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Tennessee comes to the Swamp

Tennessee comes to the Swamp this Saturday, looking for its first win in Gainesville since 2003. How that is the case boggles the mind given some of the games that we’ve seen recently.

There was the Antonio Callaway game in 2015, where Brandon Powell took out multiple defenders as Florida pulled out an improbable victory on fourth down. There was the Heave to Cleve game, where Feleipe Franks threw an absolute bomb to Tyrie Cleveland right after Hurricane Irma had ravaged the state a few days prior.

Between the Malik Davis fumble and John Kelly drop in the Cleveland game to the Austin Pope fumble into his own end zone after a huge play in 2018, or the Trey Burton run down the sideline in 2012, this rivalry always seems to have some play that burns an enduring image in our minds.

It is interesting to me that in 2021, Florida beat Tennessee 38-14 before the Gators season fell apart. Tennessee finally broke through last season with a 38-33 win in Knoxville, but even that game featured an onsides kick recovery for Florida that could have shifted the game in the Gators favor.

What will happen this year? And can Florida re-establish itself as the big dog in this rivalry?

Tennessee Offense

Had you told me that Graham Mertz would be averaging 1.8 more yards per attempt than Joe Milton, I would have told you that you were crazy.

It’s not that I’m incredibly high on Milton. It’s that the assumption was that Josh Heupel’s offense would open up things for Milton in a way that his stats would look okay even if he wasn’t as good as Hendon Hooker.

Things get a lot tighter though if you eliminate the cupcake games. Milton averaged 6.7 yards per attempt against Virginia while Mertz averaged 7.6 against Utah. But how they came to those numbers is the thing I think we need to examine more closely.

This is the second play of Tennessee’s game against Virginia. It’s second-and-4 after Tennessee opened up with a 6-yard run. Look at Virginia’s defensive alignment! They have four men in the box and the nearest corner to the two receivers at the top of the screen is 9 yards away.

The result is a really easy swing pass for a first down. The thing to notice is that Milton’s pass doesn’t hit his receiver directly or lead him towards the line of scrimmage. That limits his ability to turn the corner and limits the gain to six yards instead of potentially generating more yards after the catch.

Tennessee’s response to this type of defensive alignment was twofold. First, they gave the ball to their running back.

On this play, Virginia has six men in the box to Tennessee’s five offensive linemen. The Volunteer’s left tackle charges upfield to a linebacker, leaving the defensive end to read whether the ball is given to the running back or held onto by the QB. Milton hands the ball off and the defensive end can’t get back into the play because the hole generated by the Volunteer’s offensive line is so big. The result is that the Vol’s running back doesn’t get touched until he is 15 yards downfield.

Tennessee’s opening touchdown drive consisted of five runs up the middle and three swing passes. This was effective and set up what the Vols tried two drives later.

On this play, Virginia’s linebackers bite on the playaction on first-and-10. That leaves five defensive backs for four wide receivers. If Milton has time to throw (he does here), he basically just picks whatever deep receiver doesn’t see safety help. In this case, it’s Bru McCoy, who blows past the defensive back in coverage. McCoy drops a sure and perfect TD pass.

If you were to add this one throw to Milton’s line, he ends up averaging 9.6 yards per attempt in this game and the narrative that we see coming into this tilt against Florida is completely different.

Versus Florida’ Defense

You can’t look at one game’s stats (I’m ignoring the cupcake game) and really get a feel for the Gators defense. What you can do is look at their coach’s history and wonder about whether that scheme will work.

Despite giving up 49 points, Virginia showed a specific way to defend the Vols that I illustrated above. They wanted Tennessee to run the ball against limited fronts and force the Vols to execute on long drives while moving slowly down the field. It was somewhat successful, as Tennessee’s first four touchdown drives were 8, 13, 9 and 10 plays.

This is an interesting dichotomy coming into this game because Austin Armstrong has almost zero track record of playing a defense like Virginia did two weeks ago. He is ultra-aggressive, blitzing to a point where his Southern Miss defense in 2022 was 114th in explosive (20-plus yard) plays surrendered.

The trade-off was that his defense at Southern Miss got to the QB, something Florida has yet to do. After zero sacks against Utah and only two against McNeese State – juxtaposed with the huge opening play surrendered against Utah – it is fair to wonder whether the trade-off is a good one for this particular Florida defense.

At the same time, Armstrong’s defenses forced Utah into 3-13 and McNeese State into 2-10 on third down attempts. If that trend continues, Tennessee won’t be able to put together any long drives, which means they’ll have to connect on the big plays to score significant points against the Gators.

I often talk about Yards Above Replacement (YAR) – my proprietary stat that takes both a QBs running and throwing ability into account – when grading QB performance. The reason is that I believe a QBs ability to avoid sacks and be mobile enough that he can make a difference with his legs is a really valuable asset.

That becomes doubly important when you’re used to playing a bunch of man-to-man defense, as Florida does. That showed up on perhaps the most important third down in the Utah game. Mertz had just thrown an interception that hit off Ricky Pearsall. With Florida already down 17-3, it was absolutely critical that the defense keep Utah to a field goal. They forced a third down play and thwarted the initial action.

Florida just rushes four here and isn’t playing straight man-to-man. But because most of the Utah offense flows to the QBs left, the defenders drift that way, leaving safety Miguel Mitchell (#10) and corner Jaydon Hill (#23) with an unwinnable choice. If they separate from their man to get the QB running towards the end zone, he dumps the ball to them. If they don’t separate, the QB runs into the endzone.

And this is where the lack of pressure really kills Florida. Because the front-four defenders got absolutely stoned, the Utah QB is able to get outside the pocket and put the defensive backs into that pickle. If this continues, the Gators aren’t going to force a 3-13 on third down again against the Vols.

Prediction

If you’d have asked me whether Florida had a shot in this game after Tennessee demolished Virginia and the Gators looked inept against Utah, I would have laughed at you. All we have since then is cupcake games against Austin Peay and McNeese State as data points and the question I’m asking is should we put that much weight in those games?

I’m not sure that we should.

Yes, Milton has struggled this year, but I suspect a lot of that is what Virginia and Austin Peay have tried to do to him. I doubt that Austin Armstrong is going to defend him in the same way, which means Tennessee is going to get to take some deep shots. Even if Armstrong does try that, will Florida’s front-four be able to hold up if Tennessee tries to run them out of it?

At the same time, I wrote a couple of weeks ago that I have very little faith in Tennessee’s defense. The reason is that they have only two players from their 2021 recruiting class on the defensive side of the roster in any capacity. I understand the new dynamics associated with the transfer portal, but that level of attrition is going to catch up with them.

Will they be able to hold up in what is going to be a muggy night in Gainesville?

What is the path for a Florida win?

We all know the limitations for Graham Mertz. That means Billy Napier is going to have to rely on the running game. As the esteemed Nick Knudsen likes to trumpet week after week, “Feed #2, Feed #7”. That shortens the number of possessions for Tennessee and makes them execute with limited chances.

This is why Virginia played so far off of the Vols receivers. I’m just not sure that is in Austin Armstrong’s nature or plays to the strength of what Florida likes to do on that side of the ball. His defense is going to either have to get some key turnovers or do something it isn’t accustomed to.

I think that means Tennessee is going to hit a few huge plays. Florida will be especially susceptible to that in the second half as defenders start to get tired. That’s why I think Florida keeps it close through three quarters, but the Vols break away in the fourth after a Mertz turnover.

Tennessee (-6.5) wins, 31-21.