 (-110) + OVER 46.0
#16 TENNESSEE -3.5 (-170) AT SOUTH CAROLINA
Moneyline: Tennessee (-170) / South Carolina (+150)
Total: Over 43.5 (-110) / Under 43.5 (-110)
In 2011, the Tennessee Volunteers experienced defeat for the first time at the hands of head coach Will Muschamp.
In 2012, the Tennessee Volunteers experienced defeat for the second time at the hands of head coach Will Muschamp.
In 2013, the Tennessee Volunteers experienced defeat for the third time at the hands of head coach Will Muschamp.
In 2014, the Tennessee Volunteers experienced defeat for the fourth time at the hands of head coach Will Muschamp.
In 2015, Will Muschamp rested.
In 2016, the Tennessee Volunteers experienced defeat for the fifth time at the hands of head coach Will Muschamp.
In 2017, the Tennessee Volunteers experienced defeat for the sixth time at the hands of head coach Will Muschamp.
In 2018, the Tennessee Volunteers experienced defeat for the seventh time at the hands of head coach Will Muschamp.
Rocky Top finally broke the Will Muschamp curse last season after riding a 24-0 second half to a 41-21 victory.
Tennessee should win this game and the smart pick might be Tennessee on the moneyline, but I’m not convinced the curse is dead. Long live the Muschamp curse!
