I went 1-2 last week in games with 20+ point spreads. This week features three more 20+ point spread games and double digit spreads in each SEC game with exception to the Egg Bowl, which stands just a half-point shy of being a double digit spread.
KENTUCKY AT #6 FLORIDA -25.5 (-110)
Moneyline: FLORIDA (-2000) / KENTUCKY (+950)
Total: Over/Under 61
In the last three games against teams not named Vanderbilt, the Kentucky offense has netted 145, 229, and 179 total yards respectively while scoring a total of 16 points. Will that particular stat matter against a Florida defense which has surrendered 400+ yards four times in seven outings, including 406 total yards to Vanderbilt?
Florida has yet to hold an opponent under 17 points (Mizzou was able to get there thanks to a pick six). I’m going to go out on a limb and say Kentucky will get to the 17 point mark. Will Trask and the offense fire on all cylinders like we saw against Arkansas or will we see a slow start as we did against Vandy? If the Gators can top the 42 point mark, there should be no issue covering against Kentucky.
I might have been able to skip the two paragraphs above and just led with what will likely be the most impactful stat of the game: Kentucky will be without 18 players due to COVID and injuries. Mark Stoops has done a great job of building the UK program, but few teams can handle that kind of loss.
Florida rolls on Saturday.
FLORIDA -25.5
#22 AUBURN AT #1 ALABAMA -24.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Alabama (-2000) / Auburn (+950)
Total: Over/Under 62.5
The Crimson Tide will be Sabanless for the first time since this magnificent interview:
On paper, 5-2 Auburn is having a nice season outside of a couple of ugly performances against Georgia and South Carolina. The Tigers battled with Kentucky into the fourth quarter, survived a scrappy Arkansas thanks to a bad call by the SEC officials, jumped an erratic LSU, and needed an 100-yard pick six to cover against a tanking Tennessee.
So why am I hesitant to pick the Tide to cover? Because it’s the Iron Bowl.
Auburn will show up with more energy than it did against Georgia. The offense has played well since their puzzling loss to Carolina. Though I’m not overly confident in the Tigers’ resume or in quarterback Bo Nix, I worry that Alabama may give a late score which allows Auburn to cover. I have no concerns that Alabama will score early and often. Auburn will trail in this one, but they’ll do their part to hit the over.
Over 62.5
VANDERBILT AT MISSOURI -14 (-115)
Moneyline: Missouri (-620) / Vanderbilt (+410)
Total: Over/Under 51
The COVID universe removed Arkansas and bestowed Vanderbilt upon the Missouri Tigers. Though it seems like a lucky break for Mizzou, the Commodores’ only SEC win in 2019 was a 21-14 upset over the Tigers in Nashville thanks to a strong effort from current Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn.
Vanderbilt can be a tough out from time to time, but they won’t sneak up on Missouri this year.
MISSOURI -14
MISSISSIPPI STATE AT OLE MISS -9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Ole Miss (-340) / Mississippi State (+270)
Total: Over/Under 69
If you took a time machine back to what feels like seven years ago, February 2020, many college football pundits would’ve told you the Egg Bowl was easily one of the most anticipated games of the season. Why?
Lane Kiffin vs. Mike Leach.
Both teams are a combined 5-9, however, the season couldn’t have gone any differently for the Magnolia State’s two flagship schools. Kiffin has added another gear to an explosive offensive unit, but the defense has been porous. Leach started out with a bang, but the Bulldogs have only beaten Vandy since October. Mississippi State played Georgia down to the wire last week. For the first time in months, the offense looked competent. Was it a one-off showing against a sleepy UGA defense or was it a sign of progress?
I’ll error on the side of caution and go with Ole Miss on the moneyline.
Ole Miss Moneyline
LSU AT #5 TEXAS A&M -15 (-110)
Moneyline: Texas A&M (-650) / LSU (+425)
Total: Over/Under 63.5
LSU may be the toughest team to project on a week to week basis. The Tigers defense has struggled at times while the offense has excelled others.
Expect LSU to play well in what appears to be a coin flip game against Auburn? LSU loses by 37 points.
Think South Carolina has a shot to sneak out of Death Valley with a win? LSU wins by four touchdowns.
Texas A&M continues to be the outsider looking in on the College Football Playoff, but the Aggies have a shot to sneak in if they can win their final three games. The Aggies will look to make a statement in a primetime time slot that includes the likes Duke-Georgia Tech, Utah-Washington, and Virginia Florida State. Though LSU is down, a big win will no doubt help the Aggies in the eyes of the selection committee.
Texas A&M will take its best shot, but LSU will keep it closer than expected.
LSU +15
#15 GEORGIA -21.5 (-110) AT SOUTH CAROLINA
Moneyline: Georgia (-1400) / South Carolina (+750)
Total: Over/Under 49
J.T. Daniels finally found his way onto the field and lit Mississippi State up for 400+ yards passing. The Dawgs decided to slack off on defense and failed to cover a 20+ against what had been a struggling Mississippi State offense. I should boycott the Dawgs this week, but I’ve watched too many South Carolina games to do so. Georgia wins big.
GEORGIA -21.5
Season in Review
Overall: 27-21 (56.3%)
Week 1: 3-4
Week 2: 3-4
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 1-4
Week 5: 2-2
Week 6: 4-2
Week 7: 4-0
Week 8: 3-0
Week 9: 3-2
FLORIDA -31.5 – Incorrect
It’s a big spread to cover, but I’m going to show some faith in the defense to get it done. Gators cover.
I was excited about the Gators big win over the Hogs and thought they would carry that pace over into the Vandy game. Florida fans rarely emerge from Vanderbilt games totally satisfied…I should’ve known better. (Yes, I do realize the irony of recognizing this point in an article where I picked Florida to cover nearly four touchdowns against Kentucky, another opponent which usually brings out the worst in the Gators, but c’mon…Kentucky is missing 18 players…Florida has to cover, right? No regrets.)
Under 63.5
The Hogs won’t allow LSU to cross the 30-point mark and the LSU defense will make enough plays to keep this game close. Either way, I like the under.
The roller coaster continues for Coach O and the Tigahs. Arkansas feisty as usual in what was the game of the day in the SEC last week.
ALABAMA -30 – Correct
An Alabama offense that has yet to be held under 41 points will continue to roll and the Tide will cover.
Roll Tide.
AUBURN MONEYLINE- Correct
Tennessee likely falls here, but don’t be surprised if the Vols hang around for a bit.
One of these days, the Vols will play two good halves of football. Auburn doesn’t cover here without the aid of a 100-yard pick six.
GEORGIA -24.5 – Incorrect
Georgia may continue on its path of offensive ineptitude to some degree, but the Dawgs will score enough to cover against a weak Miss State offense in the Battle of the Bulldogs.
I didn’t see the Mississippi State offense scoring 24 on a Georgia defense that tends to dominate weaker opponents.
MISSOURI -6.5 – Correct
Missouri has shown the ability to play up-tempo and outgun teams (LSU) or slow it down and win with its defense (Kentucky). The Tigers cover easy in the Battle of the Columbias.
It looked like it was going to be easy once Mizzou jumped up 17-0, but South Carolina clawed their way back to make it a respectable 17-10 game.
