Toss Up: Attrition and the Vols

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Editor’s Note: This is part of a series called Toss Up (see the first part here), because in our preseason magazine (order a digital copy here), Nick and I picked whether Florida should be expected to win, lose or if it would be a toss up. This series will look at why some of those games are toss-ups (especially when the Gators are being picked to be so bad by many this season) and an acknowledgment that while the Gators have questions, so do a lot of their opponents.

During SEC Media Day, Tennessee was a strong selection for second place in the SEC East. The Vols actually garnered 14 first-place votes (for the SEC overall!), indicating a sea change in the way the Tennessee program is perceived by those who cover the teams.

But the recency bias to that view is pretty strong. Yes, the Gators went 6-7 in 2021 and again in 2022, while Tennessee improved from 7-6 in 2021 to 11-2 in 2022. That might indicate that one program is progressing while the other is remaining stagnant. This was further emphasized by the five-point UT win over Florida in Knoxville last season that felt like more than five points.

But it’s hard to ignore that the Gators have won 16 of the last 18 meetings between these two teams. And the last time the Vols won two in a row was in 2003 and 2004 when many of the players in this year’s matchup weren’t even born.

And it doesn’t take into account that success in college football is rarely linear.

Josh Heupel is a brilliant offensive coach, so while I suspect there is going to be a drop-off in QB performance from Hendon Hooker to Joe Milton, that’s not really where I think any sort of significant backslide is going to come from for the Vols. After all, Heupel had offenses at UCF that ranked 6th, 5th and 8th in points per game in his three years as head coach.

But those teams got progressively worse, going from 12-1 to 10-3 to 6-4 in the 2020 COVID season. The reason was clearly the defensive side of the ball, with UCF going from ranking 36th to 42nd to 92nd on that side of the ball in those three seasons.

When a program decides to change coaches, it upends the vast majority of the roster planning that was taking place under the previous regime. Players who liked the previous staff better transfer. Those who the new staff doesn’t evaluate as talented enough are urged to transfer. And perhaps most importantly, a new hire has just a few weeks to secure their transition recruiting class prior to early signing day.

That transition recruiting class is the one that takes center stage in the third year for a head coach. That’s a big reason why programs often see a blip (or a dive) in the third year, even when the coach ends up being a huge success. This step back happened to Urban Meyer at Florida and Kirby Smart at Georgia among others. This just confirms that regardless of your ability to scheme, motivate and develop, it’s hard to get past that your team’s foundation is built on a recruiting class that wasn’t elite to begin with.

Heupel got a worse draw than most for his transition class. Because of the McNugget shenanigans of his predecessor, Jeremy Pruitt, Heupel was hired on January 27, 2021, or more than a month after early signing day. He’s also had to deal with the effects of the transfer portal in a way coaches didn’t have to a decade ago.

But none of those valid reasons change the facts. And just look at Tennessee’s 2021 recruiting class.

• QB Kaidon Salter – now at Liberty
• RB Tiyon Evans – now at Louisville
• ILB Aaron Willis – now at Houston
• ATH Kaemen Marley – in transfer portal
• TE Miles Campbell – now at NC Central
• OT Will Parker – now at UAB
• WR Walker Merrill – now at Wake Forest

Those are the top-seven players from that class, all gone. In fact, just four of the 17 enrollees from that class are on the Vols roster in 2023. This explains Tennessee’s heavy use of the transfer portal under Heupel thus far, including 10 transfers in 2021, 8 in 2022 and another 8 in 2023. The result is a team with 31 scholarship seniors, but only 9 scholarship juniors, three of whom just transferred in.

Tennessee struck gold with Hooker in the transfer portal when he decided to come over from Virginia Tech, and the Vols hope to do so again with Joe Milton. It’s hard to doubt Heupel in that regard given his track record with offenses, but I also find it hard to believe that Milton, even if good, will be as good as Hooker.

And I already cited Heupel’s track record with defenses at UCF. Those units got worse every year and really regressed in year three, once his players were starting to take on an increased role. Add to that the attrition I mentioned above, and I’d be really concerned about that side of the ball if I were a Vols fan.

Last year’s leader in sacks – OLB Byron Young – is gone, as are linebacker Jeremy Banks and DB Trevon Flowers. A lot of experience is back in LB Aaron Beasley, safeties Jaylen McCullough and Wesley Walker and STAR Tamarion McDonald. But the question with recruiting is often not the starters, but what happens when there is an injury or overuse.

Florida fans certainly remember Gervon Dexter playing well in the first half of games last season only to wear down as the game went along. Tennessee is going to need freshmen or transfers to step up in a big way to avoid a similar fate.

On the surface, Tennessee’s defense took a major leap in 2022, improving to 30th in points per game allowed vs. FBS opponents (97th in 2021). But that should have been expected, given the Vols had the 61st ranked defense in yards per play allowed in 2021. Defensive performance almost always improves points-wise when the underlining yards per play metric is better. That metric did get better for Tennessee, who improved slightly to 42nd, but that says that while the defense did improve, it wasn’t the giant step forward that it appears when just looking at points allowed.

With the attrition the roster has experienced, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the unit take a step back. That’s especially true after seeing what South Carolina was able to do to the Vols last season, indicating some weak spots on the unit even with an 11-2 season in the rear-view mirror.

Does this mean I fault folks for ranking Tennessee as second in the East? Not really. Every team has holes, and given Tennessee’s rise last year, it makes sense for media members to remember that and rank them accordingly. But I will leave you with this.

Against the six best offenses that Tennessee faced last season – ranked 2nd, 7th, 29th, 32nd, 46th and 50th in yards per play gained – the Vols surrendered 35.3 points per game (and scored 35.8 points). Against the six worst offenses Tennessee faced last season – ranked 61st, 85th, 90th, 92nd, 105th and 106th in yards per play gained – the Vols surrendered 10.0 points per game. That’s the profile of a team that feasted on bad offenses and struggled otherwise.

For all of its faults, the Florida offense fit into that top-tier, which is why they scored 33 against Tennessee and made it a game in Knoxville. This year’s game is in Gainesville, Joe Milton may be good but it’s hard to imagine him being better than Hooker, and I think there are signs that point towards a defensive slide backwards for the Vols.

Undoubtedly Florida has holes on its roster, but so do the Vols. That’s why this one is a toss-up, regardless of what you heard coming out of SEC Media Days.