With rumors swirling around the Florida program and Billy Napier’s job status, the Gators host Mississippi State this week at The Swamp.
Normally when the Bulldogs are on the Gators schedule, we all pencil it in as an easy “W”. But given that Florida is 2-4 and Mississippi State is 4-2, I’m not sure that’s the case. Of course, Vegas has the Bulldogs as 9.5-point underdogs, so maybe I should feel better going into this one.
But given that we’ve all ridden the Billy Napier roller coaster – and given that it is completely up-in-the-air whether the Florida players will come out energized or flat with all the chatter going on this week – I have to admit that I feel ill at ease about this one for a few reasons.
The Quarterbacks
I would have laughed at you in the opening week of the season if you had told me that Mississippi State would have the better QB in this game, but six games in, not only is it true, but it’s not even all that close.
By QB rating, Blake Shapen has been significantly better than D.J. Lagway (149.4 vs. 129.9). By my Yards Above Replacement (YAR) stat, Lagway has been terrible (-1.33) while Shapen has been just slightly below average (-0.31). And if we look at Pro Football Focus’ rankings, Lagway is behind there as well with a rating of 63.1 vs. 71.5 for Shapen.
We know Lagway likely has a higher gear than Shapen, but he’s yet to show that gear yet in 2025. Could he? Sure. But it seems less and less likely as the season wears on combined with Napier’s comments this week about him not being healthy.
That means Florida doesn’t have an advantage at QB that could offset being flat or any of the team’s other limitations.
The Stats
Florida’s offense is terrible, and the stat I like looking at to measure that tells that story really well. But it also says some interesting things about Florida’s opponent this week and the Gators’ defense as well.
First, some comments on the defense.
When you have an offense as anemic as Florida’s has been, the defense gets put into compromising situations. But Florida’s defense has been objectively below average based on these particular stats. That’s particularly true through the air, where Florida is 93rd in the country against FBS opponents in yards per pass allowed.
This is not a Patrick Toney or Austin Armstrong defense. But this also isn’t last year’s defense either. It is a limited bunch that is doing a great job of preventing the opponent from cashing in on explosive plays. But I just don’t see how that dam doesn’t break eventually at some point.
Mississippi State isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, so perhaps they’re not the team to exploit the Gators defense. Indeed, when we look at Florida’s schedule, they’ve faced offenses ranked 33rd (USF), 31st (LSU), 49th (Miami), 42nd (Texas), and 21st (Texas A&M) in yards per play gained.
But again, I can’t shake the feeling that if I look at these stats, Mississippi State has been the better team thus far. They’ve certainly played inferior competition, but they gave Tennessee all they could handle taking the Vols to overtime and were just down 14-3 going into the fourth quarter on the road against A&M.
Takeaway
I have no idea what to expect from this Gators team. Hearing that your coach is going to get canned regardless of the outcome of the game can have one of two outcomes.
- You go out and play as hard as possible to send him off with a win.
- The outcome of the game doesn’t matter so you come out flat.
But here’s the thing: even if the Gators come out and play as hard as possible, I don’t see a reason for them to be favored by 9.5 points against anybody. Florida is averaging 14.2 points per game against FBS opponents. That means covering that line requires either breaking out offensively or having the defense put up a lock-down performance.
It also means Napier not sitting on the ball in the fourth quarter if the Gators are ahead, something that we’ve become accustomed to seeing on a fairly regular basis.
I think Florida gets the job done, but I also think it’s going to be a bit of a slog.
Florida (-9.5) wins, 24-20.
Picks this year: 3-3 (3-3 ATS)
