The All-SEC Project, Part 3: How timing plays a key role in building a champion

As much I enjoy dialoguing with other Gator fans about college football recruiting and roster building, interactions on the topics tend to lack certain aspects of important context. The discussions typically either revolve around the importance of acquiring talent, or the offsetting impact of Dan Mullen’s coaching acumen. But no one ever seems to address the specific timing challenges of developing recruited players.

This is problematic, because the construction of a championship football team depends on a lot of perpetually-moving parts. Players are constantly coming in, developing, and then leaving, all on seemingly random timelines. Since we learned in Part 1 that winning the SEC usually requires a sizable group of all-conference performers, assembling them all at once feels a lot like trying to catch lightning in a bottle.

But is it really that random? Or, are there identifiable, historic patterns which can shed light on when elite players are most-likely to reach their potential? Can the data tell us how many elite performers Coach Mullen needs to find each year to build a champion? And what can it tell us about complicating factors, like early NFL departures?

With questions like these in mind, this installment of The All-SEC Project series will explore the complex timing issues of fielding elite players. With 10 years of AP All-SEC Team data (549 player profiles) as a guide, we’ll find out what Mullen deals with as he seeks to put enough of them on the field at the same time to win the conference. To do so, the All-SEC data will first be used to answer the following questions:

• How common is redshirting among future All-SEC players?
• Wait… Doesn’t everybody get a Covid-19 exemption year?
• Which positions redshirt most often?
• When does each position typically develop into All-SEC players?
• How many All-SEC players are needed from each recruiting class?
• Why not just find repeat winners?
• Which positions repeat most often?
• How often do All-SEC players leave early for the NFL?
• Which positions leave early most often?

The answers to these questions will progressively pull the curtain back on the timing factors of elite player development and assembly. Once the clarity they provide is established, the article will conclude with key takeaways for fans. So, get ready, because here comes part 3…

How common is redshirting among future All-SEC players?

One of the earliest timing factors of building a championship team is the practice of “redshirting”, because it usually impacts players during their first year on campus. In case you aren’t familiar with the term, redshirting refers to when a college football player sits out of games for a season to preserve a year of eligibility for future use (They can now play in up to 4 games during a particular season without losing the option). Since the NCAA allows each player 5 years to compete in 4 seasons, redshirting provides many freshmen a valuable year of development before they take the field.

Redshirt seasons aren’t always needed though, as some players show up and play immediately. Several factors determine whether this happens (i.e. depth chart, injury, preparation), but the best players tend to avoid redshirts most of the time. Consider that over the past 10 years, only 26.4% of the AP’s All-SEC players were former redshirts. During the same period at UF, the rate was even lower at 19%.

Though some have suggested that Dan Mullen may prefer to increase this percentage at UF, the numbers from his tenure at Mississippi State weren’t that much higher. Over the past decade, MSU’s redshirt rate of future All-SEC players ranked only 6^th in the conference at 30% (slightly above the SEC average). As long as this and the trends mentioned above continue, fans should probably expect most of Mullen’s All-SEC players at UF to be those who avoid redshirting as freshmen.

Regardless, redshirting impacts more than just the odds of success for individual players. Since the practice essentially allows an athlete to repeat their freshman year, it also determines which recruiting class they will play alongside over 3-4 years. As such, it carries potential to concentrate or dilute a team’s number of simultaneous All-SEC performers in any given year. Depending which of the two happens, it can be the difference in whether the team’s total reaches a historic championship level.

**Author’s note: Only redshirts during a player’s freshman year were counted, regardless of the reason stated. This was done to isolate redshirts used for initial development as a factor**

Wait… Doesn’t everybody get a Covid-19 exemption year?

Of course, these neat little facts apply to the normal world we used to live in, not 2020. As is the case with everything else around us, the time of Covid-19 has temporarily transformed redshirting into a totally different animal. Case in point: With the NCAA’s recent epidemic-driven decision to grant its fall athletes an extra year of eligibility, everybody essentially just got the benefits of a redshirt year, but without the cost.

For now, this means Coach Mullen is free to play any and every freshman he’s got with no worry of costing them eligibility. Even if they compete in every game, they can return as freshman again for the fall of 2021. This is a great opportunity for the players, but it could impact the timeline of their emergence on the All-SEC level.

To understand why, first consider that freshman aren’t the only ones gaining an extra year. The exemption applies to all rostered players, including those of each class year. So, even this fall’s seniors may return for one more round next season, if they choose to do so. In many cases around the country, this will undoubtedly keep talented freshmen off the field in 2021. Also, since the entire 2020 and 2021 recruiting classes will be freshmen at the same time next season, coaches may attempt to rebalance rosters by using more redshirts than normal. It’s hard to say for sure how this will play out though, as these are uncharted waters.

Which positions redshirt most often?

For the sake of this discussion, let’s just momentarily assume that such changes only impact the bigger picture, while positional redshirt trends remain mostly intact. Historically, eventual All-SEC players at some positions redshirt much more often than others. On the high end for example, over half of recent All-SEC QBs (53%) were former redshirts. On the other end of the spectrum, All-SEC CBs had the lowest positional rate, with a mere 10%.

Though the other positions fell at various points between these two, there is a general guideline evident within the data: QBs (the most cerebrally demanding position) and positions that feature bigger-bodied players (which require more physical development) tend to redshirt more often. As evidence, consider that QB, OL, TE, DT, LB, and DE all have higher redshirt rates than those players at WR, P, S, RB, AP, and CB. Place kickers appear to be an exception with the 3^rd highest rate of 38%, but this may reflect a low rate of early NFL Draft departures and other factors (more on that later).

The important takeaways here however, are the disproportionately high redshirt rates at both QB and OL. In any other season, about half of future All-SEC players at these positions would redshirt during their first year on campuses. Since the rates are significantly lower at several other positions, there’s a good chance that elite players at QB and OL will end up 1 class year behind other elites from the same recruiting class.

When does each position typically develop into All-SEC players?

Now, I get it if you’re thinking “So what? What difference does it make if a future All-SEC player is separated from his recruiting class by one measly year?” As it turns out however, the numbers suggest a bigger potential timing impact than you might expect. To understand why, let’s now turn our attention to when each position typically breaks through to earn All-Conference recognition.

The chart above illustrates the percentage of All-SEC awards earned by players at each position, during each year of their collegiate careers. At offensive line for example, 53% of All-SEC awardees were college seniors, 27% were juniors, 18% were sophomores, and only 3% were freshmen. But keep in mind that each of these columns includes former redshirt players. In the case of offensive linemen, this resulted in over 60% of awards going to players in either their 4^th or 5^th years. Only 27% went to 3^rd year players (true juniors and redshirt sophomores), while the remaining 13% went to freakazoids who made the cut as 1^st and 2^nd years players (Life Tip: Don’t pick fights with people who can do that).

This may still appear as a trivial distinction, until we compare the most common all-conference years for other positions. The thing is, some of the positions least likely to redshirt are also those that are most likely to achieve all-conference status in earlier years. At RB for example, the redshirt rate is only 14%, while 88% of the position’s all conference players earned recognition before their senior year. So, while OLs are most commonly awarded in years 4 or 5, RB and some other positions are more likely to break through to elite play in years 2 or 3. Because of this, the higher red-shirt rate positions can actually end up playing at an all-conference level 2 years after some others do from their same recruiting class.

For Dan Mullen, this presents a unique challenge as it pertains to timing. To win in Atlanta, he not only needs to produce a sufficient number of All-SEC players at the right positions, but he also needs them to earn such recognition simultaneously.  Remember, The Championship Template calls for at least 6 (but preferably 8+) All-SEC players in the same season. That’s difficult enough as-is, but when those players are prone to peak at different points in their careers (sometimes 2 years apart), it makes the job that much harder.

How many All-SEC players are needed from each recruiting class?

Realistically, this suggests two possible avenues by which Mullen is likely to assemble a championship-level All-SEC player core. First, Mullen may find his All-Conference talent in one epic recruiting class. This would include the 6-8 he probably needs to meet the Template standard, but could include others who end up redshirting and emerging in later years. Or second, Mullen could assemble his All-SEC player nucleus from multiple recruiting classes. This route would feature players who emerge in the same season, even if they didn’t enter the program at the same time.

This of course, begs the question: Which of these paths is most historically viable? Also, how many All-SEC players does Coach Mullen need to find in each recruiting class (including transfers) to build a championship team? With acknowledgement to the possibility of blazing a new trail, the path of recent champions once again seems like the logical place to look for answers.

Reviewing data from the past decade’s SEC champion teams shows that 9 of 10 had at least 4 all-conference players from a single recruiting class. While all had at least 1 player from another class, none had more than one class with 4. In fact, in 7 of 10 cases, teams got at least twice as much all-conference production from their best class over any of the others on their rosters. And get this, in every single case, the best class was signed either 3 or 4 year prior to the championship season.

Apparently, championships are largely fueled by elite “talent clusters” from single recruiting classes, who reach their max potential together as veteran players. While some champion teams are better than others at supplementing these cluster classes with additional elite performers, one big class can serve as the foundation for a championship. The graphic below provides further context on this matter, showing how many All-SEC players championship teams featured from each recruiting year:

**Author’s note: For Juco and portal transfers, the original high school recruiting class year was used. As a measure of post-high-school development timelines, this provides the most accurate picture**

Notice that in 2010, 2013, and 2017, Auburn and Georgia won the conference largely through single-class All-SEC production. These three teams combined to produce 14 All-SEC players through their 3 talent cluster classes, but none had a single other class produce multiple All-SEC players during their title runs. It’s probably not a coincidence that 2 of these 3 teams also set the historic minimums for the Championship Template.

The 7 recent championship teams of Alabama and LSU on the other hand, each contained more than 1 class which produced multiple All-SEC players. At a minimum, this reflects a healthier, more-consistent annual production of All-SEC performers from the 2 programs. But, it could also represent a healthier annual injection of All-SEC talent through recruiting. That however, will be addressed later in this series. For now, the key is that the championship teams from these programs demonstrated a superior level of year-over-year All-SEC player production. If the single-class model of Georgia and Auburn is analogous to the Championship Template’s minimums, then the multi-class production of LSU and Alabama is similar to the Template’s ideal standard.

While the NCAA’s aforementioned eligibility extension could temporarily change the team-wide implications of this data, there is one positional detail that may remain constant. As mentioned earlier in this article, the OL position is disproportionately prone to both redshirting and later development than future All-SEC players at other positions. As a matter of fact, 7 of the previous 10 conference champion teams featured an All-SEC OL from a class prior to that of those teams’, cluster classes. So, in addition to bringing in at least 4 future All-SEC players from a single class, Coach Mullen also probably needs to find one of his eventual elite OLs during a prior recruiting year.

Why not just find repeat winners?

One thing to keep in mind though, is that the charts above don’t show how many eventual All-SEC players were on each champion team’s roster. Instead, they only show how many all-conference players earned recognition during the specific championship years. In actuality, there were others on those teams, still developing, who would go on to emerge in later seasons. Practically, this plays out as a conveyor belt where one class after another develops, peaks, then leaves. Unfortunately, it also shows how tight the window is for classes, even great ones to make their mark. Usually, it’s a matter of one big season, then they’re gone.

In some cases however, individual players break this pattern by earning All-SEC recognition in multiple years. Former Gator CB Vernon Hargreaves for example, enjoyed 3 consecutive 1^st Team All-SEC seasons before entering the NFL Draft. Guys like him are obviously a big deal, since they serve as one of the 6-8+ elite performers a coach needs to win the conference. Equally important though, is that they continue providing this level of play as more than one recruiting class has had a chance to reach their peaks. This means they not only count as a major success for their own class, but also as a major bonus to those classes in adjacent years. This makes such multi-year winners a huge boost to coaches as they look to assemble a championship-level talent nucleus.

The only problem is that it’s hard enough to find any All-SEC level players, let alone guys who can pull off the feat in more than year. Consider that Hargreaves was 1 of only 7 Gator football players to do so during the past decade. Of those 7, 2 were punters and a third was a placekicker. Such rarity isn’t unique to UF either, as only 23% of the decade’s All-SEC players ended up being recognized in multiple seasons.

Which positions repeat most often?

When those special few do break the mold to become multi-year winners, they are much more likely to play a few select positions. Punters are the most common, as half of All-SEC players at the position ended up winning in more than one season. QBs weren’t too far behind, as 40% of their award winners achieved multi-year accolades. After that though, it starts dropping off fast. So much so, that 10 of 13 positions had repeater rates of only 11%-26%. The lesson here, is simple. Don’t take dominant players for granted, because at most positions, encore performances are somewhat rare.

**Author’s Note: As stated in part 2, there were 423 total players, but the 432 above includes 9 players awarded at multiple positions**  

How often do All-SEC players leave early for the NFL?

At this point, I’m going to give you exactly 1 guess and to the count of 3 to figure out why these guys don’t win in multiple years more often. That’s right, it’s the allure of the NFL. Consider that over the last decade, 290 non-senior players have earned All-SEC recognition. Of those, 56 were players in their 1^st or 2^nd year out of high school, and therefore not yet eligible to be drafted. Of the 234 non-seniors who were eligible for the draft, 157 (67%) made the leap. So, the repeat-winner rate is low, because only about 1/3 of those awardees who have the option to leave, choose to come back for another run.

Which positions leave early most often?

As with other topics in this article, early NFL departure rates vary significantly from one position to the next. In this case however, the difference between positions is huge. Consider that 80% of non-senior AP and DT players ended up going pro early, while the rates were only around 10% for punters and kickers. Also note that the slower-developing positions of OL and QB are both in the bottom half of the list, while smaller-bodied offensive skill talent appears to leave early more often. This is likely another reflection of the skill guys depending more upon athletic ability that reaches its max potential sooner. OL and QB on the other hand, may need as much development as they can get, even as elites, before turning pro. The high rates at both DT and DE are also noteworthy, which likely reflects the premium value that NFL teams place on the positions.

**Author’s Note: This table also includes the aforementioned 9 players who were awarded at multiple positions. By showing up in more than one positional line, they slightly distort the overall totals. 6 of the 9 left early for the draft. **

3 Keys to Remember

When looking at all these timing issues as a single set of factors, one thing is abundantly clear: Time usually isn’t on the side of coaches seeking to build an SEC Champion football team. At all but a few positions, the best talent is prone to arrive, excel quickly, and in a lot of cases, leave early for the NFL. Winning the conference usually takes just the right simultaneous emergence of several All-SEC players at the right positions, who themselves must often join the team in a specific positional order. To top it all off, once a championship-level talent core is amassed, most of them are typically gone the following year.

While the simple answer to these challenges is likely some combination of continuous recruiting and development, that will be addressed more in part 5 of this series. For now, there are 3 key points that I hope fans will consider from this data moving forward:

• Evaluate recruiting classes by their cluster potential/production – I am fully aware that the recruiting world is already saturated with metrics by which to proclaim the success or failure of a recruiting class. But, the data from this project is clear. Teams that win the SEC are almost always led by recruiting classes that produce clusters of 4-6 All-SEC players in the same season. Whether you’re looking back on a class that’s leaving UF after 4 years, or if you’re speculating about the potential of a class yet to arrive, cluster production is an important consideration.
• Pay attention to development timelines – Likewise, when picturing when it might all come together for the Gators, make sure to consider redshirt rates, development timelines, and the other factors discussed in this article. And remember that the talent clusters on recent SEC champions didn’t emerge until they had been on campus for 3 to 4 years. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be excited about the immediate potential of an incoming recruiting class. Just understand that they probably won’t carry the load for the first few years.
• Count transfer portal additions to their original recruiting classes – Since development timelines are important, we need to start talking about transfer portal additions through the lens of their original recruiting classes. For example, consider recent UF transfer takes Justin Shorter, Brenton Cox, and Lorenzo Lingard. While all 3 are justifiably listed on 247 Sports as part of UF’s 2020 recruiting effort, they are actually class of 2018 recruits. Evaluating them by the original class provides a better factual context about their likely development trajectory.

Perhaps even more important though, is that this reveals a more accurate picture of the talent cluster potential for each class on the roster. In the case of these 3 transfers, they bolster a 2018 group which already features at least 1 current All-SEC lock in TE Kyle Pitts. If 1 or 2 of the transfers join him on the All-SEC team, the 2018 group could be within striking distance of producing a championship-level talent cluster. Cox and Shorter may need another year before they break through however, while Pitts will almost certainly be in the NFL next season. At the end of the day, that’s a perfect illustration of why timing makes it so difficult to build a championship team. For now, let’s hope they beat Alabama in a few weeks so that doesn’t become an issue.

What’s next?

Part 1 of this series established what teams typically need from All-SEC players to win the conference, while part 2 explored the dynamics of where such players are typically found. In this part 3, the timing factors of building an All-SEC player core were discussed, each through the context of assembling a championship team. In part 4 however, attention will be turned to a highly controversial issue. Using 10 years of All-SEC team data and the NFL draft records for those 549 player selections, we’ll shed new light on the perpetually white-hot “DBU” debate. Not stopping there though, every single position will be addressed in similar fashion, as we answer the question “Who’s the Real _ _ U?”. Until then, God bless & Go Gators!

 

***IMPORTANT NOTE FROM THE AUTHOR. PLEASE READ!!!***

This is by far the most ambitious research/writing project I’ve ever undertaken. Whether or not I pull it off, I’m swinging for the fence for one simple reason: I’m not playing for me this time. All of the writing proceeds from this series will be donated to a non-profit organization called First Coast Women’s Services. Located in Florida, FCWS provides 100% free care, support, and advocacy to young women who have experienced unplanned pregnancies. The women they serve face extremely difficult circumstances and the help they receive can both save and change lives.

My challenge to you, Gator Nation, is this: Will you please team up with me, change lives, and win a championship that matters? Thousands of people are going to read this article and together we can fully fund young moms to benefit from this program. Through the amazing generosity of Gator fans like you, we have already raised $1200 and set a new goal of $2000! With that in mind, if you’ve enjoyed reading the article, please click HERE to check out the GoFundMe page. I know this crazy year has been tough on many of you, but if you have some extra cash, please consider giving what you can to change a life. Thank you so much in advance.

God bless & Go Gators,

Bill Sikes