Gators look to continue march to SEC Championship with big win over LSU

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Florida-LSU has become quite the rivalry over the past 15 years.

It was our introduction to the Tebow jump pass in 2006. It was an analytics dream (or nightmare if you were a Gators fan) when Les Miles continuously went for it on fourth down in 2007. There was the bouncing fake field goal in 2010, the fake field goal for a TD in 2015 that was the winning score, and the Burrow pick-six in 2018.

And of course, there was the goal line stand in 2016 after the Hurricane Matthew game relocation.

As much as I’d like to say that will make this a good game – that you can just throw out the numbers when it’s a rivalry game – I just don’t think that’s the case in this one.

Florida is favored by 23 points and for good reason.

LSU’s offense is ranked 78th in the country at 5.3 yards per play. But that oversells the Tigers because its starting QB Myles Brennan has been out since the Missouri game. Prior to Brennan going out, the Tigers averaged 38.7 points per game but have averaged 22.8 since T.J. Finley took over.

Finley has had one good game against South Carolina, but the Tigers also ran for 276 yards in that one. As the running game has waned recently though, Finley has taken a major step back.

That would all be okay if the Tigers defense was at a normal level of play. We all marveled at the LSU offense’s ability to prop up an average defense all the way to a championship last year. Well, this year’s defense makes the 2019 Tigers defense look like the ’85 Bears.

The 2020 LSU defense is ranked 125th in FBS, giving up 6.9 yards per play. That includes giving up 9.7 yards per pass attempt, ranked 127th in FBS. That is absolutely horrific (for context, for all of the legitimate criticisms Gators fans have for their secondary, Florida is giving up 7.4 yards per pass attempt this year).

Kyle Trask and Dan Mullen have to be salivating coming into this game after watching the Alabama tape.

LSU plays a ton of man-to-man coverage. That theoretically allows them to get more pressure on the quarterback. But it also puts their defensive backs on an island.

So how do you take advantage of that? Well, Alabama did it by repeatedly crossing its receivers and trying to use at least the threat of a rub to cause the defensive backs to hesitate. On the above play, Alabama doesn’t even get the rub on the defensive back. It just turns out that Devonta Smith is fast enough that he can run right by the DB.

But the reason I show this is that Florida does a good job of isolating one-on-one coverage, but in a little bit different way.

Florida doesn’t have a Devonta Smith. What they do have is a quarterback who almost always makes the right read and a bunch of very good receivers who can take advantage of one-on-one coverage, especially if they’re given a little bit of a head start.

On this play, Jacob Copeland (#15) runs directly at the Georgia linebacker who is in man coverage against running back Nay’Quan Wright (#6). Copeland avoids making contact but clearly inhibits the linebacker’s path to Wright, making for an easy pitch-and-catch for Trask.

And you don’t just have to run by the defense to take advantage of man coverage either. Florida showed that last year against the Tigers.

On this play, LSU’s safety is in the center of the field. But at the snap, he shades over towards Kyle Pitts and the two receivers at the top. Even though Pitts doesn’t go out in the route, this prevents the safety from getting over to help his corner. That sets up an easy back-shoulder throw to Van Jefferson.

Florida ran this play, from this formation, three straight times to open the second half. It led to two back-shoulder throws and a slant to Jefferson. When LSU switched to a zone defense with two deep safeties to help its defensive backs, Florida then ran the ball.

The problem is when you have an inexperienced defensive backfield like LSU has and when you teach man-to-man almost exclusively, switching to zone schemes is bound to lead to miscommunications.

On this play, it looks like everyone on the LSU defense is playing man-to-man coverage except for Derek Stingley (#24), who drops back to help guard John Metchie (#8), which allows Jahleel Billingsley (#19) to run WIDE open for the touchdown.

I don’t know whether Stingley was freelancing or didn’t know what the LSU defensive call was. It’s just to point out that when LSU decided to adjust its defensive scheme, it led to a blown coverage.

And if LSU is playing man-to-man coverage to get to the QB, that isn’t proving to be all that successful. The Tigers have 18 sacks this season, or 2.3 sacks per game. That has led to just six interceptions while giving up that gaudy 9.7 yards per pass attempt.

Eight of those sacks have come from Andre Anthony and B.J. Ojulari (four each), who both play linebacker. Safety Jacoby Stevens is next at 2.5 sacks. What this indicates is that to get to the QB, LSU has to blitz.

And blitzing against QBs who can read defenses like Kyle Trask is a recipe for disaster. On second and third downs of seven yards or more (situations where blitzes are common), Trask has completed 69 percent of his passes for 12.5 yards per attempt and 20.5 percent explosive plays. That’s compared to 10.1 yards per attempt and 16.5 percent explosive plays in all situations.

If LSU keeps playing the way they normally play, expect Trask to hit quite a few explosive plays down the field.

Takeaway

So when we look at LSU, what we see is an offense that has regressed under T.J. Finley and was just okay under Myles Brennan (6.3 yards per play). We also have a team that has seen the departures of its top-two receivers in Terrace Marshall (48 catches) and Arik Gilbert (35 catches) due to opt-outs.

We have a QB in Finley who only has one good game (against South Carolina) where he threw the ball 21 times compared to 54 rushing attempts. Even if you include that game, his QB rating of 115.9 is 77 points worse than Kyle Trask’s.

Then you go to the defensive side of the ball and LSU’s pass defense is an absolute dumpster fire against a QB who is putting the finishing touches on a Heisman-worthy campaign. Trask has put up at least three touchdowns in every game this season and has done that against far better defenses than this.

There’s this little voice in my head that is nagging me, trying to convince me that LSU always plays Florida close. That was certainly true when Florida was down, still playing superior LSU teams tough.

But neither team has had an elite offense until last season, when LSU was able to win by 14 points despite Florida putting up a pretty good fight. I don’t think Florida’s offense is quite what LSU’s was last year, but LSU’s is nowhere even close to what the Gators brought to Baton Rouge last year (even if we weren’t quite sure what we had in Kyle Trask at the time).

Just like the previous four games, Florida is the vastly superior team on-paper. But the Gators have a proclivity to take their foot off the gas when they get ahead. That’s really the only reason to hesitate on this one is if you’re gambling.

23 points is a lot. But Kyree Campbell tweeting out that he remembered LSU fans taunting the Gators last year seals it for me. It can be hard to get up for Vanderbilt or Kentucky. Some of these players weren’t even alive the last time Florida/Tennessee was really a relevant rivalry.

But LSU….Florida players have experienced this rivalry. Kyle Trask was there in 2016 when the Gators clinched the SEC East and trotted out the skeleton dog. They also remember how close they were last year (yes, Tyrie Cleveland is still being held), only to let LSU pull away at the end.

This isn’t the defending national champions. Virtually none of those players are left. But LSU is a rivalry that these Gators should get up for.

I think they will, and this time, I don’t think they’ll let up in the second half.

Florida (-23) wins big, 52-7.

Predictions this year: 8-1 straight up, 5-4 against the spread.

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