Game Preview: Florida looks to establish itself on defense against FAU

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It’s game week!

And while a matchup against old punching bag Willie Taggart at his new Florida Atlantic location may not be as exciting as Georgia fans having their championship hopes dashed by Clemson in the opening week, a full Swamp and a fresh start after the three straight losses to end 2020 is going to be a welcome sight.

247Sports released their composite roster talent rankings this week, and the Gators come in 7th overall. The Owls rank 69th on the same list, so the Gators should have a significant advantage on the field.

But 69th is not an FCS opponent. While FAU has struggled at times recently (3-9 in 2014, 2015 and 2015), they’ve also experienced some highs as well (11-3 in 2017 and 2019). If Florida doesn’t take them seriously, the Owls do have the players to make Florida fans nervous.

So what are the keys to the game, and is Florida really deserving of being a 24.5-point favorite?

Key 1: N’Kosi Perry vs. Emory Jones

Even casual Gators fans have been waiting to see what Emory Jones can do. But if the name of Florida Atlantic’s startering QB – N’Kosi Perry – sounds familiar, it should. Perry started extensively at Miami under both Mark Richt and Manny Diaz and then transferred to FAU.

Perry wasn’t great at Miami, but he was serviceable. His QB rating for his career (119.9) is below average, as was his yards per attempt (6.3). I remembered him as more of a runner, but he only averaged 2.0 yards per rush in his career.

Perhaps more importantly for this particular game, he really, really struggled on the road in his career with the Hurricanes.

He only really got big playing time in three games. He was okay against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech in 2018 and absolutely terrible against Pittsburgh in 2019. Virginia Tech is a hostile environment, but neither Georgia Tech or Pitt would qualify. But the takeaway is that Perry’s top end on the road has been his average overall play, and his bottom end on the road has been really, really bad.

As for the Florida side, Emory Jones is the runner I thought Perry was before I looked at his stats, averaging 5.6 yards per rush on 92 carries at Florida, most of which the defense has known he would run the ball.

That is really significant, as it offsets any limitations he may have in the passing game.

Think about it this way. If Florida is guaranteed six yards on first down, the defense is going to have to bring up a safety to help in the run game. In turn, that will simplify Jones’ reads. Kyle Trask had to look off safeties and fit the ball into tight spots last year because the Gators couldn’t run the ball at all. By himself, Jones is a big enough threat in the run game that he shouldn’t have to show near the level of mastery of the offense that Trask showed last year to be successful.

But it’s not like Jones is a freshman who’s just going to be asked to make one read and take off. He has shown – albeit in limited action – that he isn’t going to be intimidated by big moments. You don’t come in against Auburn and do this when you were just the third stringer a few weeks earlier without having some ability.

Jones has completed 64 percent of his throws for 7.1 yards per attempt. The completion percentage is above average. The yards per attempt is just slightly below average. The result is a QB who can be well above average if he just replicates exactly what he’s already shown.

I could get into more detail about Jones (and may later in the week). But the reality is that Perry was well below average at Miami. Jones has been above average thus far at Florida. Without even factoring in the difference in teammates, this one is an easy call.

Advantage: Florida

Key 2: FAU’s Secondary vs. “DBU”

I put “DBU” in quotes in the heading there because Florida’s secondary last season was anything but. But perhaps there is addition by subtraction as we’ve been hearing about how players were out for themselves last season and so perhaps that explains away some of the horrible play.

The injury to Jaydon Hill certainly doesn’t help. But the additions of transfers Jadarrius Perkins and Elijah Blades certainly add depth to the position. Kaiir Elam is expected to be a first round pick next year, but the success of the secondary in 2021 is going to come down to true freshman Jason Marshall and sophomore Tre’vez Johnson.

The STAR position is critical to Todd Grantham’s defense because it requires someone who can cover and fill gaps against the run. If you can’t do both, you’re going to get exposed somewhere. Florida got exposed there a lot in 2020.

But Marshall is critical as well because he has the potential to be a lock-down guy just like Elam. You can win a bunch of games if you can take away the two best receivers on the field with one-on-one coverage and help players like Johnson with double-teams.

On the FAU side, they actually have a ton coming back from a defense that ranked 21st overall in yards per play and 13th in yards per pass allowed in 2020. Their best pass rusher – Leighton McCarthy – is gone to the NFL so they are going to rely on Jaylen Joyner and a bunch of unknowns to get to Jones.

But if you look at the FAU depth chart from last year, what you see is a plethora of DBs who seem to be able to also double as safeties. That gives them positional flexibility that can really pay off if the offense doesn’t have skill players who can take the top off of a defense.

They also have a bunch of “super seniors” coming back – guys who were granted an extra year of eligibility due to COVID-19. Zyon Gilbert, Korel Smith, Diashun Moss and Ashton McNeal all have significant program and on-field experience that should help the Owls if this one turns into a game decided through the air.

For reasons I described in the QB section, I’m not sure FAU has the firepower to get into a battle through the air, but it is the one place where they have a significant advantage. Florida couldn’t stop anyone through the air last season, but FAU could. FAU has a bunch of players coming back. Until proven differently on Saturday, this is an advantage for the visitors.

Advantage: FAU

Coaching

I’m the guy who wrote an article in 2017 before any games were played that the Gators won the coaching search when they got Dan Mullen and Florida State got Willie Taggart.

But never in my wildest dreams did I imagine Taggart wouldn’t last two full seasons at FSU and the enduring image of his tenure there would be trying to talk Chauncey Gardner-Johnson from driving the Gators flag into midfield at Ron Zook Field.

The reason I didn’t expect Taggart to win consistently is that he was hailed as an offensive coach – the architect of “lethal simplicity” – who had transformed the offenses he had taken over. But the reality was in his first year taking over, he either had zero effect or a negative effect on his teams’ offenses. The only good offenses he presided over were quarterbacked by Quinton Flowers, a QB with a profile much more like Emory Jones (8.3 yards per attempt, 6.1 yards per rush) than N’Kosi Perry.

Taggart again had the opportunity to show what he could do on offense last season. Offenses at FAU under Lane Kiffin had placed 10th, 18th and 54th in yards per play average in 2017, 2018 and 2019. Kiffin had recruited pretty well for FAU and Taggart didn’t have to deal with any of the games like the type he’s about to get into with the Gators because of COVID.

But the Owl’s offense immediately dropped to 103rd in yards per play average, including 120th in yards per pass. He got terrible QB play from starter Nick Tronti and backup Javion Posey. The difference was that Posey ran for 6.9 yards per rush, exactly the kind of QB that Taggart had in Flowers.

Posey ran for 272 yards total (on 37 carries) against FIU and UMass in two wins where Tronti saw limited time. The two players split reps in a loss against Georgia Southern and then Tronti took back over in losses against Southern Miss and Memphis.

The point is that Taggart had two guys who could throw at equivalent levels (107.1 QB rating for Tronti, 106.0 for Posey), but one who ran the ball much more effectively (6.9 yards per rush for Posey vs. 2.0 for Tronti), yet still decided to go with his Tronti for whatever reason.

Compare that to Dan Mullen. With Feleipe Franks running the offense in 2018, the Gators ran the ball 59 percent of the time. In 2019 with Kyle Trask taking over, the Gators ran the ball 46 percent of the time (it was much closer to 2018 before Franks went out). And in 2020, the Gators ran the ball only 44 percent of the time.

We’ve heard a lot about a “Dan Mullen QB”, but the truth is that his three seasons at Florida have proven that he doesn’t have a type of QB. But perhaps what Willie Taggart’s record suggests is that he does, in fact, have a type of QB.

But in choosing N’Kosi Perry to start (2.0 yards per rush), he’s going away from that concept. I don’t expect Dan Mullen to shy away from featuring Emory Jones and becoming much more run oriented.

Advantage: Florida

The Pick

The only reason this one is tough is because of the point spread.

I fully expect Florida to win and to win big. But I have to admit that I’m not sure exactly what to expect from the Gators defense. Is it a unit that could give up 17 points to this FAU squad, especially considering all of the youth on that side of the ball? Sure.

But is it also possible that the defense is sick and tired of hearing about how they got pushed around and embarrassed last year and comes out with something to prove? I think that’s probably more likely.

The offense isn’t going to average 40 points per game in 2021. Dan Mullen’s teams have historically averaged somewhere between 32-35 points per game, and that’s probably what we’re getting this season.

I already expressed my doubt in Perry, but there’s another reason to bet against FAU in this one: its wide receivers. The Owls replaced just about every receiver they had from the end of Kiffin’s tenure in 2019 and had to bring in transfers Damian Alloway from UCLA and T.J. Chase from Clemson. Alloway didn’t play and only has one career catch. Chase had 23 catches last year after making 25 in his three years at Clemson.

Those guys aren’t going to be able to beat one-on-one coverage consistently. And Perry isn’t consistent enough that he’ll be able to take advantage even if Florida does have a couple of breakdowns in coverage as the young guys make mistakes.

Florida’s defense was really poor at forcing turnovers last season. You know that’s been an area of emphasis for Todd Grantham this offseason, who’s reputation is going for the big play to turn the tide.

So that’s what I think happens in this one. The Gators force a couple of turnovers. Emory Jones is okay through the air, but not great. But the ability of Jones to run helps the Gators put a couple of early touchdowns with Anthony Richardson coming in to ignite the crowd and put the finishing touches on the game to push past the spread.

The Pick: Florida wins, 45-10 (-24.5).

For the love of the game

My brother-in-law is a good man. But he doesn’t get how another grown man can be as interested in sports as I am. I suspect my Dad feels the same way about me when he talks about my “little blog” and wonders why I don’t just focus on the engineering skills I have learned and honed over the years.

I have to admit, there are times that I have trouble describing why I’m wired this way. I mean, shouldn’t there be more important things I could put my energy towards? Am I wasting my time being this invested in what amounts to a game?

But then I have a week like this one.

I’ve been feeling drained and run-down lately, and quite honestly, a little bit depressed. We had our fourth child in February, and while he’s wonderful, he also has completely changed the dynamics of our home. I then came down with COVID in March and I’m turning 40 soon, which makes you start to reflect.

But my 9-year old son Hugh is getting serious about baseball. He’s latched-on hard core to Shohei Ohtani, the Los Angeles Angels player who doubles as one of the best hitters and best pitchers in baseball.

So I looked and the closest Ohtani was going to get to us in Philadelphia was this past week when the Angels came to play the Orioles. I had originally bought tickets for a Thursday afternoon game, but after the Angels announced Ohtani would start on Wednesday night, we picked up tickets for that game too and went down a day early to catch both games.

That experience exemplifies why I’m addicted to sports.

Hugh ate his weight in cotton candy, funnel cakes and ice cream. He got to stay up way later than we normally let him. He got to spend time with me, just the two of us, in a world where he’s usually getting a quarter of my time in the best of circumstances. And I got an experience with my boy that I know he’ll remember when I’m not around anymore.

So it was great that we got to see Ohtani pitch on Wednesday. It was great that he gave us a home run to lead off the game on Thursday. But he also gave us the impetus to stop and have an experience with each other that often we’re too busy to prioritize.

I’m sure a lot of you can say the same thing about Gators games. I obviously care way too much about 18-22 year olds that I don’t know just because they happen to be wearing the colors of a school I last went to 16 years ago.

But more than anything, it’s that every fall, these games are a marker to prioritize the experiences that often evade us due to day-to-day life. Getting texts from my brother asking what I’m going to write about. Reaching out to friends for their opinions about the program when I probably wouldn’t text or call them just to see how they’re doing. Getting to see my family when I come down for a game.

So enjoy the games folks. But make sure it’s a marker to prioritize spending time with the people you want to remember those experiences when you’re gone.

Kabul Nightmare

It wasn’t lost on me that while I was enjoying a ball game with my son, news of the marines and other servicemen and women killed in the terrorist attack in Kabul was breaking.

There’s going to be plenty of time for people far more versed in foreign policy to debate who did things that were right or wrong.

But we’re seeing what life can be like in places not like the West in the chaos that has engulfed Afghanistan. It’s not a coincidence that the order brought about by American power goes away the minute that power is removed.

Whether you agree with the policies or not is irrelevant. The fact that we have the ability to debate about that order on Twitter instead of wondering whether our kids are going to be stolen from us, raped and killed is proof that we value it even if we simultaneously take it for granted.

But that order has a cost. I’m not talking about American’s standing in the world or the geopolitical implications of America’s foreign policy decisions. What I’m talking about is moms, dads, wifes, husbands, sons and daughters who are grieving the inability to do something as simple as attend a baseball game on a Thursday afternoon.

I wasn’t brave enough to go into the military. Because of that, I have to allow someone else to stand in the gap who is brave enough to enable the comfortable life I lead. I’m thankful that people volunteer to do just that.

Please take some time to pray for their families. Their names are provided below if you’d like to do so too. You can get more information about each of them here.

• Marine Corps Lance Cpl. David Espinoza – 20, Rio Bravo, Texas
• Sgt. Nicole Gee – 23, Roseville, California
• Marine Corps Staff Sgt. Taylor Hoover – 31, Utah
• Army Staff Sgt. Ryan Knauss – 23, Knoxville, Tennessee
• Marine Corps Cpl. Hunter Lopez – 22, Riverside, California
• Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Rylee McCollum – 20, Jackson, Wyoming
• Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Dylan R. Merola – 20, Rancho Cucamonga, California
• Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Kareem Nikoui – 20, Norco, California
• Marine Corps Sgt. Johanny Rosario – 25, Lawrence, Massachusetts
• Marine Corps Cpl. Humberto Sanchez – 22, Logansport, Indiana
• Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Jared Schmitz – 20, Wentzville, Missouri
• Navy Hospital Corpsman Max Soviak – 22, Berlin Heights, Ohio
• Marine Corps Cpl. Daegan William-Tyeler Page – 23, Omaha, Nebraska