Florida looks to go 2-0 over South Carolina and Will Muschamp

Week two is upon us, and Will Muschamp brings his South Carolina squad into the Swamp.

Florida fans are quite familiar with Muschamp, and the schadenfreude that Gators fans felt as he kicked a field goal down seven with three minutes to go last week against Tennessee was palpable. We’ve seen that kind of conservatism before.

But those days are over in Gainesville, as the Gators offense resembled the 2008 offense against Mississippi in the opener. Gone are the screen passes on third-and-long and then relying on the defense that marked the Muschamp and McElwain eras. Instead, Florida fans only have concerns about their defense coming out of the game against Ole Miss (oh, how things have changed since 2017).

That defense was torched by the Rebels, giving up over 600 yards and 7.9 yards per play. But Mississippi was a good offense last season while South Carolina was abysmal (122nd in yards per play vs. FBS opponents). Also, we saw a lot of missed tackles and defenses struggling early on, so was the performance against Mississippi a one-time deal or are all of Florida’s games going to be track meets?

Florida comes into this one as a 17.5-point favorite. That means Vegas thinks that this Gamecocks team is worse than the Ole Miss team Florida just dispatched.

So, is that true?

Offense

The South Carolina offense is being led by QB Collin Hill. Hill is a transfer from Colorado State, where he got significant playing time in 2018 and some playing time (8 games) in 2016 and 2019.

The record over that span is a mixed bag.

Hill completed 60.7 percent of his throws for a 7.7 yards per attempt average in his three years at Colorado State, with a QB Rating of 137.7. He did play well in three games in 2019 (QB Rating of 158.8), but the vast majority of the stats that contribute to that rating came from a 4-TD performance against Western Illinois.

Against Tennessee, Hill was exactly the QB that he was at Colorado State, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt with a QB rating of 129.9. He also had seven rushes for -12 yards, which contributed to a Yards above Replacement (YAR) rating of -0.71. For that statistics – which I developed for this site – zero is considered average and -0.71 is right around where Feleipe Franks finished for Florida in 2017.

So yeah, it wasn’t a great performance by Hill.

Florida really struggled with Ole Miss, in part because when they rushed the QB too aggressively, and Matt Corral was able to make them pay by running the ball. That concern shouldn’t be there with Hill.

South Carolina also struggled to move the ball on the ground against the Vols. The Gamecocks had 35 carries for 89 yards (2.5 yards per rush) and were not able to keep Tennessee out of the backfield (nine tackles for loss, 4 sacks).

That’s an important statistic, because when you look at the film, you can see some ways that Todd Grantham should be able to take advantage of some tendencies that the Gamecocks already showed on film when they get behind the sticks.

This is the play that South Carolina went to a bunch in third-and-long situations. I’m not sure they ever actually converted one, but it fits the Muschamp strategy in that it is relatively conservative.

On this particular play, Hill gets the ball out late and throws the ball slightly behind the receiver. Tennessee gets lucky that it bounces right to its defensive back and they are able to return it for a TD.

But I’d like to see something else from Todd Grantham: a zone blitz.

This is a play that made me really positive for further development of Kyle Trask coming into this year. It was his third start, on the road against a big-time opponent, yet he still kept his poise and saw the LSU defensive end drop into coverage. He wanted to hit his man coming across the middle, but moved off of it because of the defensive scheme.

I’d like to see Grantham force Hill into this read. I saw Carolina call some variation of this play at least five times on 2nd or 3rd-and-long. With the struggles Florida showed in coverage last week, those crossing routes are a good way to get receivers open in space. But it can also easily turn into a pick-6 for Florida if Grantham drops his defensive lineman into coverage at the right time.

The play is coming. We even know when it’s coming. The question is whether Florida be prepared to stop it or even take advantage?

Defense

Will Muschamp is known for defense, but the truth is that his defenses at South Carolina have been pretty average lately.

The Gamecocks finished last season ranked 62nd in yards per play allowed against FBS opponents after finishing 60th in the same category in 2018. Those aren’t bad defenses, but they’re just average.

Against the Vols, the Gamecocks gave up 133 yards rushing on 33 carries (4.0 yards per rush). That isn’t terrible, but on the opening drive of the second half, Tennessee opened up a 21-7 lead by running the ball right down South Carolina’s throat.

You can see the issue on this play right here. The defensive end on the left side of the formation gets blown off the ball. None of the other players on the defensive line were able to get any push at all. The defensive backs were dropping into a zone, meaning that the running back didn’t get hit until he was eight yards downfield.

They also made Jarrett Guarantano look like a pretty good QB. Guarantano threw 31 times for 259 yards (8.4 yards per attempt) and ran for 12 yards on 5 carries, including a 19-yard scamper on the aforementioned TD drive. That correlated to a YAR of 0.72, which indicates good – but not elite – play.

But a close look at the film indicates that Guarantano left a bunch of plays on the field.

Multiple drives ended for Tennessee because Guarantano missed open men. This play is illustrative of that point, where the South Carolina defense leaves a large hole in the zone and Guarantano just needs to drop the throw in there. Instead, he throws a bullet that makes the catch nearly impossible for his receiver.

It’s the kind of play where you think, “ooooh, just missed.” But it happened on probably three or four drives in the game, which is why South Carolina was able to hang in this game.

Kyle Trask didn’t miss that kind of throw last season. He’s certainly not going to miss it now with the way he played against Ole Miss.

Coaching

I like ragging on Will Muschamp because he’s everything that someone like me who’s into analytics point towards.

His game management is often questionable. He is almost always too conservative, punting when going for it is the better statistical play. But he’s an excellent recruiter and a great defensive coach, which means his teams are always pretty competitive.

But the four-point loss to Tennessee is just inexcusable. To kick a field goal, down seven, with just over three minutes left is a terrible statistical decision. The reasons are pretty simple.

By kicking the field goal, Muschamp was giving up some percentage that he’d score a touchdown on that particular drive. Yes, it was 4th-and-12, but he was also deep in Tennessee territory and you just don’t know whether you’ll get down there again.

Yes, South Carolina should have gotten the ball back on the punt that hit their special team’s gunner, but best-case scenario, they were taking over deep in their own territory. While the only stats I can find on this is for the NFL, the expected points taking over at your own 25-yard line is less than one.

That means that being down four with the opportunity to get the ball back in your own territory is basically statistically equivalent to being down seven while having to force your opponent to punt as well. Muschamp gave up a good opportunity to tie the game for a significantly worse opportunity to win it.

He would have been better off going for it on 4th down and then going for a two-point conversion to try and get the win.

These kind of mistakes rarely happen under Dan Mullen. His 10-3 and 11-2 records the past two seasons are buoyed by 6-1 record in one-score games. He typically outperforms his peers compared to his recruiting prowess. He sends 3-star players to the NFL at a higher rate than his peers. He’s a really good coach.

Takeaway

Is South Carolina’s defense going to be able to stop Florida’s offense? No.

Is Florida’s defense going to be able to stop South Carolina’s offense? Possibly.

Is Dan Mullen a better coach than Will Muschamp? Yes.

That means that if we’re looking at probabilities, Florida should have an easy win if their defense plays decently and a close win if its defense plays poorly. But for Florida to lose this one, Muschamp is going to have to make all correct in-game decisions, Collin Hill is going to have to take advantage of Florida’s defense deep and South Carolina is going to have to stop the run and slow down Kyle Trask.

That’s a lot that has to go right.

But will Florida cover? Well, that’s a different discussion.

17.5 points is a lot. Muschamp does now have a game of tape to see how Florida got Kyle Pitts open and scheme how to prevent that from happening. And defensive struggles haven’t stopped just because it was the second game of the year.

Oklahoma lost last week giving up 38 points to a short-handed Kansas State squad after opening up with a 48-0 win over Missouri State. Texas gave up 56 points to Texas Tech after beating UTEP 59-3. These are both Big-12 teams, but the point is that just expecting Florida’s defense to all of a sudden be way better is probably wishful thinking.

But South Carolina doesn’t go deep very often (1/4 for 42 yards vs. Tennessee). They can’t run the ball. And their QB isn’t going to be able to exploit the Gators defense by running for a third-down conversion or two. I think they probably score somewhere between 17 to 24 points.

That means that to cover, Florida will need to score 35 to 42 points. If you watched the explosion over Ole Miss, you know they are capable. I think they’re able to do it again.

Florida wins (-17.5), 38-17.

Predictions this season: 1-0 straight-up, 1-0 against the spread (ATS)

Featured image used under Creative Commons license courtesy Clemson Tiger Net