The Upside of Anthony Richardson
What to make of AR’s NFL stock

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Anthony Richardson has significant upside, and he showed it while absolutely rocking the NFL combine this weekend.

Not only did he run an official 40-yard dash of 4.43 seconds, but he set a combine record for a QB with a 40.5 inch vertical and a broad jump of 10’9”. This isn’t a surprise to any Gators fan who watched him this year. The talent has never been debatable. It’s been the consistent application of that talent that has been frustrating.

But here’s the thing about the NFL. They don’t care about what you are today. They only care about who you can turn into when you get into the league. That makes Richardson both a tantalizing talent, but also fear inducing for a general manager because imagine what happens if you pass up on him and he becomes a star?

We don’t have to look too far for an example of this. In 2017, Patrick Mahomes was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs with the 10th pick in the draft. The Chicago Bears took Mitchell Trubisky with the 2nd pick in the same draft, trading 2017 1st, 3rd and 4th rounders as well as a 2018 3rd rounder to make the pick.

Ryan Pace was the Bears’ GM in 2017 and John Fox was the head coach. Fox was fired and Matt Nagy was hired in 2018. Both Pace and Nagy were gone prior to the 2022 season while the Chiefs were winning their second Super Bowl with Mahomes at the helm.

That’s why Richardson is projected as a top-15 pick, or potentially even higher. Will Levis might be a nice player in the NFL (I doubt it, but hey, maybe he will be). C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young may win you a bunch of games.

But the only player with the potential to change the fortunes of an NFL franchise like Mahomes is Richardson. And that means if you’re an NFL general manager, if he does get taken by a team later than yours in the draft when you went with the safe pick of Levis, Stroud or Young, there’s nowhere to hide.

You’re going to end up out of a job.

Beyond passing

Richardson was clearly inconsistent in 2022 for Florida, but that isn’t the whole story when it comes to his statistical profile.

His QB rating of 131.0 was pretty pedestrian (11th in the SEC). But his Expected Points Added (EPA) per play was 0.396, which was fifth in the conference. This goes a long way towards explaining why the Gators offense ranked fifth in the conference in yards per play as well.

This is also why I developed Yards Above Replacement (YAR),  my proprietary metric to evaluate QBs that takes both a QBs running and passing ability into account. By that metric, Richardson finished the season with a YAR of 1.07, also fifth in the conference.

In my estimation, that’s why Richardson is a way better prospect than Levis, who had a QB rating of 151.9 but a YAR of -0.08 in 2022. If you took enough sacks and were enough of a negative in the running game to drive your value down like that in college, it’s only going to get worse in the pros.

But Richardson has no such limitations. I think it’s worth taking a closer look at some hidden plays to examine what I mean.

On this play, Utah brings a linebacker on the blitz who comes free. Richardson is able to escape enough to throw the ball away. This drive wound up fizzling out around mid-field, but it was long enough that it allowed the Gators defense to rest after a goal-line stop.

Had Richardson taken the sack, it would have been second-and-19, where you’d typically expect a punt. Instead, Florida was able to flip the field.

Here’s another example where the threat of Richardson running the ball opens up something else for the offense. Just watch the defensive end when Richardson has the ball at the mesh point with the running back. He’s deathly afraid that Richardson is going to get to the outside, which gives Florida six blockers for six defenders. The play is blocked well and so Montrell Johnson runs into the end zone untouched.

Neither of these plays require Richardson to get more accurate or improve anything through the passing game. He brings these things immediately to the table for any team that drafts him, which is valuable even if he has limitations through the air.

Air limitations?

But what about those limitations through the air? Are criticisms of Richardson valid?

Well, I think the answer is more nuanced than just a yes or no answer. I think it actually is more of a “not yet” answer, where Richardson has shown enough that I believe he has the ability to be a star throwing the ball, but he’s not there yet.

It used to be if a QB struggled with accuracy in college, the conventional wisdom was that they were going to struggle in the pros as well. That has been turned on its head recently with the success of Josh Allen (56.3% completions his junior year) and in some ways Jalen Hurts as well.

Hurts is perhaps the most interesting comp for Richardson, as in his first season as a starter he completed 62.8% of his passes with a QB rating of 139.1, but rushed for 954 yards (5.0 yards per rush) and led Alabama to the National Championship Game.

Hurts was inconsistent again his sophomore season, with a QB rating of 150.2 but only completing 60.4% of his passes. He was inconsistent enough that he lost his job to Tua Tagovailoa in the National Championship Game that year and then the next year after a fall camp battle.

I didn’t think there was any way that Hurts was going to succeed in the NFL, even after he transferred to Oklahoma and lit things up. He just wasn’t accurate enough to succeed, or so I thought.

But what I (and others) missed was that the NFL is now moving towards utilizing the skills that players like Hurts bring to the table. The Eagles this year used read-option concepts to essentially run triple-options out of the shotgun with Hurts, ensuring that the defense was always wrong. They used the “Bush Push” that is now legal in the NFL to great advantage and made fourth-and-short conversions essentially automatic. And Hurts improved immensely, completing 66.5% of his throws in 2022.

So can Richardson make that sort of leap? I think there are reasons to believe that he can.

On this play, Richardson sees two-deep safeties and Florida has the perfect play called for that coverage. Ricky Pearsall (#1) is running an out route while Xzavier Henderson (#3) is running a post. If the safety stays deep with Henderson, AR throws the ball over the linebacker to Pearsall. If the safety jumps on Pearsall (like he does here), AR throws the ball to Henderson.

On this play, Richardson again identifies that the defense is in two-deep coverage. How do I know he understood this? Because at the snap (where I have the clip paused), he is looking towards his left and the Kentucky linebacker. If that linebacker drops towards the middle of the field, he hits the slot receiver running a hitch. But if the linebacker goes towards the slot receiver, that means there will be an opening between the safeties.

Both of these throws are awful. But the thought process that went into the throws is excellent. I chose plays from the Kentucky game – Richardson’s worst game of the season – on purpose. Even when he was playing horribly, he was still making good decisions. He just wasn’t able to execute the throw.

But he has the tools to execute the throws. This is correctable with better and more consistent footwork and mechanics.

Typically when you look at a QB who struggles with accuracy at the college level, it’s not a matter of whether he can make the throw or not. Instead, it’s tilted more towards not making the right read and spending too much time trying to fit the ball into tight spots.

That’s not the case with Richardson.

Takeaway

I’m not sure if Anthony Richardson is going to win a Super Bowl.

But if you made me choose either yes or no at gunpoint, I’d pick yes, especially if he gets drafted where I expect him to get drafted. And that expectation is the fifth pick to the Seattle Seahawks.

There are a bunch of reasons why I think the Seahawks make sense.

First, the Seahawks have that fifth pick because they traded Russell Wilson to Denver last offseason. They also have the 20th pick in the draft, which means they can take a high-risk player with that first pick and take a “safer” player with the 20th pick. Essentially, taking a player of Richardson’s ilk isn’t a feast or famine decision.

Second, the Seahawks have Geno Smith at QB and so don’t have to force Richardson into the lineup immediately. That’s important because pretty much everyone is in agreement that Richardson is going to need a little bit of time to learn and develop regardless of where he goes. Smith made the Pro Bowl last season, but nobody believes he’s leading the Seahawks to a Super Bowl, which means he’s a placeholder for the next QB. Richardson could be that guy.

Finally, the current Seahawks staff has built an offense around a QB limited through the air initially but who had significant physical gifts on the ground in Russell Wilson. Pete Carroll and company got Wilson after he had a QB rating of 191.8 as a grad transfer at Wisconsin, but in the previous three years at NC State, Wilson had a QB rating of 135.5 and completed 57.8% of his throws. The Seahawks might think Richardson is essentially a bigger, more athletic version of Wilson who just didn’t have that last year at Wisconsin.

Wilson had to stay in college because he was only 5’11” and 204 pounds. Richardson is 6’4” and 244 pounds and could make the leap now on his physical abilities. He also ran his 40-yard dash in 4.43 seconds while Wilson ran his in 4.55 seconds. And there’s no disputing he has a way stronger arm.

None of this guarantees Richardson will be a success. He’s going to have to get much, much better. He’s going to have to find the right fit for his specific skill sets. He is a risk. But that’s the reason I think Richardson doesn’t fall past the Seahawks.  Their General Manager – John Schneider – has been in that position since 2010 and has already won a Super Bowl. He doesn’t have to worry about his job the way other GMs might have to, which means he can take shot at a player with insane upside.

And while Richardson is a risk, I think looking at the film suggests he is less of a risk than his stats may suggest. We may look back a decade from now and wonder how all of Richardson’s immense talent never materialized into winning in the NFL. Or we may look back and wonder how multiple GMs could have passed over him.

And if your goal is winning the Super Bowl, I think it’s pretty obvious that you raise your chances of winning one with Richardson more than with Levis, Young or Stroud. That’s also true if your QB is Justin Fields (Bears), Kyle Allen (Texans), Kyler Murray (Cardinals) or Matt Ryan (Colts).

Because I want Richardson to succeed, I hope he makes it to the Seahawks. But I don’t think he should.