Florida shows exactly who it is in win over Vanderbilt

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Cocktail Party in 3 Weeks

The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is in three weeks. In all likelihood, Georgia is going to be the number one ranked team in the nation. Wouldn’t you like to have something to give to those fans in Jacksonville as they bark at you?

Well, that’s what I’m here for.

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On to Vanderbilt

As I alluded to in the title, Saturday’s tilt between Florida and Vanderbilt told us exactly who Florida is: inconsistent.

The Gators came out and scored touchdowns on its first two offensive drives and forced a three-and-out, but then followed up with an interception and a couple of fizzled drives of their own. The defense gave up over 200 yards in the first half and couldn’t get off the field (5-12 on third down), but then gave up only 87 yards and got Vanderbilt to punt (2-8 on third down) consistently in the second half.

Dan Mullen was clearly frustrated, as he only had one-word answers for the sideline reporter going into halftime despite the Gators leading by three touchdowns. Of course, if not for two missed field goals and an overturned TD call, it could have very easily been 21-13.

But because this was a noon game – and because I had time to take in more college football throughout the day – I do come away from this one with a little bit more perspective than perhaps I did last week. It all got summed up to me by this tweet, from an FSU beat writer.

What would you do for a misleading shutout in which you win by 40+ points? https://t.co/4ll3RKTuJj

— Brendan Sonnone (@BSonnone) October 9, 2021

FSU obviously hadn’t beaten North Carolina yet, but the fact that a rival fanbase would be envious of a 42-0 win over Vanderbilt – albeit imperfect – was a good reminder of where Dan Mullen has this Florida program at.

It is incredibly inconsistent. But last year, consistency wasn’t a good thing considering the offense was consistently explosive and the defense was consistently repulsive. Yes, it would be great if both units could put together an entire game instead of just pieces, but that is the quest.

The good news is that they get to test themselves again on the road against LSU next week and then have two weeks until the big one against Georgia. Can they build that consistency in the next two weeks?

I think this game does show progress towards that.

Offense

Emory Jones has received a ton of criticism for his play this season, but after this win against Vanderbilt, his QB rating for the year now sits at 141.7. That is not elite, but it isn’t bad.

In fact, if we look at Kyle Trask’s first six starts in 2019, we notice that his QB rating was 156.5. That is certainly quite a bit better than Jones, but we also have to remember that Trask was also immobile. If we look at those same six starts, Trask ran for -86 yards on 41 carries while Jones has run for 478 yards on 75 carries.

The result is that when you look at Yards Above Replacement (YAR), my proprietary stat that takes both running and passing into account, Trask sat at -0.41 – or below average – after his first six starts while Jones sits at 1.02 after his first six.

I am not saying Jones is significantly better than Trask was in 2020. Trask made a leap that was really unique between 2019 and 2020. He also had Auburn, LSU and Georgia in those first six starts whereas Jones has only had to play Alabama thus far if we’re listing SEC blue bloods.

But the fact remains that in Trask’s first six starts, the Gators averaged 29.8 points per game while they have averaged 33.2 points per game. I suspect that had Emory Jones put up these sorts of numbers immediately following the departure of Jim McElwain and Doug Nussmeier, we’d be really impressed.

It’s only because we’re looking at his performance through the lens of last year’s offense that it can be so maddening.

But last year’s offense existed and so expectations have been raised. And really simple things are still being missed that just shouldn’t be.

On this play, Vanderbilt linebacker Anfernee Orji (#0) barely moves. He’s reading Jones’ eyes and drops right to where the throw is supposed to go. Jones assumes that Orji is going to be responsible for Trent Whittemore (#14) in the flat and will clear out, but he doesn’t. That leaves two defenders directly in front of Justin Shorter as Jones releases the ball, and the tipped pass turns into an interception.

The correct play is to dump the ball to Whittemore or perhaps even hit Jacob Copeland (#1) up top as the cornerback is playing way off. Since it is just a three-man rush for Vanderbilt, the correct play might even be to run the ball. But throwing it into the teeth of the defense is not the correct play.

But those were few and far between on Saturday. Jones missed some open throws (the most egregious the wide-open one to Wells in the first half), but he also did some really nice things.

I know this throw got quite a bit of criticism on Twitter, but it was actually a show of growth for Jones. I diagramed a similar play from the Alabama game on YouTube a couple of weeks back where he didn’t let the deep shot fly when the defense was in single-hi coverage.

Here, the deep safety has to decide where he’s going to help. He decides to help on Kemore Gamble coming over the middle, which leaves both Whittemore (#14) and Justin Shorter (#4) in one-on-one matchups. Shorter is running a curl while Whittemore is running a go, so that’s the deep shot if Jones takes it. He underthrows the pass somewhat, but it turns into a 32-yard gain, so in my mind that’s successful execution.

I also think the Gators found something on offense that Jones likes to do and fit their personnel really well. They ran the same play twice, and both times it was against a cover-2 look where the safeties split the field and give up the middle. Last year, the Gators sent Kyle Pitts down the middle to exploit this look, but obviously they don’t have Pitts in 2021.

But they do have running backs who have shown an ability to catch the ball. On this play, the safeties play cover-2, and the rocker step employed by Jones gets the linebacker to bite. That means that Dameon Pierce is at a full sprint while the linebacker is just starting to turn around. Because the safeties have vacated the middle, there’s nobody there and it’s an easy score.

And then there’s this throw, which seems to have gotten a lot of attention for its accuracy. It’s a good throw for sure, but that’s not what impressed me about the play.

Notice how the Vanderbilt corner lined up across from Whittemore times his blitz pretty well. That blitz tells Jones that he has Whittemore one-on-one against a safety. And yes, the play was designed to roll that way (you can tell by looking at how the protections slide that way), but the easier throw is to Copeland across the middle. But the right throw – the aggressive throw – is to Whittemore.

Jones still isn’t perfect. His YAR suggests he is playing at an equivalent level that Jake Fromm did back in 2017 and 2018. The 2017 team almost won a championship, albeit with a defense that only allowed 16.4 points per game.

But the point is that anyone who says that 1) he isn’t improving or 2) that he isn’t good, isn’t looking at the stats or the film. He is improving. He has been pretty good, but inconsistent.

Just like the rest of the team.

Defense

For all of the discussion at the QB position and the inability to put teams away early, the weak spot of this team is still on the defensive side of the ball.

The return of Kaiir Elam – and the emergence of Jason Marshall – gives this unit an opportunity to play way better than it has thus far, but the biggest issue that I see lies with the linebackers and the defensive coordinator.

This looks to be a man-to-man scheme. I say that because while the Gators only rush four linemen, they have their corners in press coverage and bring up a safety to take the receiver who motions to the bottom of the formation. Normally in this sort of scheme, the linebacker – in this case Jeremiah Moon – is responsible for the back coming out of the backfield.

But Florida can’t do that because Moon isn’t fast enough to go to the outside. That leaves Tre’Vez Johnson (#16) as the one who is responsible for taking the running back. He’s never going to be able to get over there fast enough and so it ends up being a 7-yard gain.

You can combat that by having your linebackers drop into a zone, freeing up your safeties to take the running backs directly. But the problem then is you have a linebacker on a receiver. Trey Dean sees that situation here with Moon and essentially double-covers Moon’s man, which leaves the outside receiver completely uncovered.

I can’t imagine that this is Dean’s assignment. He’s guessing rather than doing his job because he knows Moon is going to struggle with his assignment.

So then you try to bring pressure and when that happens, Florida had the same problem that Vanderbilt did.

Florida brings the blitz (five men) and it’s a pretty easy diagnosis for Ken Seals at the snap as Florida is playing a single high safety. This is the exact play that Emory Jones diagnosed and hit to Whittemore earlier. In this case, the safety can’t get over in time and Vanderbilt hits the play down to the one-yard line.

Todd Grantham’s blitz scheme – if I’m kind – can be predictable. The Gators had three sacks and 11 QB hurries and I’d be willing to bet that most of them came when they rushed four men. They don’t need to blitz to consistently get pressure, so I’m not sure why they insist on doing it.

The interceptions by Da’Quan Newkirk and Trey Dean are perfect examples. In the case of Newkirk, they dropped him into coverage in a zone-blitz and only rushed four. They were able to get pressure and the ball went right into Newkirk’s lane. In the case of Dean, Grantham dropped Moon into coverage but brought Diabate. It was Diabate who got into Seals’ face and forced the interception.

There’s a lesson to be learned there.

Takeaway

This was an imperfect win by an imperfect team. The bouts of inconsistency on both sides of the ball are frustrating, but that’s only because we also see the flashes of excellence that shine through from time-to-time as well.

But that’s pretty much what we have in the 2021 Gators.

I doubt very much that they’re going to be able to put together a full, consistent game because they haven’t been able to do that yet this year. That inconsistency cost them the game against Alabama, but it also helped them claw back into the game as well. And inconsistency on offense – particularly in the red zone – cost them against Kentucky.

If this team is able to put together a full 60 minutes, they are capable of beating anyone in the SEC, including Georgia. But 20 minutes, or 30, or 40, or even 50 isn’t going to get it done. That needs to be the focus this week in practice as they prepare for LSU because an inconsistent performance in Baton Rouge and they’ll be licking their wounds during the bye week after a third consecutive loss to the Tigers.

But there is hope on the horizon. The defense – limited as it is at some positions – is putting together quarters. The offense – limited though it is at some positions as well – is starting to put together multiple drives.

But as I said in the open, we’re three weeks away from the Cocktail Party. If the Gators want to win that one, they won’t be allowed to be inconsistent.

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