Does Florida have any hope against Texas?

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Last season, only Clemson finished the regular season with three losses and made the College Football Playoff. Teams like Indiana (11-1) and SMU (10-2) beat out SEC teams like Alabama (9-3), Ole Miss (9-3) and South Carolina (9-3), although there was some controversy with those decisions.

The reason I mention that is with Florida’s 1-3 start, they likely have crossed the threshold of being able to make the playoffs this year. But if the Gators run the table, there will be a good argument to include them regardless of the start.

But a fourth loss is a definitive stake in the heart of Florida’s playoff dreams. That means that coming off of a bye week, there isn’t any margin for error. Florida needs to come out, play well versus Texas, and bring home the win.

So is that realistic?

Statistical Comparison

After Texas’ opening week loss to Ohio State, there were lots of memes about Arch Manning and the Texas offense misfiring. But if you think Texas’ offense is anything like Florida’s, just take a look at this table.

The problem isn’t so much just the ranking differences here. It’s that for as bad as Texas was against Ohio State, the Longhorns still averaged 5.0 yards per play in that game. Florida has averaged 4.3 yards per play for the entire season. So at its worst – against an elite opponent – Texas’ offense was better than Florida’s.

The real key difference between the two teams is the defensive side of the ball. It has been well chronicled that Florida’s defense has lost the last three games while only surrendering three TDs. But if we look at the overall yards per play numbers, the Gators defense hasn’t been great.

Compare to Texas, who has been the best defense in the country in that category. This isn’t a one-off either, as the Longhorns ranked second in the category last year.

Advantage: Texas

Quarterback

Texas’ Arch Manning hasn’t been great. But using my Yards Above Replacement (YAR) stat, he’s still been above average (0.89) for the season. That’s largely attributable to averaging 4.4 yards per rush.

Florida’s D.J. Lagway has been downright awful thus far in 2025. His YAR value is -2.04 and, unlike Manning, he isn’t providing any value on the ground (0.9 yards per rush).

Yes, lots of Manning’s production came against Sam Houston (YAR = 5.57), but he was also good against San Jose State (2.24). He was actively bad against Ohio State (-1.25) and UTEP (-1.52), so he is capable of putting up a stinker.

But Lagway has been consistent in the worst way possible, with YAR scores of -1.13 against LIU, -1.01 against USF, -1.65 against LSU, and -4.70 against Miami. Not only are those values way below average, but they’re progressively getting worse.

So could Lagway have fixed a bunch during the bye week? Absolutely. But Texas and Manning are coming off of a bye as well. My guess is that they’ve worked on some of the things that have led to Manning being ineffective.

And when a QB is ineffective throwing the ball, one of the things you can do to offset that is to involve him in the running game. South Florida was able to sustain drives against the Gators by using QB Byrum Brown in that way (17 rushes, 66 yards).

So if both Manning and Lagway struggle through the air, Manning is the one who has shown an ability to bring value in other ways.

Advantage: Texas

Explosive Plays

This is where this game is likely going to be decided. Florida has been absolutely terrible at creating explosives on offense. Texas hasn’t been great either. However, both of their defenses have been good at preventing them.

The Gators have been worse than the Longhorns overall, but popping a couple of 30-plus yard plays will send Florida flying up the rankings here since we’re only four games into the season.

One of the reasons the Gators are ranked 65th in yards per play is because of the two 50-plus yard plays they’ve surrendered on the defensive side of the ball. The first was a killer – a 66-yard touchdown pass for USF when the defense was looking at the sideline for a call – but the other ended in an interception after Garrett Nussmeier completed a 65-yard pass for what looked like a dagger to Florida’s hopes.

It’s easy to dismiss those plays, but the first likely cost the Gators the game and the second should have salted the game away. These are the kinds of plays that make a game a laugher or keep an inferior team in the game.

Advantage: Texas

Takeaway

Texas is the better team. This was always going to be a tough test for Florida, even when we thought the Gators would be coming into this game hitting on all cylinders.

But the Gators offense has had some significant engine problems, and not really the kind that you fix with a bye week. At this point, a D.J. Lagway game where he isn’t actively a reason the offense is limited would be an upgrade.

Meanwhile, Texas has righted the ship – albeit against inferior opponents – since the opening loss to Ohio State. But some people act like the Buckeyes embarrassed the Longhorns to open the season. Instead, the game ended in Ohio State territory on the Longhorns’ attempt to tie the game. Texas actually outgained Ohio State, 336-203.

And so I ask you: if Ohio State was coming to The Swamp, would we have a lot of hope that the Gators would get the job done? Texas played them close, so that’s essentially the question that we’re tasked with asking here

Texas (-5.5) wins, 31-6.

Picks this year: 2-2 (2-2 ATS)

William’s Positivity Corner

I often write of my son Max, with whom I share a love for Gators football and tailgating beforehand. I write less of my older son, Hugh, mainly because he doesn’t really care about football. He’s all-baseball all the time.

With that being said, he’s never been the best player on his team. He’s enjoyed playing the game, and has brough value at the plate (mostly through walks) and on the mound, but it was pretty clear early on that the Little League World Series was out of reach. Still, the kid works at it.

Last fall, he joined a travel team for the fall at the full MLB distances (60’6” mound, 90 foot bases) and struggled, hitting .130 for the season. He struck out about a third of the time. He then spent the winter taking hitting lessons, and we could both see him improving. But it just didn’t translate on the field, as he hit .128 over the spring/summer, again striking out a ton.

But he still kept asking me to take him to the field. We’d go out there and he’d start hitting off the tee, then he’d hit off of me, and then he’d ask me when what we were doing would translate to the field. I have to be honest, I didn’t have the heart to tell him that it probably wouldn’t. That sometimes, no matter how hard you work, the results just don’t come.

But I was wrong.

Towards the end of the summer, he started to make more contact. The ball wasn’t falling much, but he was starting to hit the ball with some authority. That continued as fall practice began, and to be honest, he looked like the best hitter on the team in practice.

Then came game #1: 0-4. After the first tournament, he was 1-8 (.125) and it looked like we were headed for another rough season at the plate. But he finally broke through this weekend in our first real travel tournament of the fall, going 5-7 against pretty decent pitching competition. You could tell he was locked in, because he got down 0-2 in his first at bat on Sunday, saw the curveball out of the pitcher’s hand, and hit a groundball into center field.

I’m relaying this because I enjoy bragging on my son, but it’s not the 5-7 or the success that I’m really bragging about. By the end of every summer, my arm is usually about ready to fall off because of the amount of batting practice I’ve thrown. I’ve installed a net in our garage so he can hone his swing when I’m still at work.

Is my kid going to make it to the majors? Unlikely. But I didn’t think he had a weekend like he just put up in him either. Besides, he’s learned a lesson from the sport that take a lot of us years or even lifetimes to learn.

It’s not enough to do things one time. You have to show up day-after-day, over-and-over to see any sort of result. And sometimes that result never comes. But sometimes that result eventually does.

And when it shows up, boy does it make for a  fun weekend.