South Florida got absolutely waxed by NC State last weekend, with a 45-0 loss that wasn’t even really that close.
The Bulls gave up 525 yards, including 293 on the ground. The Wolfpack averaged 7.3 yards per rush while also averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt. Those are elite-level numbers.
Now, I don’t think NC State is really that good. Their QB – Devin Leary – was pretty good last season (QB Rating of 148.3) as they went 8-4 so it’s not as if they are chopped liver. But that 8-4 was belied by the fact that they averaged 30.2 points per game and gave up 29.2, indicating they were more of a .500-level team.
So what we really have is a team on-par with the Missouri’s or South Carolina’s of the world (they lost to Kentucky by 2 in a bowl game last year) that just blew USF out of the water. There just isn’t any excuse for Florida not to do the same.
So what are the keys to the game, and what should we look for once the game gets out of hand?
South Florida Stats
The stats for USF are really ugly.
Last season, they ranked 106th on offense and 100th on defense in yards per play. The only team they beat in 2020 was the Citadel, and they lost by a combined score of 80-7 to the two ranked teams they played (Notre Dame and Cincinnati).
Jordan McCloud was the starting QB in 2020, but he transferred to Arizona and Cade Fortin – a UNC transfer – was named the starter last week against NC State. Fortin then proceeded to put up one of the ugliest stat lines you’ll ever see for a QB, completing 35 percent of his passes for 2.1 yards per attempt and an interception.
Fortin was lifted for Timmy McClain, who actually performed decently in his time (9.7 yards per attempt and 4.0 yards per rush), but Fortin was reinserted into the game after McClain threw two interceptions.
The moral of the story is that while Florida may have a QB controversy on its hands because Anthony Richardson played so well against FAU, USF may have a QB controversy on its hands because neither guy has played well enough to justify giving either of them all that much rope.
If USF starts Fortin, they just have no chance. He has completed 46.2 percent of his throws in his career (93 attempts now) for 5.0 yards per attempt. He does add some value in the running game, rushing for 6.0 yards per attempt on 23 carries in his career.
McClain is a freshman so he doesn’t have a college track record, but his high school stats show a player who completed 65 percent of his throws at 9.7 yards per attempt. That isn’t a guy who’s chucking the ball way down the field, but it is so much better than Fortin that I hope the Bulls don’t decide to hand him the reins.
Even if McClain starts and plays the game of his life though, that isn’t going to help the USF defense. As I mentioned, that side of the ball was terrible in 2020 and doesn’t look to be any better in 2021.
The Gators overpowered FAU last weekend and the offensive line looked to be a strength of the team. NC State was really bad (105th) in yards per rush attempt last season, so the fact that they were able to dominate (7.3 yards per rush) indicates that Florida should be able to run at will against the Bulls.
Add to that Emory Jones undoubtedly wanting to redeem himself for his play against FAU, and the continued growth of Anthony Richardson, and this one is going to be a runaway.
I got burned last week picking Florida as a 24-point favorite against FAU. But Florida is “only” a 28.5 point favorite against USF and I’m not sure the Bulls would get within three touchdowns of FAU. That means I’m taking the Gators, and I’m taking them big.
Florida wins, 45-10 (-28.5).
Record this season: 1-0 straight up, 0-1 ATS
Things to look for
So Florida should win this one easy. What then, should fans be looking for when the Gators take the field against the Bulls?
Opponent’s QB Running Game
Both Fortin and McClain run the ball pretty well. While I didn’t think Florida did a great job on defense against N’Kosi Perry and FAU, there’s no doubt that they were able to hold up against the QB run in the game. Perry ran 10 times for -19 yards, including 6 sacks, while the Wildcat QB Javion Posey ran 4 times for -5 yards.
This suggests that Florida’s defense – in addition to getting into the backfield for the sacks – didn’t compromise its gaps while rushing the QB. Zachary Carter had the stats with three sacks, but it was more how he achieved those sacks that impressed me.
Look at those two plays. Carter wins one-on-one matchups convincingly to get to the QB, and he does it both from the outside and the inside. This is going to be a nightmare for opposing offenses, as Carter is going to be able to play outside on running downs, but then slide inside passing downs.
Imagine a defensive line consisting of Carter, Gervon Dexter, Brenton Cox and Khris Bogle with Mohamoud Diabate potentially coming on a blitz. Whoa!
Decision-making in the QB run game
The offense felt different when Anthony Richardson was in the game than when Emory Jones was in last week against FAU.
But other than the one pass to Ja’markis Weston, it wasn’t as though Richardson was really that much better through the air. If you eliminate the one big run for Richardson, he would have had very similar rushing numbers to Jones.
Now obviously you can’t eliminate those plays, but I think it’s worth highlighting how Jones could have had one of those big plays had he just trusted his read and been more decisive.
What you see in the big play for Richardson is the tight end pulling around the formation, Richardson reading the defensive end crashing towards the running back, and then Richardson pulling the ball and following the tight end who now serves as a lead blocker. The entire action was quick and decisive, which is why Richardson was able to take the run to the house.
Jones had the exact same opportunity earlier in the game. The formation is different with a running back pulling across the formation, but the defensive end crashes and Jones could have run around the edge in the exact same way that Richardson did. Instead, he handed the ball off to his back who ran into the teeth of the defense.
You typically see a play like this and just sort of shrug your shoulders, but the big play was there for Jones. Richardson was decisive and was able to take advantage. If Jones can be more decisive, those opportunities will be there for him as well.
Moon at inside linebacker
They mentioned on the telecast that Jeremiah Moon was playing some at inside linebacker. When asked about it, they said Todd Grantham said it was about finding a way to get their best 11 players on the field on defense.
But Moon being at inside linebacker says a few things. First, it says that the development of Derek Wingo and Ty’Ron Hopper may not be going as fast as some of us might like. I think it also says that they see Mohamoud Diabate as a definite outside linebacker. And I think it’s also an acknowledgement that Ventrell Miller has some limitations.
Moon had some good moments in the game, particularly against the running game.
On this play you can see Moon filling his gap, taking on the pulling tight end and blowing up the play. This seems like an insignificant thing, but Florida’s linebackers in 2020 were often caught trying to sneak to the side of these sorts of blocks. That was out of necessity because they just weren’t very big. Moon brings a size to the position – and thus, an ability to take on these blocks correctly – that Florida is going to need.
But I’m going to have to see Moon pick up a running back in the flat before I’m willing to say that this is going to be a success. Moon was rotated at linebacker in 2017 because of weaknesses that he had in coverage. He then bulked up to play on the defensive line and the question is going to be whether those coverage weaknesses are something that can be exploited.
Were I USF, I would immediately put him in a position to have to cover a running back out of the backfield. David Reese was a great linebacker for Florida for multiple years, but the one thing you could do to him was compromise him in coverage. I suspect teams will be able to do that to Moon as well.
Injuries
Florida needs to go into the game against Alabama as close to full strength as it can. I didn’t see one area on the field where the Gators can really sustain an injury and not have it impact the game plan next week.
That’s one of the places where the recruiting really shows up, as there just isn’t an obvious place where you would think depth just isn’t an issue. Even at QB, I know it raised a few eyebrows when Anthony Richardson went down on the Hail Mary to end the half. Yes, Richardson is one of the most explosive leapers that the team has, but he’s also extraordinarily valuable even if Emory Jones is playing well because he’s the only other QB on the roster who has taken live snaps.
Perhaps the one place Florida could sustain an injury is at defensive tackle, but that’s only because the Gators just recently brought in Tyrone Truesdell to add depth to that position.
USF doesn’t stand much of a chance this weekend. I know lots of fans want to see Mullen light up the scoreboard. I know we want to see the Gators run away with this one big. That’s what I’ve picked above. But if it comes down to choosing between getting out of the game healthy versus making fans happy with a big(ger) win, I know which one I’d choose.
Get ready for ‘Bama.
