Billy Napier shows recruiting chops again with commitment of 4-star Trevor Etienne

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Trevor Etienne – brother of Jaguars running back Travis Etienne – announced his commitment to Florida during Saturday’s All-American Bowl.

Etienne is a 4-star recruit out of Jennings, Louisiana and the 183rd ranked player nationally and a big addition for Gators coach Billy Napier. That’s not just true because Etienne is a blue-chip player.

It’s also true because while running back was a perceived strength coming into 2021, Napier only has Demarkcus Bowman, Lorenzo Lingard and Nay’Quan Wright on the roster coming in for 2022. Add to that the utter inability of Greg Knox and Dan Mullen to bring in high school running backs consistently, and having a blue-chip player at that particular position is a bigger deal than most commitments.

But Etienne’s commitment got me thinking about this class in general. Etienne’s addition puts Florida at just 11 commits, meaning there is significant room for more additions to the class. But would that be a good thing if those players aren’t elite-level quality?

Jim McElwain’s 2015 transition class was extremely top-heavy, with 5-star commits Martez Ivey and CeCe Jefferson, but only one other player in the top-300 (Jordan Scarlett, 117). The 17 3-star players that he added was an early alarm bell that his recruiting might not be up to snuff.

Dan Mullen’s 2018 transition class was much better, with contributions from multiple players at the top of the class and a bonafide star in Kyle Pitts. So obviously we have to look beyond just the transition class when evaluating.

But even though I’ve written about how the 2023 “bump” class is when we’re going to get to truly evaluate Billy Napier’s recruiting ability, that doesn’t mean the transition class isn’t important at all. After all, while Nick Saban’s 2008 class at Alabama produced nine All-SEC players, his 2007 class still produced another two.

So just how much can Coach Napier squeeze out of this class, and what kind of ranking might we see when the dust settles after February’s signing day?

Looking at History

The addition of Etienne takes Florida  up to 40th in the 247Sports rankings. When fans were freaking out about the Gators being at 70th – or when rivals were mocking Florida – it never made sense because Florida had so few recruits. Just as with Etienne, signing one or two high-level players will make the Gators shoot up the boards towards where we’re accustomed.

That’s because the addition of Etienne also takes the Gators average player ranking up to 90.09. That ranks 14th nationally and is right in-line with what we should expect in a transition recruiting class. What that says is that this class currently lacks numbers, but the ones who have committed are of relatively high quality.

After all, Dan Mullen’s four recruiting classes at Florida had average player rankings of 90.75, 90.56, 90.74 and 90.30 so there isn’t a drop-off in player quality even with the late start.

But rankings still matter, both from a player acquisition perspective but also as a harbinger of what’s to come. So the question I think is worth answering is where can Napier get this class at a bare minimum, and where can he push it if he truly has a successful run up to National Signing Day?

To answer that, we first have to define successful. Historically, Florida coaches taking over have had relatively strong transition classes.

Transition classes for Florida coaches since 2002. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

The weakest transition class clearly belongs to Jim McElwain. He lagged behind not only in national ranking, but in total top-300 players. You might have picked Urban Meyer as the best of the group with his 15 total top-300 players, but that class was a little bit light on top-end talent.

The good news is that with nearly a month to go, Napier is already ahead of McElwain’s pace, both in terms of total top-300 players and also top-100 players.

The Florida class currently sits at 190.63 points. To hit a top-30 class, Napier is going to have to get to at least 220 points, but the good news is, that isn’t a very high bar to hit and could be achieved with just a couple of high-level commits or even just by filling out the class.

For instance, let’s take what is probably the worst-case scenario.

That would be Napier signing the same number of recruits as the transition class with the fewest players of the last five Florida coaches (Urban Meyer, 17). And so let’s say that beyond Etienne, he is “only” able to sign one other top-300 player (Jahlil Florence, 202), one top-400 player (Khamari Terrell, 386), one top-500 player (Arlis Boardingham, 479), one top-600 player (Ahmad Moten, 567), one top-700 player (Francois Nolton, 626) and one top-900 player (Miguel Mitchell, 891).

That wouldn’t be a class that anyone is going to really write home about. But it would equate to a point total of 234.27, which based on the last four season’s rankings would put the Gators 20th. That isn’t where Florida wants to be, but you can see that just by filling out this class with depth, Napier is going to lift the overall score for the Gators significantly.

But what if Napier is able to hit on some big recruits. There are still some really big targets on the board, especially if Billy can work his magic when he gets some of them on-campus for their official visits.

There was disappointment that 5-star recruit Harold Perkins committed to Texas A&M at the Under Armour game last weekend, but then Perkins – who is being heavily recruited by Gators early enrollee Kamari Wilson – scheduled an official visit to Florida. Napier and Wilson also appear to pulling out all the stops for 4-star recruit Jacoby Mathews (36th overall).

It’s an uphill battle for Napier for sure, but if he flips Perkins, gets Mathews to come as well, and fills out the class as described above, the Gators score immediately jumps up to 260.25. That would probably put them around the 14th place ranking, right where Dan Mullen finished in 2018 for his transition class.

Add another surprise like Lake Charles receiver TreVonte’ Citizen (113 overall) or Montgomery Catholic linebacker T.J. Dudley (198 overall) and this class could sneak into the top-10.

Beyond Volume?

But let’s say Napier does end up 14th in the way I described above. Is that a better class than 14th ranked transition class Dan Mullen brought in for 2018?

It absolutely is.

The reason is that while the rankings above are something we track, I’m not sure they’re all that important when we evaluate transition recruiting classes. The reason is exactly what I’ve been harping on now for weeks: this class needs to provide a couple of studs and then some solid depth, but if you’re relying on it to push your program forward, you’re in trouble.

We saw that this year as Florida tried to rely on its 2018 class (Jacob Copeland, Richard Gouraige, Emory Jones, Trey Dean, Amari Burney, and Dameon Pierce) and things fell apart. That suggests that a high number of starters is less important, and instead we need to worry about the quality of the starters.

I post this chart just about every year, but I think it’s important to reiterate. There is a significant distinction between a player ranked 15th and a player ranked 50th. And that distinction grows even more between a player ranked 50th and a player ranked 100th.

But once you get out beyond about 200, the probability of NFL Draft success is about equivalent, at least going out to players ranked 500.

Percent of players drafted by NFL versus recruiting ranking in 2013 and 2014. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

This tells us that if you’re looking for impact players, you probably need to bone-up on top-100 (or really top-25) guys. That’s why a class that includes Wilson, Perkins, Mathews and Shemar James (64th nationally) is impressive. The numbers say you’re likely to get two or three draftable players out of that mix.

This is exactly what we see if we look at the history of transition classes at Florida.

Outcome of all top-300 players in Florida’s last five transition classes. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Top-25 players have accounted for just 8 percent of the top-300 players signed. But they’ve accounted for 15 percent of the players who have been consistent starters (more than 10 career starts) and they’ve accounted for 22 percent of the players who have been named All-SEC.

You can see that Florida hasn’t exactly knocked it out of the park bringing in top-tier talent in those classes (only six total top-50 players), but when they have, guys like Ciatrick Fason and Martez Ivey have performed. At a bare minimum, they almost always (5 out of 6) end up starters.

Other than that, All-SEC play seems to be relatively random. Kyle Pitts was ranked 162. Marcus Roberson was ranked 73. Randy Hand was 91, Channing Crowder was 242, Loucheiz Purifoy was 261 and Ryan Stamper was 161.

That means that filling out the rest of the class with volume is likely more important than focusing on just the rankings.

Takeaway

Interestingly, Urban Meyer actually had the highest number of top-300 players (15) and only got four starters from his transition class. I think this suggests two things:

1. Getting significant playing time out of your transition class is overrated.
2. Meyer’s 2006 class was so good that only the elite athletes from the 2005 class could earn their way on the field.

So that’s the challenge for Napier.

He already has a player with a chance to fit in that top-tier category (Kamari Wilson, ranked 28th). Add Perkins (5th) and Mathews (36th) to that group and he has some guys who should be able to not just crack the starting lineup, but be true difference-makers as Napier gets recruiting going in 2023 and 2024.

Maybe Trevor Etienne becomes a star, but that is far from guaranteed. But I do think that if you look at where Napier is targeting high-end talent, he’s relatively position agnostic (Wilson and Mathews are both safeties).

And when it comes to Etienne, he’s definitely at a position of need. The same can be said for Perkins and fellow elite linebacker Shemar James. And then the transfer of Kamryn Waites combined with the additions of Jalen Farmer, David Conner and Christian Williams to the offensive line suggests piling up numbers at a position of need as well.

And that’s really what a transition class should be. Focus on the elite-talent targets as much as you can and then fill up with depth at positions where your numbers are sparse. Napier seems to be doing that to start, giving himself a shot to get exactly what he needs from this class to build a championship program.

Now comes the hard work of making sure the 2023 class does the same.