Two Saturdays ago, Alex Kirshner sent out this tweet.
https://twitter.com/alex_kirshner/status/1317463899533430786?s=20
I laughed at first, but that night, I began to serious consider the notion that 2020 could be the year in which we see a Group of Five-level team breakthrough to earn a playoff spot.
Seem too far-fetched?
Let’s first start with BYU.
The Cougars have spent the better part of the last decade floundering in their newfound status as an Independent. BYU’s attempt to become the Notre Dame of the west has been met with a good deal of ridicule and has not always played to their own benefit. However, independent status ultimately saved the Cougars 2020 season. Had BYU stayed put in the Mountain West, they would’ve have been at the mercy of their fellow members who voted to cancel the season in the wake over the COVID-19 pandemic. The Mountain West, like several other conferences, ultimately reversed course on that decision to cancel and allowed their members to begin play starting last week, just as BYU was suiting up for its sixth game of the season.
This is not an argument for the sake of an argument, this has become a point of discussion because BYU has looked incredibly impressive in the first two months of the season. Question the strength of schedule all you’d like but if the Cougars end up running the table, they will have road wins at Houston and at Boise State on their resume.
In a typical year, BYU has nowhere near the resume to get in, but if the Cougars complete their run toward perfection, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will have an interesting dilemma on its hands.
Does an 11-0 BYU team warrant consideration for a fourth playoff spot over a 6-1 Pac-12 champion? How about a two-loss Georgia or Notre Dame who only lose to Alabama and Clemson respectively?
Let’s walk through the playoff contenders conference by conference to sort out the possibility of an unbeaten BYU snagging the fourth playoff spot.
SEC
Contender(s): Alabama
Perfect run needed: Georgia, Florida, and Texas A&M
Eliminated: Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss
The Crimson Tide have re-staked their claim as the team to beat in the SEC. Only three teams remotely have a shot a playoff spot: Georgia, Florida, and Texas A&M. The Dawgs would have to win out and top Bama in Atlanta to capture a playoff spot. I don’t find that scenario likely after witnessing the Tide overwhelm UGA in the second half a couple Saturdays ago.
Florida needs to show some serious improvement on the defensive side of the ball if they are going to beat Georgia in Jacksonville and avoid another A&M-like upset. We’ve seen one-loss non-SEC champions sell themselves to the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, so Jimbo Fisher and the Aggies cannot be ruled out of the playoff hunt.
Barring any major upsets though, it’s safe to say that Alabama should win the SEC. That would eliminate Florida and Georgia on the spot. A&M is the one wild card to worry about if you are BYU.
ACC
Contender(s): Clemson, Notre Dame
Perfect run needed: Miami, North Carolina
Eliminated: NC State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Florida State, Virginia, Syracuse, and Duke
The Tigers are head and shoulders above the rest of the conference and can sleepwalk their way to punching a playoff ticket. We’ll be told that their trip to Notre Dame in two weeks is a critical matchup and, while it will appear that way on paper, most of us would be surprised if the Fighting Irish are remotely competitive against Clemson.
Miami already had a crack at Clemson and it didn’t go so well. North Carolina lost credibility with a puzzling upset loss to Florida State. Both of these teams can run the table of Clemson-less schedules to earn an ACC Championship game matchup with the champs. It would take a minor miracle for either of these schools to take down the Tigers.
Big XII
Contender(s): Oklahoma State
Perfect run needed: Kansas State
Eliminated: Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia, Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, and Kansas
A clutch home victory over Iowa State kept Oklahoma State’s playoff hopes alive and propelled the Cowboys into the driver’s seat of the Big XII. The Mike Gundy era has been the most impressive stretch in the history of Oklahoma State football. Consistently good football in Stillwater, OK, is an achievement that should be appreciated, but big investments into the school’s athletic programs and facilities have raised expectations and Gundy’s teams have not met those increased expectations. Now is the time to strike!
I’ve included Kansas State only to acknowledge the Wildcats have won four straight and technically sit atop of the conference. In a normal year, an opening loss to Arkansas State would be a disqualifying event, but in 2020, we’ll keep the Cats in the hunt until they drop their second game.
Two early season losses for Oklahoma and Texas have handed full control of the conference to Oklahoma State and will allow enough buffer for a patented Oklahoma State choke job at some point. However, if the Cowboys want to be in the playoffs, they must run the table and their track-record tells us that will be unlikely to occur.
Big Ten
Since we’re only one week into Big Ten play, I’ll spare us all from 1-0 Rutgers and Indiana appearing in the “Contenders” column and break it down by expectation.
Ohio State is the only Big Ten team with serious preseason playoff hype. The Buckeyes, along with any other Big Ten team, must run through a shortened eight-game schedule without a defeat. For that reason, we can eliminate the following teams:
Eliminated: Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska.
Unbeaten Pretenders: Rutgers, Indiana, Northwestern, and Purdue
Still Alive but Not Likely: Michigan and Wisconsin
Contender(s): Ohio State
Not many are banking on Michigan to win out and slay the Ohio State boogeyman. Wisconsin looked good against Illinois, but when the Badgers go up against the big boys, they tend to fall. With Penn State going down in Hoosier Country this past weekend, we’re left with one legitimate playoff contender: The Ohio State University.
Pac-12
The Pac-12, like the Big Ten, has no room for error in a shortened seven-game season which starts next week.
Based on recent history, the only teams which should be considered are Oregon, Washington, Utah, and USC. The shortened season could gives two unbeatens in the Pac-12 Championship. Each teams will play six regular season games (five in-division and one crossover game) plus one final game on the day of the Pac-12 title game for those teams which do not qualify.
Washington, Utah, and USC are all capable of putting together a run, but the playoff committee will likely not need to look much beyond Eugene, Oregon, when considering playoff contenders out of the Pac-12.
Utah is replacing several key starters from 2019. Washington is in year one of the Jimmy Lake era after losing three games or more in each season since their 2016 playoff appearance. USC has been inconsistent under Clay Helton and, even if they take a leap and run the table in a shortened regular season, it’s hard to imagine them taking down a powerful Oregon squad in the Pac-12 title game.
The Ducks have a manageable regular season: vs Stanford, at Washington State, vs UCLA, at Oregon State, at Cal, and vs Washington. Though Oregon is the clear favorite out west, they are no sure thing. Head coach Mario Cristobal must find a solution at quarterback to replace first-round pick Justin Herbert. Tyler Shough, a 6’5″ redshirt sophomore, and Boston College grad transfer Anthony Brown will try to fill the gap.
Contender(s): Oregon
Outside Shot: Washington, USC, and Utah
Unlikely: Cal, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington State, Arizona State, Arizona, Colorado, and UCLA
Group of Five
American Athletic Conference
Cincinnati knocked off SMU in a game that did nothing to raise the Bearcats’ profile as a playoff crasher. The game wasn’t too impressive and Cincy pulled away late to make the score look more lopsided than how it played out on the field. However, if we’re going to consider an unbeaten BYU, let’s acknowledge an unbeaten Cincinnati would have to run through Army, SMU, Memphis, Houston, UCF, and a tough Tulsa team to get there.
Mountain West
Everybody’s BCS darling, the blue carpeted Boise State Broncos, can supplant BYU as the top Power Five playoff candidate should the Broncos defend their home turf against BYU next Friday night.
That’s right, folks. Forget Clemson at Notre Dame on November 7, the real game of the week will take place on Friday night when BYU travels to Boise State for a 9:45 PM ET kickoff.
Acknowledgements, but no need to expand upon
- 6-0 Liberty (Independent)
- 5-0 Marshall (C-USA)
- 5-0 Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt)
BYU’s College Football Playoff Picture
Let’s assume that Clemson, Alabama, and Ohio State claim the first three spots in this year’s College Football Playoff. BYU needs to root for these three teams to follow the chalk lines and punch their tickets to the playoff. It will help discard terms like Georgia, Florida, Notre Dame, Miami, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Remaining threats to a BYU Playoff Appearance:
- Unbeaten Pac-12 Champ (best shot – Oregon)
- Unbeaten Big XII Champ (Oklahoma State)
- I think BYU gets in over an undefeated Cincinnati thanks to the eye test. QB Zach Wilson and the Cougars offense would lend itself better to the CFP than a team like Cincinnati.
- Wild-card – a one-loss Texas A&M; if the Aggies go 9-1, their three best wins will be Florida, LSU, and Auburn. I expect Jimbo’s bunch to trip-up somewhere along the way.
So while it may seem like the stars need to align for the Cougars to make the College Football Playoff, it’s no longer a completely far-fetched scenario.
The first order of business is to take care of business. The Cougs need to continue to rack up style points (welcome back to the BCS) against lesser opponents and knock off Boise State on the blue turf next Friday night. If BYU can follow that recipe, they may find themselves lining up to play Clemson in the Rose or Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day.
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