Anthony Richardson’s Road to the Heisman Trophy

Anthony Richardson made a strong impression despite playing a limited role last season. Outside of USC transfer quarterback Jaxson Dart, Vegas sees Richardson as the most likely first-year starting quarterback to make a run at the 2022 Heisman Trophy, but which numbers will the redshirt sophomore from Gainesville Eastside need to duplicate in order to stand among the three statues outside of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium?

The stats of the 16 Heisman winning quarterbacks since 2002 can create a roadmap to Richardson hoisting the Heisman this December.

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2022 Heisman Trophy Odds

Heisman odds via The Action Network

Player	Pos./Team	Odds
CJ Stroud	QB, Ohio State	+200
Bryce Young	QB, Alabama	+350
Caleb Williams	QB, USC	+900
Bijan Robinson	RB, Texas	+2000
DJ Uiagalelei	QB, Clemson	+2800
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR, Ohio State	+3000
Dillon Gabriel	QB, Oklahoma	+3000
Jaxson Dart	QB, Ole Miss	+3500
Tyler Van Dyke	QB, Miami	+3500
Anthony Richardson	QB, Florida	+4000
Kedon Slovis	QB, Pitt	+4000
Spencer Rattler	QB, South Carolina	+4000
TreVeyon Henderson	RB, Ohio State	+4000
Will Anderson Jr.	DL, Alabama	+4000

Heisman Trophy Quarterbacks (2002-2021)

2021 – Bryce Young, Alabama
Embed from Getty ImagesBryce Young  ran away with the Heisman after torching  what had previously looked like an unbeatable Georgia defense in the SEC title game. Though Young did not always put up flashy numbers and looked human at times (Florida, Texas A&M, and Auburn come to mind), he shined in other games. He threw for five touchdowns in three different games and did not toss more than one interception in a single game prior to the Heisman ceremony.

Did Young have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, Young locked up the Heisman vote by throwing for 421 yards and 3 TDs and rushing for another 40 yards and one touchdown to lead Alabama to a SEC championship and a playoff berth.

2019 – Joe Burrow, LSU
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Burrow and the 2019 LSU football team will go down as legends until the end of time in the state of Louisiana. He was the perfect quarterback for a perfect team and a no-brainer first-place ballot by early December. There were only two games in which Burrow failed to throw for at least three touchdowns and he topped the 400-yard mark passing on two occasions.

Did Burrow have a defining Heisman moment?
No, the overall excellence of Joe Burrow and the LSU offense was on display from start to finish of the 2019 season. Nearly every time he touched the field was a stand out performance – arguably winning at Alabama locked up the Heisman Trophy – but he served as the front runner for a good portion of the season.

2018 – Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
Embed from Getty ImagesA year after Baker Mayfield took college football by storm, Kyler Murray put on a historic performance  to give the Sooners back-to-back Heisman winners to kick off the first two seasons of the Lincoln Riley era. Murray and Mayfield were the first back-to-back winners from the same school since Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush accomplished the same feat for Southern Cal in the 2004 and 2005 seasons.

Did Murray have a defining Heisman moment?
No, Tua Tagovailoa was a threat, but both he and Murray performed well throughout the season. Murray did almost as much damage as Mayfield through the air while proving to be much more lethal on the ground.

2017 – Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Embed from Getty ImagesTexas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield helped Lincoln Riley kick of the post-Bob Stoops era in style. Mayfield shredded Oklahoma State for nearly 600 yards and five touchdowns in his most prolific outing of the season as the Sooners’ juggernaut offense failed to notch 30 points just once in 2017, a 29-24 win against Texas.

Did Mayfield have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, Mayfield was a highlight machine throughout the entire season – even his sideline antics against lowly Kansas turned into a national storyline – however, leading Oklahoma to a road win against #2 Ohio State and planting the OU flag at midfield of Ohio Stadium put Mayfield on the road to New York.

2016 – Lamar Jackson, Louisville
Embed from Getty ImagesPat Mahomes lit up skies for over 5,000 yards, but Jackson put up running back-like numbers on the ground while accounting for 30 touchdowns and over 3,000 yards passing.

Did Jackson have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, Louisville rose to #3 in the polls twice in 2016: once after waxing #2 Florida State 63–20 with College GameDay in attendance and again after rebounding from a tough road loss in a classic duel against Deshaun Watson. Jackson was electric against FSU, rushing for 146 yards and 4 TDs. He added another 162 yards on 31 attempts on a Saturday night nationally televised road game at #5 Clemson.

2014 – Marcus Mariota, Oregon
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Aside from a 31-24 loss at Arizona, Mariota led a stellar Ducks offense to more than 40 points in 11 out of 13 games. Oregon landed the #2 seed and a Rose Bowl berth in the inaugural College Football Playoff.
Did Mariota have a defining Heisman moment?
No, Mariota thrived all season long. It helped that he did not go up against a star-studded group, beating out Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon and Alabama WR Amari Cooper. To further illustrate the point – who finished fourth on the ballot? TCU QB Trevone Boykin.

2013 -Jameis Winston, Florida State
Embed from Getty ImagesWinston stayed atop of the national headlines throughout the season after an impressive opening road trip at Pitt in which he completed 25/27 passes for 356 yards and 4 TDs. Florida State rode Winston’s arm to a dream season. The Seminoles only failed to cross the 40-point threshold once – I guess we can call that a win for the 2013 Gators – and the first-year starter was a clear choice.
Did Winston have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, Winston put the nation on notice from the start, but he did have a clear moment where he went from freshman sensation to the leader of the best team in the nation and Heisman favorite. Florida State’s mid-October beatdown of #3 Clemson in Death Valley featured 444 yards passing, 3 TDs through the air, and a 51-14 victory.

2012 -Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
Embed from Getty ImagesJohnny Football led the Aggies’ first foray into SEC play and he did with style. The cocky freshman from Tyler,, Texas, was a weekly highlight machine both through the air and on the ground leading Texas A&M to its best season since R.C. Slocum’s Aggies upset Nebraska for the 1998 Big XII crown.

Did Manziel have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, perhaps more than anyone else over the last two decades. Manziel went into Tuscaloosa and led three touchdown drives on the Aggies’ first three possessions to give Texas A&M a 20-0 first quarter lead over Saban and the Tide. Texas A&M held on for a massive 29-24 upset to give Manziel his Heisman moment.

2011 – Robert Griffin III, Baylor
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The Bears may have only started the season 4-3, but Griffin excelled in Art Briles’ wide-open passing attack, throwing for 400 yards or more in four out of five games in the middle of the season. Though Griffin operated with a pass-first mentality, he also proved to be extremely effective in the running game.

Did Griffin have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, RGIII shined in the national spotlight down the stretch leading Baylor to a 45-38 home victory over #5 Oklahoma. Griffin threw for 479 yards and 4 TDs while adding another 72 yards on the ground. He cemented his Heisman by leading a 48 point outburst against Texas to close the season.

2010 – Cam Newton, Auburn
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Florida transfer QB Cam Newton served as the face of the greatest season in Auburn football history. Much like Tebow, he proved to be an unstoppable force on the ground while still being effective in the passing game. Newton’s Heisman resume featured six games with under 200 yards of passing, but between his statistical dominance and Auburn’s run to a national title, the future #1 pick in the NFL Draft more than doubled second place finisher Andrew Luck’s voting tally becoming the first Heisman Trophy winner on The Plains since Bo Jackson.
Did Newton have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, despite some late season controversy surrounding claims of improper benefits, Newton stayed the course, rolled into Tuscaloosa, and overcame a 21-0 deficit by throwing for 3 TDs and running for a score to keep the Tigers’ perfect season in tact in a game for ages which earned the nickname, “The Camback.”

2008 – Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
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Bradford ran OC Kevin Wilson’s up-tempo offense to near perfection and appeared to be unstoppable heading into a national championship matchup with Florida. Oklahoma scored 58+ points in their final six games as Bradford only failed to reach the 300-yard passing mark on two occasions.
Did Bradford have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, Bradford solidified his spot in New York and overcame the overwhelming force that was Tim Tebow to lock up the Heisman Trophy by leading the Sooners to three straight 60+ point outbursts against #2 Texas Tech, #12 Oklahoma State, and #20 Missouri in the Big XII Championship Game.

2007 – Tim Tebow, Florida
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A surprise 2006 national title run got the Urban Meyer era off to a red-hot start in Gainesville, but when Chris Leak turned the reigns over to Tim Tebow, Meyer and OC Dan Mullen’s offense went to the next level. In addition to being a wrecking ball on 3rd & short, the Gators only failed to hit the 30 point mark twice in back-to-back losses against Auburn and on the road at eventual national champion, LSU.
Did Tebow have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, Tebow was in the Heisman conversation throughout the 2007 season, but a seven touchdown performance (5 rushing and 2 passing) sealed the deal for the third Heisman Trophy winner in the history of Florida football.

2006 – Troy Smith, Ohio State
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Smith led a particularly explosive Buckeye offense, especially by Tressel era standards, to a major road win against #2 Texas early in the season. Ranked wins against #24 Penn State, #13 Iowa, and #2 Michigan didn’t hurt his resume either. The Bucks spent the season atop of the polls with plenty of national attention and Smith became the first full=time quarterback in Ohio State history secure the Heisman Trophy (Les Horvath won the 1944 Heisman while splitting time between tailback and quarterback).

Did Smith have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, #1 Ohio State and #2 Michigan squared off in a “game of the century” type of environment in Columbus. Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler would have been shocked to see both teams combine for 81 points. Smith saved his best for last, throwing for 316 yards and 4 TDs en route to a 42-39 Ohio State victory and a berth in the BCS Championship Game against the Florida Gators.

2004 – Matt Leinart, USC
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Leinart led a lethal USC attack and may have benefitted from the presence of LenDale White to split carries with the electric Reggie Bush. Bush would get his Heisman in 2005, but Leinart served as the face of the wire-to-wire #1 team in America coming off of the 2003 split title with LSU.

Did Leinart have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, though he saw plenty of time in the spotlight, 400-yards passing and 5 TD performance against Notre Dame in the season finale didn’t hurt Leinart’s chances at winning a Heisman.

2003 – Jason White, Oklahoma
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White and the Sooners cruised through an unbeaten regular season before a shocking upset at the hands of ole Billy Snyder and those rascally Kansas State Wildcats in the Big XII title game. Overcoming two ACL tears, one in each leg, White became a feel-good story while leading Oklahoma to an eventual BCS title game appearance against Nick Saban and LSU.

Did White have a defining Heisman moment?
No, a strong performance throughout the year culminated with 13 TDs and 0 INT in the final three games of the regular season. White beat out a field which included Pitt WR Larry Fitzgerald and Ole Miss QB Eli Manning.

2002 – Carson Palmer, USC
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USC was finally back in the national limelight in year two of the Pete Carroll era. Palmer led the Trojans to their first 10-win season since 1988 and, in the process, became USC first Heisman Trophy winner since RB Marcus Allen in 1981.

Did Palmer have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, Palmer rose to the occasion in a Top-10 finale against Notre Dame, racking up 425 yards and 4 TDs through the air. Palmer beat out a field that included Iowa QB Brad Banks, Penn State RB Larry Johnson, and Miami teammates RB Willis McGahee and QB Ken Dorsey.

What does this mean for Anthony Richardson?

Every Heisman Trophy winning quarterback since 2010 has crossed the 4,000 total yard threshold. Winston, Young, Mariota, and Bradford did not cross the 4,550 total yard mark, however, each led their squads to national title appearances. Manziel, Griffin, and Mayfield each totaled 4,600+ yards and are likely more indicative of what Richardson would have to accomplish this season to be considered for the award.

YEAR	WINNER	PASS YARDS	RUSH YARDS	TOTAL YARDS
2019	Joe Burrow	4715	289	5004
2018	Kyler Murray	4053	892	4945
2016	Lamar Jackson	3390	1538	4928
2017	Baker Mayfield	4340	310	4650
2011	Robert Griffin III	3998	644	4642
2012	Johnny Manziel	3419	1181	4600
2008	Sam Bradford	4464	65	4529
2014	Marcus Mariota	3803	669	4472
2021	Bryce Young	4322	31	4353
2013	Jameis Winston	3820	193	4013
2010	Cam Newton	2589	1409	3998
2007	Tim Tebow	3132	838	3970
2003	Jason White	3744	-104	3640
2002	Carson Palmer	3639	-126	3513
2004	Matt Leinart	2990	-33	2957
2006	Troy Smith	2507	233	2740

RICHARDSON TOTAL YARDS GOAL: 4,600 TOTAL YARDS

Burrow, Bradford, Mayfield, and Young were each awarded a Heisman Trophy without much need for rushing statistics thanks to outstanding work through the air and national title contending status. If Richardson does not want to rely on his rushing numbers, he’ll need to throw for over 4,300 passing yards (averaging 330.7 passing yards per game). Should he cross the 600-yard mark on the ground, Richardson may be able to get away with closer to 3,800 yards passing. If he were to exceed 1,000 yards rushing, his passing numbers can drop in the Tebow, Jackson, and Manziel range (3,100-3,400 passing yards) so long as he accounts for enough touchdowns.

YR	WINNER	PASS YARDS
2019	Joe Burrow	4,715
2008	Sam Bradford	4,464
2017	Baker Mayfield	4,340
2021	Bryce Young	4,322
2018	Kyler Murray	4,053
2011	Robert Griffin III	3,998
2013	Jameis Winston	3,820
2014	Marcus Mariota	3,803
2003	Jason White	3,744
2002	Carson Palmer	3,639
2012	Johnny Manziel	3,419
2016	Lamar Jackson	3,390
2007	Tim Tebow	3,132
2004	Matt Leinart	2,990
2010	Cam Newton	2,589
2006	Troy Smith	2,507

RICHARDSON PASSING YDS GOAL
(0-299 RUSHING YARDS): 4,300+ YDS
(300-799 RUSHING YARDS): 3,800+ YDS
(800-1,000+ RUSHING YARDS): 3,100+ YDS

Jackson, Newton, Manziel, and Tebow – four quarterbacks who each relied on their ground game to enhance their resume – rushed for at least 19 touchdowns on the ground. Kyler Murray posted 11 TDs, but excellent rushing numbers were complemented by excellent passing numbers as the one-time MLB prospect exceeded 4,000 yards passing and threw for 40 touchdowns. A dominant performance on the ground would be Richardson’s quickest path to New York.

YR	HEISMAN	RUSH YARDS
2016	Lamar Jackson	1538
2010	Cam Newton	1409
2012	Johnny Manziel	1181
2018	Kyler Murray	892
2007	Tim Tebow	838
2014	Marcus Mariota	669
2011	Robert Griffin III	644
2017	Baker Mayfield	310
2019	Joe Burrow	289
2006	Troy Smith	233
2013	Jameis Winston	193
2008	Sam Bradford	65
2021	Bryce Young	31
2004	Matt Leinart	-33
2003	Jason White	-104
2002	Carson Palmer	-126

RICHARDSON RUSHING YDS GOAL: 1,000 YDS

Only six of the previous 16 Heisman Trophy quarterbacks since 2002 have hit the 40 passing touchdown threshold. If Richardson is a vital weapon in the running game, the 30 touchdown mark through the air has shown to be enough in the past, but he would solidify his odds if he were to hit the 35 passing TD mark.

YR	HEISMAN	PASS TD
2008	Sam Bradford	48
2019	Joe Burrow	48
2021	Bryce Young	43
2017	Baker Mayfield	41
2018	Kyler Murray	40
2003	Jason White	40
2014	Marcus Mariota	38
2013	Jameis Winston	38
2011	Robert Griffin III	36
2002	Carson Palmer	32
2016	Lamar Jackson	30
2006	Troy Smith	30
2007	Tim Tebow	29
2010	Cam Newton	28
2004	Matt Leinart	28
2012	Johnny Manziel	24

RICHARDSON PASSING TDS GOAL:  30 TDS

Prominent running Heisman Trophy quarterbacks have no issue finding the end zone. Tebow averaged close to two rushing touchdowns per game and rushed for just seven touchdowns less than he tallied up through the air (29 pass TD/22 rush TD). Other elite rushers such as Newton (28 pass TD/20 rush TD) and Jackson (30 pass TD/21 rush TD). Manziel (24 pass TD/19 rush TD) came close on the touchdown front, but accounted for approx. 600 more yards than either Newton or Tebow. Richardson would likely need to at least match Mariota’s 14 rushing touchdowns to be in consideration, but exceeding the 15 rushing TD mark would create a more viable resume should he end up close to 30 TDs passing.

YR	HEISMAN	RUSH TD
2007	Tim Tebow	22
2016	Lamar Jackson	21
2010	Cam Newton	20
2012	Johnny Manziel	19
2014	Marcus Mariota	14
2018	Kyler Murray	11
2011	Robert Griffin III	9
2017	Baker Mayfield	5
2008	Sam Bradford	5
2013	Jameis Winston	4
2002	Carson Palmer	4
2019	Joe Burrow	3
2021	Bryce Young	3
2004	Matt Leinart	3
2006	Troy Smith	1
2003	Jason White	1

RICHARDSON RUSHING TDS GOAL:  16 TDS

Should Richardson cross the 50-TD barrier, it seems safe to say he’ll win the 2022 Heisman Trophy. Manziel provides an interesting path – scoring a combined total of 43 touchdowns.  If the Gators lean on Richardson near the goal line, he may have no issue scoring the 43 + total touchdowns needed to be in the mix as a Heisman candidate. If he can cross the 45 touchdown mark, Richardson would likely be the front runner in December.

YR	HEISMAN	PASS TD	RUSH TD	TOTAL TD
2008	Sam Bradford	48	5	53
2014	Marcus Mariota	38	14	52
2007	Tim Tebow	29	22	51
2016	Lamar Jackson	30	21	51
2018	Kyler Murray	40	11	51
2019	Joe Burrow	48	3	51
2010	Cam Newton	28	20	48
2017	Baker Mayfield	41	5	46
2021	Bryce Young	43	3	46
2011	Robert Griffin III	36	9	45
2012	Johnny Manziel	24	19	43
2013	Jameis Winston	38	4	42
2003	Jason White	40	1	41
2002	Carson Palmer	32	4	36
2004	Matt Leinart	28	3	31
2006	Troy Smith	30	1	31

RICHARDSON TOTAL TDS GOAL:  46 TDS

The Anthony Richardson Heisman Roadmap

The statistical thresholds between Anthony Richardson and the Heisman Trophy are clear based on the most recent winners, however, there will be some level of variation allowed in the passing numbers should he not reach the 1,000 yard mark rushing. Total yardage and total touchdowns can be used as more important indicators specific passing or rushing statistics.

TOTAL YARDS	4,600
PASSING YARDS (0-299 RUSHING YARDS)	4,300
PASSING YARDS (300-799 RUSHING YARDS)	3,800
PASSING YARDS (800-1,000+ RUSHING YARDS)	3,100
RUSHING YARDS	1,000
PASSING TDS	30
RUSHING TDS	16
TOTAL TDS	46

In  terms of team success, Richardson will have to deliver in a few big moments to ensure Florida is ranked high enough to warrant consideration.

Though the Heisman Trophy is technically an individual award, it is not a coincidence that 5 of 6 Heisman winners during the playoff era led their teams to a spot in the College Football Playoff.  If Florida fails to qualify for a playoff spot, which even the most ardent Florida fan will admit to be a tall task for the 2022 Gators, Richardson can follow the path of the likes of Lamar Jackson, Johnny Manziel, Robert Griffin III, or Tim Tebow by dominating statistically while losing no more than three regular season games to achieve a ranking of at least #13 in the polls.

YR	WINNER	SCHOOL	RANK	BOWL
2021	Bryce Young	Alabama	1	CFP
2019	Joe Burrow	LSU	1	CFP
2018	Kyler Murray	Oklahoma	4	CFP
2017	Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2	CFP
2016	Lamar Jackson	Louisville	13	Citrus
2014	Marcus Mariota	Oregon	2	CFP
2013	Jameis Winston	Florida State	1	BCS Championship
2012	Johnny Manziel	Texas A&M	9	Cotton
2011	Robert Griffin III	Baylor	12	Alamo
2010	Cam Newton	Auburn	1	BCS Championship
2008	Sam Bradford	Oklahoma	2	BCS Championship
2007	Tim Tebow	Florida	12	Capital One
2006	Troy Smith	Ohio State	1	BCS Championship
2004	Matt Leinart	USC	1	BCS Championship
2003	Jason White	Oklahoma	2	BCS Championship
2002	Carson Palmer	USC	5	Orange

If Richardson can check the statistics box and lead the Gators to at least a 9-3 record, the final piece of the puzzle would be a signature win or defining Heisman moment. Luckily for Richardson, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to make his mark early and often in the first two months of the season.

Richardson can potentially notch Top-10 victories against Utah, LSU, Georgia, and Texas A&M. If you factor in Kentucky and Tennessee, the Gators will likely face six ranked foes this season.

YR	WINNER	SCHOOL	Ranked Wins	Top-10 Ranked Wins	Nov/Dec Wins
2021	Bryce Young	Alabama	5	1	5-0
2019	Joe Burrow	LSU	5	5	5-0
2018	Kyler Murray	Oklahoma	3	0	5-0
2017	Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	4	2	5-0
2016	Lamar Jackson	Louisville	1	1	2-2
2014	Marcus Mariota	Oregon	4	2	5-0
2013	Jameis Winston	Florida State	4	2	6-0
2012	Johnny Manziel	Texas A&M	3	1	4-0
2011	Robert Griffin III	Baylor	3	1	5-0
2010	Cam Newton	Auburn	5	1	4-0
2008	Sam Bradford	Oklahoma	5	1	5-0
2007	Tim Tebow	Florida	2	1	4-0
2006	Troy Smith	Ohio State	4	2	3-0
2004	Matt Leinart	USC	2	1	4-0
2003	Jason White	Oklahoma	4	0	4-1
2002	Carson Palmer	USC	8	1	4-0

A big outing against Utah will put him on the map and if the Gators can go on the road at Knoxville to close out a strong September (3-1 minimum), Richardson’s Heisman Trophy stock may be through the roof heading into a potential Top-10 LSU coming to The Swamp in mid-October.

Should things still be on track after the LSU game, Richardson will have a golden opportunity to create a Heisman moment in back-to-back weeks against Georgia and on the road at Texas A&M. Heisman winners rarely lose in November meaning Florida’s November 5 trip to Aggieland may serve as the make or break point of Richardson’s Heisman campaign.

A very winnable three-game post-Texas A&M slate for the Gators may create enough of a distraction to allow another Heisman contender to leapfrog Richardson down the stretch, but hopefully, he’ll have made enough of a case in September and October that an unbeaten November stretch would be enough to keep him cemented at the top-spot of many Heisman ballots.

Overall, a 9-3 record may be enough should Richardson put up crazy numbers, but a 10-2 final record and kicking off a 4-0 November with an upset win on the road at Texas A&M would go a long way toward Anthony Richardson securing the 2022 Heisman Trophy.