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Brutal! Is Florida’s 2025 schedule really as bad as it seems?

When the 2024 schedules were released, it became pretty clear that not only was Florida playing one of the toughest schedules in the country, but it might actually be playing one of the toughest of all time.

Non-conference games against ACC opponents Miami and FSU (road) and Big-12 opponent Central Florida were combined with the conference gauntlet of Tennessee (road), Georgia (neutral), Texas (road), LSU and Ole Miss will serve to pressure-test the Billy Napier regime like few others have been tested before him. Well, now the same can be said for 2025.

The SEC announced this week that the schedules for 2025 will be the exact same except the location will swap next year. Combine that with the repeat non-conference opponents of Miami and FSU – this time visiting the Hurricanes on the road – and Napier now has probably the hardest two-year stretch of any coach in recent memory, all while fighting to overcome an initial 11-14 record.

I get that with that record and the upcoming schedule that Florida fans are apprehensive. But with that apprehension should come at least the whiff of opportunity. Because this sort of scheduling, combined with the evolution of the transfer portal and D.J. Lagway in the fold, could actually be an asset.

The reason I say that is because of the way college football is going to work moving forward.

If we look at the CFP rankings after last year’s conference championship games, what we see is the teams ranked 9-12 all at 10-2, then teams ranked 13-18 all at either 9-3 or 10-3. If we do the same thing for 2022, two 10-3 teams (Utah and Kansas State) were ranked 8th and 9th, ahead of USC (11-2), Penn State (10-2) and Washington (10-2).

Additionally, consider that the selection committee chose to exclude a 13-0 FSU team last year in favor of 12-1 SEC Champion Alabama based on personnel availability and schedule strength. If you don’t think they’ll do that again for the SEC if things are close towards the bottom of the playoff again, you’re crazy. That’s especially true given the difficulty of Florida’s schedule.

Given the 12-team playoff this year – and the 14-team playoff coming in 2025 – three wins is going to put a team into a logjam for a spot. That’s especially true given the reporting that the SEC and Big Ten want to eliminate automatic bids. If Florida can get to 9-3 in either of the next two seasons, the schedule makes them a no-brainer for admission.

While it feels like Florida has been in the College Football desert ever since Urban Meyer left, it’s the exclusionary nature of the sport that makes it feel that way. It’s easy to forget that the Gators have won more than 9 games in a regular season in 5 of the 13 seasons since Meyer left and would have easily eclipsed that mark in 2020 had they not played only SEC opponents because of COVID-19. In the past, those sorts of seasons obtained the result of a glorified scrimmage against Michigan or Virginia. That won’t be the case anymore.

The other aspect of this is Napier. I remember around Christmas time we did a bit on Stand Up & Holler about what we wanted from the program for Christmas, and the answer I gave was certainty around Napier. I don’t want a 6-6 season where there are reasons for him to be let go and reasons for him to stay. A 3-9 campaign will deliver the answer definitively. So will a 9-3 campaign. I’m obviously hopeful that the second result is the one we’ll see, but one in the middle will just cause consternation with an already fractionated fanbase when it comes to the head coach. This sort of schedule is going to be a test, and passing it will mean something significant.

Finally, these schedules have me excited because I usually come down to Gainesville for one game and I can’t decide which one I want to go to. Texas in the Swamp in 2025? Ole Miss right before Thanksgiving in 2024? Or maybe I change it up and decide to hit a road game in Austin or College Station or the Grove?

That is a welcome change from the experience I still remember from 2018 when I had to decide between Charleston Southern, Kentucky, Colorado State, LSU, Missouri, South Carolina and Idaho. For kid reasons I couldn’t do LSU so I wound up watching Drew Lock and Missouri carve up Florida on a miserable Saturday afternoon.

I have to admit that I was at first bummed that Florida was going to have a rough 2025 schedule when the news came out. But the more I think about it, the more excited I get. A historically decent Florida season will end up with a playoff appearance. We will definitely know whether Napier is “the guy” when either this year or next is done. And there will be a ton of games that have significant interest for fans to choose from.

Like any Gators fan, I eventually want to see the team win championships. But winning doesn’t come in a vacuum, and it certainly doesn’t come from running scared when you face a challenge. Georgia was completely unprepared for a flawed Alabama team last season because they didn’t play anyone of note leading into the SEC Championship Game. I still think they were better than that ‘Bama team and think they would have steamrolled Michigan, but it didn’t matter because it turns out playing Tennessee-Martin, Ball State, UAB and Vandy doesn’t prepare you for the big-time.

You won’t be able to say that about the Gators of 2024 and 2025, as they will have been sharpened by the best iron that the SEC can provide.