After close losses to LSU in 2019 and Alabama in 2020, how close is Florida to a title?

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“We played the last two national champions as closely as anyone.”

I don’t like moral victories. Certainly, as a Florida fan, just competing with LSU and Alabama the past two seasons isn’t good enough. But three years ago the Gators didn’t have a prayer of competing with the eventual national champion, so there’s no doubt that progress is being made.

But how close is that progress to actually taking Florida to the College Football Playoff?

Well, we now have seven seasons worth of playoff data to look at. With that, some trends have emerged. Some of them are not surprising, and some of them – quite frankly – I think give us some insights to where the Gators need to improve to take that next step.

The X’s and O’s

The first thing to do is identify the outliers. Obviously Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State have been in the playoffs a lot. But teams like Oregon, Florida State, Michigan State, Washington, Georgia and LSU have only been there once.

The true outlier is Michigan State. Not only do the Spartans not recruit even close to the levels of the other teams on that list, but they didn’t rank particularly well against FBS teams either on offense or defense (71st in yards per play and 45th in yards per play allowed). What they did do was have fantastic luck in a lot of close games, going 6-1 in one-score games, including 4-0 against ranked opponents.

Other than that, teams almost always have one stand-out unit.

LSU had the second ranked offense (by yards per play) in 2019 and was able to win the title even with the 29th ranked defense. Oklahoma had defenses that ranked 76th in 2017 and 95th in 2018, but was able to offset that with the number one offense both years.

But, if we look at the 28 teams who have made the playoff in aggregate, it becomes pretty obvious that you normally need to excel on both sides of the ball.

Average yards per play rankings for various categories of playoff teams. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

The data says that you are likely going to need a top-20 offense and a top-25 defense to make the playoff. That fits with our observations, as Florida had a really good offense this season but missed the playoff because of a putrid defense. Georgia was the opposite, with a pedestrian offense but a top-10 defense in 2020.

However, there is a penalty for playing in the SEC.

You need nearly a top-10 offense and defense to make the playoff in the SEC, and while that is skewed by Alabama, it’s actually skewed up on the offensive side of the ball. Georgia and LSU – the only other SEC teams to make it – have both sported top-10 offenses in those seasons. Georgia also had a top-10 defense to go with it.

I think this suggests that a top-10 offense is going to be the minimum requirement to make the playoff in the SEC, a daunting task considering Florida’s offense only ranked 7th last season in yards per play, even with as good as it was. But even still, a serviceable defense – similar to LSU’s 29th ranked defense in 2019 – likely would have made the Gators a contender. Instead Florida ended the year ranked 85th on that side of the ball.

If – and that’s a big if – Florida can retain its level of offensive firepower in 2021, I still doubt the ability of the Gators to make the playoff. That’s because in Todd Grantham’s three seasons at the helm, the Gators have ranked 37th, 21st and 85th in yards per play allowed.

13 of the 28 teams to make the playoff have had a top-10 offense. 11 of the 28 playoff teams have had a top-10 defense. Only three teams have done both in the same season though, which means there’s some room for error if you can excel on one side of the ball.

That’s great for Florida, who will have to accomplish that on offense since Grantham hasn’t shown any signs of being able to get to that level.

The Jimmy’s and the Joe’s

You knew we wouldn’t have this discussion without visiting recruiting.

That’s not the only reason that Ohio State, Alabama and Clemson have dominated the playoff picture, but it’s a big part of it. And it’s a big part of why the SEC is so difficult to navigate.

Recruiting metrics for playoff teams from 2014-2020. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

So how does Florida stack up? Well, not great.

The Gators average recruiting ranking was 10.8 in 2020, below the average for playoff teams and well below those of finalists and winners. It was also well below what is necessary for SEC teams not named Alabama.

The Gators had four 5-star recruits on the roster last season (and yes, that includes transfers for everybody who always yells at me about not including those in recruiting numbers). That total isn’t even close to the 8.8 average 5-stars for playoff teams and the 9.0 5-stars for non-Alabama SEC playoff teams (and no, those numbers don’t include transfers).

And the Gators had 16 top-100 recruits on the 2020 roster including transfers, far below the 23.5 for all playoff teams and the 21.0 for non-Alabama SEC playoff teams.

Here’s the reality. Teams like Michigan State (average ranking of 30.0) and Washington (27.8) can make it every once in a while. But it took a flubbed punt on the final play that MSU returned for a TD against Michigan and infighting at Ohio State that had Cardale Jones and Ezekiel Elliott declaring for the draft and questioning the play calling after the game to get the Spartans into the playoff.

Can that stuff happen? Sure.

But it’s less likely to happen in the SEC because you don’t just have to play Michigan and Ohio State. You have to play Alabama and Georgia. And you also have to play Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M.

SEC wins (4-year total) vs. National Recruiting Ranking four years prior. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

This chart shows that reality. It’s a plot of SEC wins over 4-year periods from 2014-2020 against national recruiting ranking. The take-home is pretty simple. Top-5 classes are necessary to approach that 30-win total (7-8 wins annually). There isn’t anybody ranked 5-10th in recruiting who exceeded 25 wins. And there’s only five teams with an average recruiting ranking of 10-plus that exceeded 20 wins (5 per season).

That should be really sobering. The reason the SEC recruiting averages are so high for the playoff is because they’re required to be that high just to be successful in the conference.

Takeaway

Florida doesn’t seem that far away from reaching the playoff, especially considering the close losses to LSU and Alabama the last two seasons.

But the LSU game in 2020 is exactly why the SEC is so difficult to navigate. The Tigers weren’t a great team, but were able to put together a great performance at a time that Florida was caught in a poor performance.

Shoe tossing aside, those sorts of games happen and take their toll on contenders who don’t have the talent level of the elites in the conference. It’s not a coincidence that the two teams not named Alabama to make the playoff are Georgia and LSU, the next best recruiters.

Florida doesn’t look to be making a whole lot of headway in that regard in 2021 either. The Gators are currently ranked 12th in this upcoming class and likely will fall behind Michigan and North Carolina on signing day.

Perhaps you might look at the transfer portal for salvation. Certainly the addition of 5-star Clemson transfer Demarkcus Bowman is going to help, right?

I’m sure it will. But if we add Bowman to Florida’s totals, they will have six 5-stars in 2021, well below the 9 that has been necessary for non-Bama SEC teams. They will have 19 top-100 players, below the 21 necessary to reach that level as well. And with a 14th place finish in 2021, the Gators average ranking of the past four recruiting classes will be at 11.5, well below what other playoff teams have needed.

It’s tempting to look at a 6-point loss to Alabama in 2020 and a 14-point loss to LSU in 2019 and think that the Gators are just a player or two away. That just isn’t the case. Florida is likely 6-7 top-100 players away from truly competing among the elite.

Can Dan Mullen and staff develop and coach the players they currently have to the playoff? Sure, it’s possible.

But there’s a reason why the Gators are +4000 to win it all in Vegas, and that those odds are worse than Alabama (+300), Georgia (+1000), LSU (+2500) and Texas A&M (+3300).

Gamblers know that stars matter too.

20/20 Hindsight

In August, I wasn’t sure that there was going to be a college football season.

Nick Knudsen had just joined Read and Reaction and we started brainstorming about what we were going to do should the season get canceled to try and help our fellow college football fanatics make it through the withdrawl.

Well, we did have a college football season (thank goodness), but the panic of thinking we wouldn’t have one birthed the idea that we’re launching right now: a new podcast called 20/20 Hindsight.

The name comes from us all wanting to leave the year 2020 in the rear view mirror, but also because the idea of the podcast is to look back at old college football games and relive them in all their glory.

Remember when Brent Musburger opened up a telecast yelling “We are coming to you LIVE!” and we knew it was a big game? Or how about when Northwestern went into South Bend as a 28-point underdog in 1995 and ended the season playing in the Rose Bowl?

Or how about when Jarvis Moss extended as far as he could to block South Carolina’s Ryan Succup’s game-winning field goal attempt in 2006?

Speaking of that game, did you remember that Florida blocked not just the final field goal and an extra point, but also had a blocked kick earlier in the game? Did you remember that Chris Leak’s running the ball was key to the win? Did you remember that Steve Spurrier called a dagger for the win that was called back on a false start?

Check out all that and more with the debut episode of 20/20 Hindsight! We start with Episode 1, which recaps that very 2006 South Carolina/Florida matchup, known affectionately as the Gamecock block.

You can catch it at the link on YouTube or download on iTunes. Please subscribe on YouTube, rate and review on iTunes and help us as we try to build this out beyond just Florida football!

College Football is special because of the moments and because of the friends. It’s being able to troll your buddy at work about Georgia’s fake field goal with Justin Fields or second-and-26. It’s being able to call that buddy you were in the stands with when a moment occurred or knowing exactly where you were when something happened to your team.

Hopefully you get some of that from Nick and I when you tune in to listen to 20/20 Hindsight!