Texas A&M hosts Florida

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Both Florida and Texas A&M limp into the game this Saturday with a combined record of 7-9 and completely anemic units on opposite sides of the ball.

The Aggies are scoring 21.4 points per game against FBS opponents, putting them in a range not seen in Gainesville since Doug Nussmeier roamed the sidelines. Of course, Florida’s defense is surrendering 31.7 points per game against FBS opponents, playing at a level we haven’t seen since 2020 against Oklahoma.

Coming into this season, I think most of us assumed that the upcoming game against Texas A&M was going to be an uphill climb. The Aggies started the season ranked sixth nationally and were expected to compete for the SEC West.

Instead, A&M comes into the game with a 3-5 record and 1-4 in the SEC. Jimbo Fisher – lauded for his historic 2022 recruiting class – is now being questioned in College Station, but the buyout associated with his contract may cost more than the aforementioned recruiting class (allegedly, according to Nick Saban).

The result is that Florida – no great shakes itself at 4-4 overall and 1-4 in the SEC – has an opportunity to get a win over a wounded opponent. To do so, they’ll have to paper over their weakness better than A&M papers over theirs.

Texas A&M’s Offense

There’s something really weird that pops out when you look at the statistics associated with Texas A&M’s offense: they rank 46th in the country in yards per rush attempt, but they rank behind Vanderbilt in their ability to run the ball by the stats Predicted Points Added (PPA). For comparison, Florida’s PPA is 3.5-times higher than A&M’s.

What this says is that there is a disconnect between how efficient the Aggies are on the ground and how effective they are on the ground.

Sure enough, when you look a little bit deeper, what you find is that Texas A&M has surrendered 43 tackles for loss, including 17 sacks (which are included in rushing stats). That is a monstrous number (Florida is at 29 for the year) and suggests to me that while lots of focus has been on the quarterback position in College Station, that the fundamental issue for Texas A&M is that they can’t effectively run the ball.

I’ve written repeatedly about how Florida’s offense is very feast or famine. The Gators get lots of explosive plays, but then when they aren’t able to get those sorts of plays, the offense stagnates. You can see that in Florida’s overall offensive success rate of 41 percent.

Texas A&M has an identical success rate of 41 percent this season. The issue is that the Aggies aren’t nearly as explosive as the Gators.

Florida has 24 plays of more than 30 yards and 14 more than 40. A&M has 14 plays more than 30 yards and only 5 more than 40. What this means is that they have to strategically and painstakingly move the ball down the field, and the minute they surrender one of those tackles for loss, they can’t recover.

If you’re an A&M fan, the hope you have is that 5-star true freshman Conner Weigman is going to be different than either Max Johnson or Haynes King. Weigman certainly acquitted himself well against Ole Miss, throwing for 338 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs. However, I do think it’s instructive to note that he only averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, meaning that while his QB rating was 158.2 (very good), his Yards Above Replacement (YAR) – my proprietary stat that measures a QBs passing and running contribution – of -0.32, or below average.

What that means is that even if Weigman replicates his performance against Ole Miss, the Aggies are still probably going to struggle to move the ball consistently. If the Gators can stop the explosive plays, they’ll have a chance to shut A&M down.

Florida’s Defense

But therein lies the problem. The Gators haven’t stopped much of anyone this season.

Florida has surrendered 132 plays of 10-plus yards (compared to 105 for A&M). Of those, 89 have gone for 10-19 yards. Those are the killer plays as they usually stem from a short throw turned into a bigger gain after a broken tackle, a gaping hole in the defensive front due to a lack of gap integrity or a throw to the tight end down the middle.

That’s where I get really nervous for Florida, not because A&M has a tight end like Brock Bowers or Darnell Washington from a week ago. Instead, what makes me nervous is that the Aggies really, really like throwing the ball to its running back.

Devon Achane has 33 receptions so far in 2022. Ainias Smith had 15 receptions, many of them out of the backfield, prior to a season-ending injury. But if you compare the two, Achane is averaging 5.9 yards per reception while Smith was averaging 19.4.

Yes, Evan Stewart is the guy A&M tries to get the ball to on the outside, but Florida has guys who can at least match-up with Stewart and fellow receiver Moose Muhammad. The place where Florida really struggles is when a linebacker like Ventrell Miller or Amari Burney ends up outside in coverage.

The solution to this is playing zone and gang tackling to make sure you get the guy on the ground. But that has proven to be a challenge for the Gators.

This is a third-and-long for A&M. Ole Miss decides to rush three defenders and drops into a zone. They’re able to get pressure from a stunt up-front (i.e. they aren’t afraid Weigman is going to take off) and Weigman drops it off to Achane. Look at how much of a runway Achane has when he catches the ball. But the outside defender funnels him back towards the inside to his teammates for an easy stop.

Florida has failed to do that multiple times this season. It isn’t just the third-and-longs, but the inability to funnel receivers back to help and then gang tackle is a big reason that the defense has struggled. At some point in this game, the defense is going to have an opportunity to get a stop and it will come down to whether they are fundamentally sound tacklers or whether Achane can break one.

Because when he gets into the open field, watch out.

Takeaway

In many ways, this game is going to be decided on third down.

Multiple times, Ole Miss dropped into a zone like I showed above and Weigman threw to the open man, even if it was a check-down. That’s why he has yet to throw an interception yet in his young career. Of course, the Aggies only scored 28 points, in part because they were 5-15 on third down (36%), just slightly better than their season average (34%).

On the other side of the ball, the Gators surrendered 6-12 on third down last week against Georgia (and 2 of 3 on fourth down). That inability to get the Bulldogs off the field except with a turnover is a big reason why Georgia put up 42 points. That has been a theme for this team, as it has surrendered third downs at a 53-percent clip.

Normally, my previews focus on Anthony Richardson and the Gators offense. After all, that is the unit that has to carry a poor defense and if Richardson turns the ball over, things get really tough for the Gators. But given how well Richardson played on the road against Tennessee, I think he’s going to be fine on the road against A&M.

That doesn’t mean I think he’ll throw for 300 yards and 4 TDs, but he’s going to do enough to win the game. The question will be, as it’s been all year for both of these teams, whether A&M’s offense or Florida’s defense can win on third down.

Whoever does that wins the game, and as much as Florida has struggled, Weigman is still a true freshman.

Gators (+3) win, 27-20.

Picks this season: 5-2, 3-4 ATS