Game Preview: The Gator Standard gets measured against the SEC Standard this Saturday against Alabama

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It’s finally here.

In what seems like an eternity since the three losses to end last season, an uneventful signing day, no spring game and a closed fall camp, we’ve gotten a little bit of a look at our Gators the last two weeks. But those were just appetizers; little morsels giving us a little bit of information – and a little bit of hope – before the true test comes to town.

Alabama.

The Crimson Tide are the benchmark not just for the SEC, but for all of college football. They have won 6 of the past 12 national championships along with 7 SEC Championships. That’s the kind of dominance we thought we were getting with Urban Meyer after the 2008 season and then realized how fleeting it can be after the Gators lost to Alabama in the 2009 SEC Championship.

That loss sent Florida out into the wilderness for a decade while Alabama turned into the standard everyone measures themselves against.

Well, it’s measuring time. Florida got as close to the Tide as anyone last season, losing by 6 points in the SEC Championship Game. The players are different, but this is why you come to a program like Florida and a conference like the SEC.

As the Nature Boy says, “to be the man, you gotta beat the man.” Well, “the man” is coming to the Swamp on Saturday night and I….can’t….wait.

For the love of God, only rush 4 – Florida Edition

Todd Grantham loves to blitz. He’s known for bringing pressure from different areas on the field to confuse the QB. Sometimes that works against young QBs. In fact, Grantham’s reputation is that his defenses struggle against experienced QBs but that he drives inexperienced ones crazy and has them feeling footsteps.

So he should blitz against Bryce Young since he’s an inexperienced QB, right? Well, that’s about the worst thing he can do.

There are the Florida roster reasons he shouldn’t blitz that much. First off, he has guys on the front four who should be able to win one-on-one battles, even against the Alabama offensive line. Zachary Carter specifically has been a nightmare for opposing offensive lines thus far in 2021.

On this play, Carter is on the inside at a defensive tackle position. He’s too quick for the guard and guesses correctly that the play is going to the left side of the offensive line. Whether he’s been lined up inside or outside, Carter has been the one Gators defensive lineman who has been able to consistently win one-on-one battles.

That’s a huge key to the game, because if you don’t win one-on-ones up front, you have to blitz.

The second reason he shouldn’t blitz is that Florida just isn’t very good at it.

On this play, USF motions its fullback to the bottom of the screen in the flat (you can’t see it in the gif). Safety Rashad Torrence (#22) heads down to pick him up. But that tells USF QB Cade Fortin that his receiver to the wide side (highlighted) will have one-on-one coverage unless Florida’s other safety can come over to help, but that the help will probably be late.

This is a horrific throw by Fortin. Had he put some air under it and led his receiver towards the sideline, it’s a touchdown. But the thing I don’t want you to miss is that the reason that Torrence was guarding the fullback, and the reason this play is open, is because Grantham blitzed linebacker Jeremiah Moon. Had Florida not been blitzing, Moon would have been responsible for the fullback and Florida would have had much more solid coverage.

And it’s not just the big plays. It’s the little ones on first down that add up quickly.

On this play, Florida has 7 men in the box. USF has all 11 of its players bunched in the formation. The fact that you can’t see any of Florida’s DBs is perplexing. This is about as easy of a pitch-and-catch as you’ll get, and again, it is because the Gators decide to blitz Amari Burney (#2) from the near side.

The whole point of blitzing is to make the offense get rid of the ball quickly. If you’re not going to play up, you may as well not blitz at all.

The other thing a blitz does is make you susceptible to checks at the line of scrimmage. Multiple times in the Miami game, Bryce Young simulated the snap count until Miami declared the player they were bringing pressure with. At that point, Young (or the sideline) just checked to a play designed to beat that blitz.

That happened to Florida against USF too. On this play, it was third-and-4 and Florida was expecting a pass play and decided to bring pressure from the weak side. Watch though as Fortin sees Amari Burney (#2) creep up to the line. At that point, he looks to the sideline and then checks to a different play.

At that point, USF runs away from the blitz. Some of Florida’s defenders on that side were prepared to drop into coverage and were completely caught off guard at the run play and USF got an easy first down.

For the love of God, only rush 4 – Alabama Edition

ABC ran a stat about halfway through the first quarter of Alabama’s blow out of Miami. When the Hurricanes only rushed four men, Bryce Young was 7-9 for 29 yards (3.2 yards per attempt). When Miami blitzed, Young was 9-12 for 120 yards and 2 TD.

But why was that so?

Miami actually doesn’t blitz here. What they do is zone blitz, bringing a linebacker off the edge and dropping defensive linemen into coverage. Alabama motions wide receiver Slade Bolden (#18) into the backfield, which tells Young that the Hurricanes are in a zone with deep safety help (from the one deep safety).

Receiver Jameson Williams (#1) beats the coverage, but Young is unable to deliver the ball accurately. This wasn’t the only time he wasn’t very accurate.

On this play, Miami has one safety high and Young knows he’s throwing an out to John Metchie (#8, highlighted). Whether Miami blitzes or not doesn’t really make a difference as Young already knows where he’s going with the ball.

Again, Young is inaccurate. Metchie saves him on this one, snatching the ball from the defensive back. But what if the corner had sunk underneath with the safety playing deep behind. An inaccurate throw like that might be intercepted.

We saw evidence of that later in the first quarter. Alabama was leading 7-0 and driving but faced a third-and 13.

Miami faked like they were going to bring pressure, then only rushed three and dropped into a zone. Young’s outlet in the flat was wide open. Young could have run the ball. Instead, he uncorked a throw into the end zone in between four defenders that should have been intercepted.

And how did Alabama get up 7-0 in the first place? Well, if you guessed exploiting a Miami blitz, you would be right.

Miami shows pressure and Young checks the play. The Tide run their slot receiver (Bolden, #18) right at the single high safety to occupy him. That leaves Metchie in the slot on a linebacker (Waynmon Steed, #17) who is also very concerned about Young running the ball.

This is a massive mismatch. Unsurprisingly, Metchie ends up wide open. Young makes a good throw, but it didn’t have to be because Metchie was so wide open.

I’m clearly exaggerating here. Grantham is going to have to mix things up. And it’s not like just rushing with four guys is going to completely shut the Tide down. It didn’t shut down USF.

On this play, the Bulls isolate wide receiver Xavier Weaver (#10) on linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper (#28). But they don’t just run him across the formation like it looks like he’s going to do. Instead, he starts a crossing route and then heads upfield, with Hopper trailing behind. The result is a big play.

If this looks familiar, it should. Alabama ran it last year in the SEC Championship Game.

You can see Devonta Smith (highlighted) cross in front of linebacker Mohamoud Diabate (#11) and then head upfield against linebacker James Houston (#41). Houston doesn’t have a chance and Alabama is up 14-7.

So what do should Grantham do?

There’s really only one way to combat this type of onslaught. Play dime (4 linemen, 6 DBs and 1 LB).

Had Jadarrius Perkins been on Smith rather than Houston, he would have at least had a shot. Alabama had four wide receivers on the field and motioned Najee Harris out of the backfield which mean even though Florida had Smith double-teamed, it was by two linebackers.

That doesn’t happen in you’re in dime.

Now, Florida couldn’t do that in 2020. Part of that was because its DBs just weren’t that good, which meant even if you had them on the field in the right position, you couldn’t be sure they’d actually stop the opposition. But the other reason they couldn’t do that last year against Alabama is because of Najee Harris.

Harris’ unique ability to catch the ball (43 catches) and run the ball efficiently (1466 yards, 5.8 yards per carry) meant that there wasn’t any way to defend Alabama. If you put 6 DBs on the field, Harris would kill you on the ground. If you put 2 LBs onto the field, Harris would kill you through the air.

Thankfully, Harris is now a member of the Steelers and Brian Robinson is his replacement. Robinson is averaging 5.9 yards per rush, but he only has three receptions. Backup RBs Trey Sanders (4.7 yards per attempt), Jase McClellan (3.8) and Roydell Williams (2.9) have been ineffective running the ball and only have 4 catches between them.

Overall, Alabama averaged 3.9 yards per rush against Miami and 4.6 yards per rush against Mercer. That is not last year’s Tide.

That means that Grantham can change his strategy. Only rush 4. Play 6 DBs in zone. Dare Young to fit the ball into tight spots. And as crazy as this sounds, dare Alabama to run the ball.

Statistical Indicators

My proprietary stat – Yards above Replacement (YAR) – tries to measure a QBs contributions through both the pass and run games. Zero is average, negative is bad, 1.0 is Jake Fromm and 2.0 is a Heisman-level player.

Mac Jones had a YAR of 3.05 for Alabama in 2020. Tua Tagovailoa was at 3.28 and 3.34 in 2018 and 2019. Jalen Hurts was at 0.55 and 1.40 in 2016 and 2017. That also happens to be the last time that the Tide seemed mortal when they weren’t playing Joe Burrow.

Bryce Young has an elite QB Rating through two games (180.1), but that is propped up by his 7 TD against 0 INT. Obviously, that is an important stat, but yards per attempt correlate much better to scoring once you get into SEC play. In that category, Young is only averaging 8.8 yards per attempt, significantly lower than either Jones or Tagovailoa. Combine that with limiting rushing (4 rush, 0 yards) and his YAR is at 1.12.

That’s really good QB play. But it is not Mac Jones or Tua level. That means that they are beatable.

And interestingly, now that we know that Anthony Richardson is going to play, I think you could make the argument that the Gators have an advantage at the QB position, and it’s not even all that close.

There is no doubt that Emory Jones has struggled. But he has also been efficient running the ball against both FAU and USF, which puts his YAR at -0.20, or just below average. Then you add Richardson to the doll and his YAR of 15.99 in his limited time and Florida’s QBs have a YAR of 3.59, or Heisman Trophy-level play.

It hasn’t felt that way because the highs have been really high and the lows have been really low, but all it really requires is an elimination of the stupid interceptions we’ve seen the past two games. There is no doubt Florida is limited in the passing game, but the point of YAR is that the running ability of both Jones and Richardson is so significant that it more than offsets that deficiency.

Were this a vintage Alabama defense, I’d say Florida would be in big trouble. But the Tide haven’t really been all that good on the defensive side of the ball against either Miami or Mercer.

Yes, they have only surrendered an average of 13.5 points, but Miami’s close game against Appalachian State indicates that Alabama may not have played anyone substantial to this point. Moreover, the Tide have allowed opposing QBs to rush for 30 yards on 21 carries (1.4 yards per attempt).

That doesn’t sound like much, but Alabama has seven sacks, meaning that they have been susceptible to running QBs when they haven’t been able to get home. The implication is that Florida’s strength – a running QB – will be something that the Gators will be able to leverage against the Tide.

Takeaway

This matchup seems way closer than I thought as I was watching Alabama manhandle Miami.

On rewatching the film of that game, the Hurricanes had a bad game plan, didn’t take advantage of Bryce Young’s mistakes and couldn’t run the ball (31 attempts for 87 yards).

Florida has averaged 8.5 yards per rush, third best in the country. And while Anthony Richardson has been a big part of that, so have Emory Jones, Malik Davis and Dameon Pierce.

There are two other things to consider. This is Bryce Young’s first true road game and the Swamp is sold out. Remember when Bo Nix came to Gainesville back in 2019 as a true freshman and couldn’t hear himself think and put up a 11-27 for 145 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs?

I think Young is way better than Nix. But he is not invincible. This is not Mac Jones, or Tua Tagovailoa or even older Jalen Hurts. There are going to be some opportunities for Florida to get a turnover or two, and the explosion you’ll hear in Gainesville when that happen is going to be incredible.

The other thing to consider is the weather. I realize that Florida weather forecasts can be unreliable, but right now it looks like rain. Alabama has built itself to throw the ball while Florida has built itself to run the ball. A wet, sloppy track is going to favor the team that runs the ball.

Does that mean Florida can win? I think absolutely the Gators could come away with a victory. But I also have watched enough film of Florida’s defense at this point that I don’t trust that they are going to do what I’ve suggested here or are going to be able to stop Alabama very often even if they do.

The reality is that the talent that Alabama has on offense is better than the talent that Florida has on defense. I don’t think Alabama is more than two touchdowns better than Florida, especially at home. And there has been lots of hyperbole this week about how Mullen could prove he’s the second best head coach with a win over the Tide (how about an SEC Title before we give him that crown?).

I originally was thinking about picking the Gators because I thought 35 points might win the game. Then I looked at Alabama’s history over the past couple of seasons. The Tide have given up 40+ points four times and lost two of those. Last year, they won two games that they surrendered 48 and 46 points.

This team isn’t quite that good, but I think it’s going to take 40. That’s a little bit too rich for my blood, especially with Todd Grantham on the Florida sideline.

Alabama wins (-15.5), 42-35.

Record this year: 2-0 straight up, 0-2 ATS