Read & Reaction 2023 Florida Gators Preseason Magazine: Pre-order NOW
Pre-order NOW!
It’s time for the Second Annual Read & Reaction Florida Gators Football Preview Magazine. This year, we’re taking pre-orders for fans who want to get a hard copy version. The digital version will be available as well for those who prefer that medium when the magazine officially launches.
Launch day is Memorial Day (May 29). To get your magazine by then, pre-order by May 1 and get a discount!
The magazine is going to contain over 70 pages dedicated to your Florida Gators! What better Father’s Day (or late Mother’s Day) gift than the gift of reading about their favorite team and learning about where the Gators stand in 2023 and what to expect out of head coach Billy Napier in his second season at the helm?
Order today!
Catching Georgia: April Recruiting Update
I’ve written a lot about recruiting in April over the past five years or so. In just about every case, I’ve been writing about whether panic is warranted given the state of the current recruiting class. Thankfully, Billy Napier has ended that streak.
With the commitment of safety Xavier Filsaime during the spring game, Billy Napier now has four players in the top-44 of the 247Sports composite rankings. That’s after having one player ranked that high in both of the 2022 (Kamari Wilson, #44) and 2023 (Kelby Collins, #42) classes.
This is a major step forward in recruiting.
The job isn’t done, but since I’ve taken the time in the past to evaluate classes that were lagging behind, I thought it only fair to evaluate one that’s surging ahead. Suffice it to say that if Napier is able to keep up this level of recruiting, he’s not going to be comparing himself to Kentucky or South Carolina or even Tennessee.
He’s going to be measuring himself against Georgia and Alabama.
The 2024 class as it stands
Currently, Florida has only seven commits in the 2024 class. That might not seem like a lot, but if we go back to the 2023 class for comparison, you’ll see why that’s a big deal.
On April 5th last year, Napier only had one commit – Aaron Gates, the 276th ranked overall player – who wound up dropping to a ranking of 335 and is one of the less heralded defensive back prospects coming into Gainesville this year.
By June 25, Napier had added Isaiah Nixon (#194), Gavin Hill (#259), Knijeah Harris (#389), Creed Whittemore (#467), Bryce Lovett (#558), Tyree Patterson (#712) and Tommy Kinsler (#965). Those rankings changed a bit from June to national signing day, but they amounted to an average player rating of 88.9 and Nixon, Whittemore, Patterson and Kinsler all decommitted.
And even by August 2, Napier’s 2023 class contained just one top-100 commit, four commits ranked 101-200 and four more ranked 201-300. The average player rating was 91.14 and it was pretty clear that a top-10 class was going to take a huge finish.
If we do the same analysis for Florida’s class right now that I did for the Gators last April or for the entire class, the difference is night and day.
Florida has already doubled-up its number of top-100 commits from last season and has a 71 percent top-300 percentage. The average player rating is more than two points above last season as well. If all Napier did was close out this class with exactly the class he had last year, it is leaps and bounds better.
Rival Comparison
Of course, none of this matters if you’re not catching up – or at least matching – your main rivals. For Florida, that means FSU, LSU, Georgia and Alabama.
I was actually tempted to leave FSU off as a rival. After all, they haven’t been much of a rival on the recruiting trail recently. Even with Napier’s struggles, Mike Norvell and company finished behind the Gators’ 2023 class in number of commits, point total and average player rating.
Still, these are teams Florida plays, or hopes to play, every year. And so it is important to metric where the Gators stand against each of them.
I’ve often talked about recruiting being tiered. Especially early on in a cycle it can be difficult to compare classes as apples-to-apples, but you can get a feel for what tier they are in. Well, looking at these main rivals, it’s pretty clear which tier Florida is in: Alabama’s and Georgia’s.
A couple of caveats: Both the Bulldogs (3) and Tide (2) have more 5-star recruits than Florida (1). But given the number of top-50 guys Florida already has in the fold, that’s really being nitpicky. Also, it is still really early and as I mentioned, nearly half of Florida’s commits from June decided to decommit. I’ll be much more comfortable making this comparison in August, but at this point you couldn’t ask for much more from Napier.
Finishing Strong
Florida currently ranks second overall in the country in average player rating, tied with Georgia and slightly behind Alabama. That’s it. There isn’t anyone else with a higher quality class than Florida.
That’s particularly significant because Napier put together a relatively strong class in 2023, he just couldn’t close the deal on elite prospects like Samson Okunlola or Cormani McClain. Had those two been added to the fold, Florida’s point total would have been 286.6, or good enough for seventh nationally.
But the Gators already have elite talent in the fold with DJ Lagway, Myles Graham, Adarius Hayes and now Xavier Fulsaime for the 2024 class. They’re also still putting on the full-court press with guys like receiver Jeremiah Smith (2nd nationally, an Ohio State commit), edge rusher Colin Simmons (3rd nationally out of Duncanville, TX) and cornerback Charles Lester III (18th nationally out of Sarasota).
Hit on any one of those guys and it would likely be difficult for this class to fall outside of the top-5. Hit on two of them, and you’re talking about the top-3 classes that are necessary to compete year-in-year-out in the SEC.
I’ve had folks tell me that because of NIL, the third recruiting year is now the “bump” class. I don’t think that’s what’s happening here though. Rather, I think that Florida’s discontent with the Rashada situation coupled with changes in Florida law have allowed them to ensure that the NIL portion of their program is aligned with the rest of the recruiting apparatus. It’s amazing how much of a difference that makes.
What that means is that if Napier can finish out this class as strongly as he’s started it, Florida is going to be back amongst the elite in the recruiting world, a necessary prerequisite to winning big in College Football.
It’s still going to require patience. After all, just about every coach to win the SEC since 2000 had an absolute monster second recruiting class (average national ranking of 4.7). Napier was not able to secure that piece, which means it is likely going to take him longer than it took Saban or Smart to start knocking on the championship door like they did in their second seasons.
But by the looks of the 2024 class so far, Napier is going to get a chance to knock.
Mike
Georgia has almost twice as many top 100 players already. !! And 9. Top. 200. Compared to 4 for the gators . Napier loses a lot of commitments before signing day Georgia rarely loses anyone . I admit it’s better but judging anything in April shows very little . A better judge would be how many players Florida beat out Georgia and Alabama for . I doubt that’s any .Georgia has over twice as many top 200 players in Florida. That’s not catching Georgia ! Not even close but good sunshine pumping for gator fans in a gator program that’s had to straight losing seasons
Mike
After viewing the spring game with two quarterbacks that are not SEC caliber and a defense last year that was the worst in gator history. It’s very hard for any rational gator fan to believe that another losing season is not in the future. But keep on pumping sunshine to sell magazines .
Will Miles
Always good to hear from you.
Spike
I’m not sure Mike actually reads your articles. Historically, you are far from a sunshine pumper. I think most would call you more negative than positive. Not saying I agree but that is the normal criticisms.
I am hoping we can keep the momentum and land some more big fish but I’m not super confident.
LANCE
Definitely progress. For the record, I’ve pointed that because of ESD in December that the third class might be the new bump class and that’s mainly for G5 to P5 coaches. That’s because it takes time to build relationships. As you have noted, the class is now generally set by August. That gives 9 months to build relationships that didn’t exist prior to a G5 being hired. I could be wrong, but it will be played out many times over the next few years, hopefully not at Florida anymore.
Adriel
Good article Will. You are not pumping sunshine. As you point out, the start of this class thus far gives us legitimate reason to believe this class could be Top 5. Whether the rest of the class continues at this level remains to be seen. No doubt the lack of top end talent in last year’s class was disappointing, especially given how loaded the State of Florida was. The state is not loaded this year, and this is no longer a bump recruiting year, making it much more difficult to land a top 5 class. This makes the fact that Napier already has an impressive amount of top end talent committed in this year’s class that much more impressive. In fact, three of our four Top 50 commits are from out of state. If Florida finally has its NIL straightened out, coupled with Napier’s recruiting prowess that he has already shown, we have every reason to be cautiously optimistic, which is what Will is pumping in this article.
Joe Friday
I’m no longer surprised at your lack of knowledge, or could it be just willful ignorance? You claim that going to UF is the reason that O’Cyrus Torrence may become a 1st round pick in the upcoming NFL draft. That’s patent nonsense! Last year a guard from Chattanooga was picked in the 1st round. The NFL doesn’t care what school you’re at. By the way, Torrence hasn’t been picked yet, so it’d be prudent to not crow before dawn. You have a tendency’s to do that. Before last year, you crowed about Anthony Richardson. He was a mediocre college quarterback. Who cares how where he’s drafted? Does that change the fact that he had a losing record in college? You scoffed at the prediction that UF would finish fourth in the SEC East. They finished tied for fourth, only ahead of Vandy. How many Gators will be drafted this year? Isn’t that a clue that that college and the NFL are different games? Personally, I don’t care about a player’s NFL prospects. That doesn’t win any games in college. If it does, and Florida has many players drafted, isn’t it a logical conclusion that Billy Napier is a terrible coach? He had , in your words, a “lottery pick” at QB, the most important position in football, and produced a losing record.
I also think your lack of respect for FSU’s Mike Norvell is ludicrous. Did Napier actually recruit better than Norvell last year? Looking at recruiting ratings is silly, especially when they only favored Florida slightly. Did UF even get a QB? How about an offensive tackle that compares to Lucas Simmons? Norvell has proven to be a pretty good evaluator and developer of them. He got the QB he wanted. He was a three star, but he flipped him from Ohio State. That should tell you something. In this year’s class, he chose a guy who has never started a game in high school, Luke Kromenhoek. Is D J Lagway better than him? He’s higher rated, but I bet Norvell would rather have his guy. Another guy rated higher than him, another QB from Savannah who was chosen as that city’s player of the year, just committed to Tennessee. But at the camp in Orlando, with the other Savannah QB, it was Kromenhoek who was head and shoulders above everyone else. He was selected for the Elite 11, not the guy going to Tennessee. But Kromenhoek’s rating is still lower.
I just point this out to show that ratings aren’t as important as you seem to think they are. You should remember that coaches, not recruiting rating services, know who the best players are. And physical attributes are just a part of their choice. If physical prowess was the most important attribute, Anthony Richardson, instead of Stetson Bennett, would have went to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation.
You claim FSU got “lucky” last year. Luck had nothing to do with it. It’s called coaching. It’s called identifying your weaknesses and fixing them. In 2021, FSU had one of the worst receiving corps in the country. Last year they had Johnny Wilson and others. Is there a receiver, anywhere in college, that strikes more fear in a defense going into next season. Norvell has addressed tight end and both lines of scrimmage this year. I bet he’s been just as successful in this as he was last year with his receivers.
Florida and FSU is, according to you, a “”tossup” this year? Are you deranged? Florida doesn’t even know who’s going to be its QB. And the prospective starter is likely to be worse than the mediocre Anthony Richardson. Here’s a hint, that’ll probably fall on deaf ears. Jordan Travis will be better this upcoming season. If you’re not scared of that prospect, then you are just someone who has zero objectivity and thinks “data” provides answers. “Sun Belt” Billy is Florida’s coach. Perhaps you should not forget that.
Marcus
I’m a believer in what Billy is attempting to build. Similar to Lance, my suspicion is the bump class will more likely be associated with a coach’s third year depending on circumstances. My main concern at this point is whether the team will muster enough wins this year to buy Napier time to see the young talent blossom.
Keep up the good work.
BRUCE Eklund
Per the Athletic:
Since 2009 64.7% of UGA’s 5-star signees and 28.3% of its 4-star signees were drafted. Those %s rank ninth and eighth, respectively, amongst the 65 Power Five programs.
Conversely, only 30.8% of Auburn’s 5-star signees, 40.0% of Tennessee’s 5-star signees, 44.4% of Ole Miss’ five-star signees, and 47.6% of LSU’s 5-star signees were drafted over that same period. Those %s rank in the bottom-10 of Power Five programs.
Clark
Building the program back will happen incrementally. Napier’s approach is to seek quality. Thus the third year will be his first foundation class to build his program on. Relax Gator Nation he’ll git er done!5
Joe Friday
Just to give you an update on reality. Charles Lester is NOT coming to Florida. He said so! He said Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State & FSU are the ONLY schools he’s considering. Here’s a hint…he’s going to FSU.
As for projecting games like FSU being a “tossup”, Las Vegas, as of now, thinks that’s ludicrous. UF is a double digit underdog, an according to Draftkings, against Utah, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia, & FSU. Tennessee & FSU are being played in the “Swamp.” The neutral site? Georgia’s favored by 22!
Upsets happen, like Vandy whipping Florida last year, but it’s eye opening how Florida is a huge underdog to FIVE teams right now. As Lennon- McCartney told us: “Living is easy with eyes closed. Misunderstanding all you see.”
It’s time for you to open your eyes. I still haven’t heard a logical reason , for instance, for Florida’s defense to be anything but a continuing dumpster fire. You’re a statistics geek, so you know that having quite a few that are in triple digits is a huge problem. I don’t see an extreme influx of new talent. The same players are, basically, there. There’s a new coordinator who seems to have a higher penchant for aggressiveness, but that’s just a sign of weakness in my opinion. A seasoned QB loves to see a defense that’s forced to gamble because they have no choice because they’re not good enough to just whip or cover the players in front of them. That’s not even mentioning the elephant in the room…QB.