Knudsen’s Knotes
Florida defense at a crossroads; Vols snap skid vs Tide

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LONG DRIVES HURT FLORIDA DEFENSE

Third downs have become the focal point of conversation surrounding the Florida defense.

Will Miles did an excellent job [EDITOR’S NOTE: the best job] detailing just how atrocious the Florida defense was in getting off of the field on third down against LSU in his latest article on Sunday.

Cleaning up on third down efforts will improve the Florida defense, but we all know the problems with this unit extend past third downs. Outside of playing a FCS opponent, the porous Gators have struggled to  put together even a few defensively dominant drives in a game. Sure, they might ultimately get a stop – like Amari Burney’s interception to win the game vs Utah – but those stops usually come after extended drives.

Below I’ve laid out the following from each game:

• How many plays in a drive? (# PLAYS)
• The number of yards gained in the drive (# YARDS GAINED)
• The number of yards possible (opponent start point to the end zone) (# YARDS POSSIBLE)
• How many yards gained against number of yards possible (% yards possible)? (% YARDS POSSIBLE)
•  The result of the drive (RESULT)
• Did we keep the opponent in their own territory (yes/no/started in UF territory)? (KEEP OPP. IN OWN TERRITORY)

UTAH
Drive Chart: Utah Offense vs Florida Defense
A: Offense Start Point; Z: Offense End Point

• Utah gained 71% of the yardage possible against Florida.
  
• The Gators kept the Utes out of Florida territory only once (punt on second drive).
• Florida surrounded one touchdown against two Utah drives which started inside of the UF 40-yard line.

The defense gave up a ton of yardage, but deserves credit for coming up with key plays that saved the day: Burney’s late interception, the goal line stand, and Utah settling for a field goal on a drive which started from the UF 38-yard line.

KENTUCKY
Drive Chart: Kentucky Offense vs Florida Defense

A: Offense Start Point; Z: Offense End Point

• Aside from a long touchdown pass (Levis-Key on a well-covered deep ball) and a Richardson turnover which set UK up on the UF 6-yard line, the first half performance against Kentucky is the shining moment so far for the Florida defense.
• Florida limited Kentucky to only 38% of its possible yardage. Yes, that number is skewed by a bad snap which went into the end zone on a punt on a fluke play.
•  Kentucky took possession in UF territory three times and was limited to 10 points on those possessions.
• The Florida defense kept Kentucky in its own territory on half of the drives which started in UK territory.

This is the model for a strong finish from the Florida defense. The Kentucky performance showed some warts with this team, but the Gators offense did not make enough plays to win. If Toney can get the defense to play to this level for the rest of the season, the Florida defense will give this team a good chance to sweep a mediocre November slate.

USF
Drive Chart: USF Offense vs Florida Defense

A: Offense Start Point; Z: Offense End Point

• A bad USF team had its way with the Florida defense and sounded the alarm for what was in store for 2022.
• On 6 of their 10 drives, USF gained over 50% of their possible yards (starting point to end zone) as they chewed up gameclock behind a strong running game which finished with 286 yards on the night.
• The Bulls were well on their way to a seventh drive of over 50% possible yardage gained when they tripped themselves up with a fumble. The Florida defense would also snag a pick-six (Kimber from 39 yards out) and spare The Swamp from disaster by bailing out Richardson’s end zone intercepted throw by creating an interception of their own (Johnson).

This game is the perfect illustration of why being overly reliant on a bend-but-don’t-break defense can be dangerous. Extended drives – even if they end up in missed field goals or turnovers – reduces the offense’s opportunities to make plays and on this particular night allowed a far-inferior USF team to control the ball for over 36 minutes which gave the Bulls a great shot to win or at least send it to overtime.

TENNESSEE
Drive Chart: Tennessee Offense vs Florida Defense

A: Offense Start Point; Z: Offense End Point

• The Florida defense did technically provide four stops on 10 Tennessee drives (FG, downs, and two fumbles), however, if they did not step foot on the field, the Vols would have only gained 14% more yards on the day.
• Florida did make a few plays (Miller forced fumble and fourth down hold) coupled with near misses like Cox coming up the middle on third down with a free shot at Hooker before giving up a back-breaking 99-yard touchdown drive before halftime, but four consecutive touchdown drives was too much to overcome despite a late charge.

The offense cost Florida the Kentucky game, the defense – despite a few stands early – is on the hook for the loss to the Vols. The offense can put up points, but they still make mistakes. If the defense can be better than giving up 86% of possible yardage to an opponent – not asking for much, here – the Gators would be a tough out on any given week.

EASTERN WASHINGTON
Drive Chart: EWU Offense vs Florida Defense

A: Offense Start Point; Z: Offense End Point

• This is your brain. (EWU drive chart)
• This is your brain on drugs. (Tennessee drive chart)

I thought about not charting the EWU game since it was a complete mismatch, but I wanted to show the EWU drive chart next to the Tennessee drive chart to compare what will likely go down as one of the best and worst defensive performances of the year.

EWU was a success on multiple levels, but the key discrepancy between an EWU stop and a Tennessee stop is the location on the field. All stops are not created equal. Florida forced EWU to give the ball up without crossing midfield on five different drives. Tennessee drove into Florida territory on every possession. Allowing that type of drive requires a big play to be made by the defense (which is not something to rely on) or a mistake by the offense (missed field goal, turnover, etc.). If you are going to make a living relying on other team’s mistakes rather than counting on the defense to dictate the outcome of the game, prepare to be at the mercy of a good offense that excels in avoiding major mistakes.

EWU drove 49-yards to open the game and settled for a field goal. Their next drive went 57-yards and since the Eagles were moving the ball well, EWU had the confidence to go for it on fourth down. Luckily their attempt failed, however, there’s no doubt that moving the ball like that on back-to-back drives to open the game instilled enough confidence to go for it.

MISSOURI
Drive Chart: Missouri Offense vs Florida Defense

A: Offense Start Point; Z: Offense End Point

• This performance fits the “Kentucky model” we’re after for this Florida defense.
• Was it perfect? No, but there are enough wins for the defense – a pick-six and interception while Mizzou was threating (thanks, Jaydon Hill)  – that the offense had a chance to win the game without a perfect performance.

Good enough is enough this season! If the offense and defense were to both show up and play their “B game” on a week to week basis, this team can outclass most of its schedule.

LSU
Drive Chart: LSU Offense vs Florida Defense

A: Offense Start Point; Z: Offense End Point

• So much for building on the EWU and Mizzou performances…
• Mind-boggling Tennessee-like numbers by an offense who has not shown anywhere close to this ceiling.
• Just like Tennessee – there were no short-field opportunities which LSU cashed in on. The Tigers started every drive inside of their own 30-yard line and ran 12 or more plays on 4/7 scoring drives.
• Another instance of the defense giving up 86% of possible yardage to an opponent.

I know the streak as at four, but this is the third consecutive soul-sucking defeat to the Bayou Bengals. LSU has been off of its game since Burrow walked out of the door, but Florida has given up over 400 yards to the Tigers in each meeting since 2018.

How bad are things right now for this Florida defense?

The last non-turnover induced three-&-out (against a FBS opponent) – your old school, meat & potatoes, hold the bad guys on three downs, and force a punt – was the second quarter punt that ended up in a safety during the Kentucky game in Week 2.

LSU WIN TIES SERIES

If the Florida game was the only measure used to judge the LSU football program over the past four years, it would seem like the Tigers haven’t missed a beat since their national title run.

In addition to tagging Florida with a fourth consecutive defeat in the series (now tied 33-33-3 through 69 games), LSU has won 10 of the last 13 dating back to the 2010 season. Florida has not been stellar over the last decade. LSU’s highs have been higher, but the Tigers have posted at least three losses in the 9 of the last 12 seasons (2010-2021).

As Billy Napier works to build this program back to its glory days, one critical step will be holding serve in this matchup. From 2000-2009, Florida was 6-4 against LSU, translating four of those six wins into SEC title game appearances (2000, 2006, 2008, and 2009).

RUN ANTHONY RUN

According to UF Sports Communications, QB Anthony Richardson’s 81-yard touchdown run to open the fourth quarter marked Florida’s third-longest TD rush since 1996 and the longest by a UF QB in that time. Richardson’s rush is tied for the ninth-longest TD rush in the FBS this season including the third-longest by an FBS quarterback.

The only longer runs by a Gator since 1996:

La’Mical Perine (88-yard TD, Oct. 5, 2019 vs. Auburn)

Jeff Demps (84-yard TD, Sept. 24, 2011 vs. Kentucky)

HEADLINERS

Tennessee 52, Alabama 49
Bryce Young did everything he could to drag the Tide to victory, but the day belonged to Hendon Hooker and the Volunteers.  The teams combined for a total of 1,136 yards (Tenn: 567 Bama: 569) in an instant classic. Credit to Vols head coach Josh Heupel for trusting his offense after a missed field goal by Bama left Tennessee with only 15 seconds in the game on their own 32-yard line. Hooker completed two passes of 18 and 27 yards to set up 40-yard field goal for the win.

The postgame scenes from Knoxville represented all that is right with college football. In addition to snapping a 15-game losing streak to Alabama, Tennessee has positioned itself for a playoff spot even if the Vols lose to Georgia in a couple of weeks.

A cloud of cigar smoke wafts over a winning Neyland pic.twitter.com/yVJAKXeabS

— Jake Thompson (@jthomps72) October 15, 2022

Utah 43, Southern Cal 42
The Utes and Trojans played a wildly entertaining game which came down to a two-point conversion run by QB Cam Rising with 48 seconds left to knock USC from the ranks of the unbeaten. Utah leaned on its homefield advantage to  bounce back after a road loss to UCLA. USC should blitz Arizona, Cal, and Colorado before wrapping up with UCLA and Notre Dame.

Michigan 41, Penn State 17
Michigan buried the Lions under an onslaught of 418 rushing yards. RB Donovan Edwards jolted the Wolverines with a 67-yard TD run to close out their first drive of the second half and RB Blake Corum followed it up with a 61-yard TD run of his own to open the next drive. Michigan faces Michigan State, Rutgers, Nebraska, and Illinois before their finale against Ohio State.

AROUND THE COUNTRY

Texas 24, Iowa State 21
The Longhorns snapped a three game losing streak to the Cyclones by securing a late fumble. Iowa State trailed 17-7 in the second half before rattling off consecutive touchdown drives to take a 21-17 lead early in the fourth quarter. Texas responded  with a clutch 11-play, 75-yard drive  and a touchdown pass from Quinn Ewers to Xavier Worthy on 4th & goal to put the Horns ahead for good. Texas remains in the hunt for the Big XII title.

TCU 43, Oklahoma State 40 OT
TCU completed its 14-point fourth quarter comeback with a touchdown in overtime. Oklahoma State held a 30-16 lead with just under 12 minutes left to play, but  the Horned Frogs tied things up with an 8-play, 94-yard drive before holding the Cowboys to a field goal in the first half of overtime.  TCU RB Kendre Miller punched it in from two yards out to give the Frogs the win and sole possession of first place in the Big XII. Oklahoma State faces Texas in what should serve as an elimination game for the conference title this weekend in Stillwater.

Syracuse 24, NC State 9
NC State QB Devin Leary will miss the remainder of the season with an injury as the Wolfpack offense struggled to get anything going without their leader. Syracuse held NC State to 255 total yards, allowing 95 yards rushing on 38 attempts. That forced the game into the hands of Charleston Southern transfer QB Jack Chambers. Chambers managed to complete 18/30 for 160 yards, but the Wolfpack went three-and-out four times in the first half and only had three total possessions in the second half. Cuse improves to 6-0 on the season and travels to Clemson this week.

Illinois 26, Minnesota 14
The Fighting Illini improved to 6-1 after three consecutive wins against Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota. Brett Bielema is following his old Wisconsin recipe for winning games in the Big Ten West and it’s working! Illinois RB Chase Brown is a legitimate Heisman threat due to the volume of work he receives on a week-to=week basis. Brown carried the ball 41 times for 180 yards which matched Minnesota’s total yardage output on the day.

3 Power-5 players have rushed for 100 yards in their first seven games and had a 6-1 or better record since 2000.

Adrian Peterson
Ezekiel Elliott
Chase Brown #Illini // #HTTO // #famILLy pic.twitter.com/WhcjnBGgio

— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) October 19, 2022

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AROUND THE SEC

Ole Miss 48, Auburn 34
We are just two games away from an unbeaten Lane Kiffin welcoming Alabama into The Grove.  Auburn pulled within one score in the fourth quarter, but a punishing Rebels rushing attack torched the War Eagle Tigers of the Plains for 448 yards on the ground en route to an eventual two-score victory.

Kentucky 27, Mississippi State 17
A fourth quarter pick-six by MSU’s Emmanuel Forbes (59 yards) gave the struggling Bulldogs a moment of hope after closing the gap to 20-17. On the next drive, Will Levis and the Cats drove down the field to close it out with a late touchdown. Stoops turned in another defensive clinic and limited Leach’s offense to 22 yards on the ground.

Georgia 55, Vanderbilt 0
The Dores went into Athens in 2016 and upset Kirby Smart’s first Georgia team 17-16. Since that moment, the Dawgs have outscored Vandy 233-33 including a combined  117-0 in the last couple of seasons.  Georgia heads to Jacksonville  at 7-0 with, likely, a number one ranking to face the Gators.

Arkansas 52, BYU 35
Welcome back, KJ Jefferson! The Hogs quarterback threw for 367 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT to lead Arkansas to a easy win on the road against a scrappy BYU team. RB Raheim Sanders added 175 yards and 2 TDs on only 15 carries.

I lift weights 🤣💪🏽 shoutout to the strength staff 🙏🏽‼️ https://t.co/d0UMm0WigM

— KJ_Jefferson2 (@kj_jefferson2) October 16, 2022

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KEY GAMES THIS WEEKEND

12:00 PM ET FOX – Iowa at (2) Ohio State 
12:00 PM ET ABC – (14) Syracuse at (5) Clemson 
3:30 PM ET ABC – (20) Texas at (11) Oklahoma State
3:30 PM ET ABC – (7) Ole Miss at LSU
3:30 PM ET FOX/FS1 – (9) UCLA at (10) Oregon
7:00 PM ESPN – (24) Mississippi State at (6) Alabama
8:00 PM ET FOX – (17) Kansas State at (8) TCU

PLAYOFF PICTURE

Last week, Josh Pate of 247 Sports, detailed on his show The Late Kick, a scenario in which Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia create a national nightmare by earning three playoff spots for the SEC.

It’s simple – and one leg has been completed:

1. Each team wins out aside for a single head-to-head loss  (on the table)
2. Tennessee beats Bama (check)
3. Georgia beats Tennessee (Nov. 5)
4. Alabama beats Georgia (SEC Championship Game)

If the College Football Playoff  started today, this would be my Top 4:

1. Georgia (7-0) – defending national champs deserve the top spot until someone takes them down.
2. Tennessee (6-0) – Vols offense has not been held under 34 points. UGA in two weeks.
3. Ohio State (6-0) – Get past Iowa and road trip to Penn State awaits.
4. Clemson (7-0) – Will Syracuse offense test Clemson defense?

Since we’re headed toward a 12-team playoff in a few years and some folks are not thrilled about it, I wanted to put together a hypothetical 12-team playoff field with the first round playing out in mid-December at the homefield of the higher ranked team. For folks against playoff expansion, these are the games that you’re saying you don’t want to see:

(12) Oregon @ (5) Michigan
(11) Syracuse @ (6) Ole Miss
(10) Southern Cal @ (7) Alabama
(9) UCLA @ (8) TCU

FLORIDA BOWL PROJECTIONS

HEISMAN BALLOT

Tennessee has never produced a Heisman Trophy winner in school history.

Should Hooker win the Heisman at the age of 24, he would become the second oldest Heisman Trophy winner in the history of the award.  The oldest Heisman winner? HIs quarterbacks coach at Tennessee, Chris Weinke (28 years old).

1. QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
   1,817 yards passing, 15 TD, 1 INT
2. QB CJ Stroud, Ohio State
   1,737 yards passing, 24 TD, 3 INT
3. QB Caleb Williams, USC
   1,971 yards passing, 19 TD, 1 INT
4. RB Blake Corum, Michigan
   901 yards rushing, 13 TD
5. QB Michael Pennix Jr., Washington
   2,560 yards passing, 20 TD, 4 INT
6. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA
   1,510 yards passing, 15 TD, 2 INT
7. QB Max Duggan, TCU
   1,591 yards passing, 16 TD, 1 INT
8. RB Chase Brown, Illinois
   1,059 yards rushing, 4 TD
9. RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
   780 yards rushing, 10 TD
10. QB DJ Uiagalelei, Clemson
    1,665 yards passing, 17 TD, 2 INT

STAND UP  & HOLLER

If you haven’t yet, be sure to check out Will & I discuss the LSU loss along with expectations we have going forward in the 2022 season on the latest weekly episode of Stand Up & Holler on the Read & Reaction YouTube Channel.

2 BITS: FLORIDA FALLS TO LSU
4 BITS: THRID DOWN DEFENSE
6 BITS: RECRUITING UPDATES
$: EXPECTATIONS FOR THE HOMESTRETCH OF 2022