Keys to a Florida Victory over FSU

Florida has one last chance to end its current 4-game losing streak when they take on fifth ranked Florida State.

A week ago, this looked like a major mismatch, as FSU was about to take on North Alabama to go 11-0 while Florida was going to have to fight a top-10 Missouri on the road just to get bowl eligible. While Florida fell, it was a last second loss after losing its starting QB. But FSU lost its starting QB as well against North Alabama, as Jordan Travis went down with a gruesome leg injury.

It’s sad that it takes an injury to make us rethink this game, but the Travis injury has done just that. FSU has been the better team all year, but that has been with their senior leader at the helm. Now they have to deal with the pressure of a rivalry game on the road with a backup QB knowing that a loss to the Gators likely ends their playoff hopes.

The playoff implications got real this week as FSU was dropped to #5 in the playoff rankings. One loss and their season goals are out the window. If Florida could provide that loss, it would electrify the fan base.

Given the results we’ve seen thus far, that’s something Billy Napier could really use.

Tate Rodemaker

The biggest question for Gators fans is who exactly is Tate Rodemaker, and will he be able to step in and lead FSU to be at least a competent offense?

Rodemaker was a 3-star prospect out of Valdosta, GA (652nd ranked player in the country) in 2020. He’s a pro-style QB who completed 67 percent of his throws his senior year in high school for 10.4 yards per attempt. Those are pretty good throwing stats. Rodemaker provided very little on the ground in high school though, running 42 times for -13 yards his senior season.

This profile has continued on at FSU, where Rodemaker has averaged 8.2 yards per attempt on 93 attempts but has run 22 times for 9 yards. This suggests that Rodemaker is going to do most of his damage with his arm and not his legs.

But it’s more than just the stats. Last week against North Alabama, Rodemaker didn’t even present a running threat at all. That is an important thing for Florida defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong to key on.

You can see what I mean on this play. Both the outside linebacker and defensive end collapse to stop the running back on the play, leaving the backside wide open if Rodemaker was to pull the ball from the running back. But he doesn’t do that, and while FSU is able to advance the ball five yards against an overmatched defense, against better defenses this would be a run for no gain.

Rodemaker isn’t necessarily a statue out there, but you can see on this play the maximum you’re going to get out of him in the running game.

North Alabama gets way out of its rushing lanes and is in man-to-man coverage. That means the vast majority of defenders have their backs to the QB and he has a wide open field to navigate. Rodemaker gains 10 yards, but this is really the worst-case scenario. The significance is that Florida will be able to play man-to-man – something Armstrong likes doing – without worrying about getting gashed like they’ve had to against K.J. Jefferson, Jayden Daniels and Brady Cook.

That important because Rodemaker is a competent and accurate passer when his first option is there.

North Alabama is in a cover-4 look here and it’s obvious from the pre-snap alignment. That means there will be a hole on the outside beneath the corner and over the linebacker. Rodemaker hits his drop, takes one hitch, and launches the ball accurately downfield for an explosive play to Jaheim Bell.

This is easy pitch-and-catch stuff. But it all originates because Rodemaker was confident about where to go with the ball based on what he saw pre-snap. But like most young QBs, Rodemaker is going to lock-on to a receiver especially when he gets some pressure.

This is a first-and-10 play, so Rodemaker doesn’t need to force this ball into a tight spot. But North Alabama is able to get a little bit of pressure and Rodemaker stays locked on to his receiver as he steps up in the pocket. This is a successful play given the result, but I’ve circled a receiver coming wide open over the middle. That’s an easier throw to make and one that a more experienced QB probably makes. Rodemaker just isn’t there yet.

But what that means is that Florida State needs to help Rodemaker by neutralizing the pass rush. The first way to do that is to run the ball successfully, thereby setting the defense up for play-action fakes. But the second way is something they ran successfully a bunch against North Alabama: screen passes.

This one starts with a staple of the FSU offense: motion that looks like a screen to wide receiver Keon Coleman (#4). Coleman is a huge threat, so four players on defense head out that way to take on the blockers. But that allows two offensive linemen to slip out the other direction along with running back Caziah Holmes (#26). Holmes is then able to outrun safeties who are out of position to the end zone.

Florida has been gashed a lot recently, precisely because its players have been getting out of position. If that happens again on a screen pass for FSU, it’s likely the ‘Noles will get a relatively cheap TD for Rodemaker that doesn’t require him being a playmaker.

Florida’s Defense

What I’ve seen from Rodemaker and tried to outline above presents both an opportunity and a threat for Florida’s defense.

The Gators defense has been abysmal this year, allowing 6.7 yards per play against FBS opponents, which ranks 131st (out of 133). The defense has been particularly bad in the second half of the season, allowing more than 7.2 yards per play to 5 of its last 7 opponents. To believe this defense will stop FSU completely is probably unrealistic.

But the opportunities exist if Florida can get out of its own way. A good example is this play against LSU.

Armstrong brings a blitz, which means he has safety Bryce Thornton (#18) matched up against LSU’s best receiver, Malik Nabors. This is a mismatch, which means the blitz has to get home. But instead of getting home, linebackers Derek Wingo (#15) and Manny Nunnery (#34) trip over each other. That leaves Thornton exposed for a big completion, which is then compounded by the missed tackle.

Here’s another example. Jaydon Hill (#23) is coming on a blitz. But given the three receivers bunched to the left of the formation, that means the outside receiver – Missouri’s best player, Luther Burden – is matched up against safety Jordan Castell (#14).

Hill has to get home on this blitz, but watch as he gets caught in the traffic and is late getting into the line of sight of the QB. The result is a really easy pitch-and-catch for Brady Cook and a first down for the Tigers.

The other thing you see in that video is that Florida has the bulk of its defenders up at the line of scrimmage. The hope I’m sure is to confuse the offensive line about who is coming and to get Hill to come free. But because Cook can run, the defense has to be wary to stay in their rush lanes.

That won’t be as big of a concern against Rodemaker. That means a guy like Princely Umanmielen can pin his ears back and go after the QB on third down. It also means that Florida can likely do less in the way of trying to trick FSU about who is coming and just hope to win up-front with four or five rushers.

Takeaway

There’s one thing about FSU’s schedule thus far that should give Gators fans some hope. The Seminoles have played three one-score games this season and seven blowouts against FBS opponents. In the blowouts, the ‘Noles have won by an average of nearly 28 points per game and the smallest margin of victory was 17 points. In those blowouts, Jordan Travis averaged 8.5 yards per attempt and had a QB rating of 156.8.

But in the one-score victories, Travis averaged 8.4 yards per attempt and had a QB rating of 151.9. But the ‘Noles scoring dropped from 44.0 to 29.7 in those games. What was the biggest difference? Travis averaged 3.1 yards per rush in blowouts but just 0.3 yards per rush in the close games.

The result was a Yards Above Replacement (YAR) – my proprietary stat that takes running and passing efficiency into account – of 0.77 in the blowouts but 0.22 in the close games. Take away Travis’ running ability and his performance, and the performance of FSU’s offense, goes from playoff worthy to beatable with a decent offensive performance. And Rodemaker isn’t going to add much of anything in the run game.

The downside for the Gators is that Seminoles come into this game with the 9th ranked defense in the country in yards per play allowed and a redshirt freshman making his first collegiate start against them. You suspect they’re licking their chops to make him uncomfortable.

Florida has 19 sacks this season. FSU has that from its top four pass rushers and has 32 sacks this year (2.9 per game). That means Max Brown is going to see a lot of pressure and Rodemaker likely isn’t. Even if we assume that both play roughly to a draw, turnovers are likely to tilt in FSU’s favor just because of the amount of pressure you’d expect Brown to be under.

Florida was able to keep the game close against Missouri but it was the fumble by Brown (and to a lesser extent, the interception on an overthrow by Mertz) that eventually did the Gators in. To win this one, Florida is going to have to get some help from Rodemaker and the rest of the Seminoles.

Of course, Rodemaker spent this week trying to convince the media that he’ll be ready. A comment he made about how playing in front of 14,000 fans in high school has prepared him for this moment does seem to suggest he doesn’t exactly know what’s coming. He’s certainly experienced a raucous crowd at Doak Campbell while holding a clipboard, but it’s different when you’re behind center and the bullets start flying in the Swamp.

He also hasn’t proven anything on any sort of stage. Ironically, that is the one place where Florida does have an advantage. Brown came in last week, fumbled what looked to be the game away when Missouri quickly converted the turnover into a 30-21 lead, but then led the Gators back into position to win the game on two straight drives. That isn’t typically what you see when a young QB gets his first action because of injury.

But we’ve seen that before. When Feleipe Franks went down with an injury against Kentucky in 2019 with the Gators behind, Gator Nation collectively held its breath as Kyle Trask entered. Of course, Trask led the comeback (with a much better defense) and the Gators offense took off after that. Brown has the opportunity to do that now by building on what he did last week.

And we do have the additional Max factor. Brown is making his first start and shares a name with my 8-year old son. My Max was in the house last year for Billy Napier’s best win as Gators head coach, the opening day victory over Utah. He’s going to be in the house for this one against FSU as well.

I’ve joked on podcasts over the last couple of weeks that we’ll have to set up a GoFundMe for him to go to every game next year if the Gators pull this one out because he’d clearly be a good luck charm. And the truth is that it is going to take some significant mistakes from the Seminoles to make that a reality.

But this is a rivalry game. Florida is hungry. And Rodemaker is young just like Brown. This sets up as one of those games where it’s going to be close at the end and Florida will have a shot to win it. And I know it’s probably just my heart taking, but I think they’re going to get the job done.

Keys to a Florida Victory over FSU
Rodemaker and the Max Factor